The FTSE 2006

The FTSE, Monday 13th March 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5907. up 52pts [0.89%].
Range: 5838 - 5909.

We might be over but the FTSE's still has its coat tail caught on the fence. It's going to take one sharp tug to carry on and up and move beyond 5920, and I don't feel overly confident that Monday is that day.

Last 5 TD: up 49pts [0.84%].
On the month: up 116pts [2.01%].

Friday's DOW:
11,076, up 104pts [0.95%].

Last 5 TD: up 55pts [0.51%].
On the month: up 83pts [0.77%].

Friday's S&P 500
1281.6, up 9.4pts [0.73%]

Last 5 TD: down 5.63pts [0.45%]
On the month: up 0.94pts [0.07%] Well behind the rest of the markets.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's anticipated a rise. Monday's favours a dip by end of play.

The PoM System: -0.50, interpretation: a weak possibility of a dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Bovis Homes
Candover Investments
John Laing
Nautical Petroleum

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI Feb.
09:30 UK ODPM House Prices Jan.

The FTSE Monday based on present news and data: the American markets rise on Friday has already been factored in, so no favors in the morning; charts favour a dip and likewise the PoM, although in both cases the data and prediction is weak; companies reporting and economic data are tame.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? As it stands, there'rs no strong indication eitherway so I'll stay out of the market.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
this should make the FTSE jump!

The Financial Mail also reports that specialist venture capital groups are weighing up a GBP100 billion bid for Vodafone.
 
A theory on spread range for CFDs.
Like most, I do not have real time FT100 index.
I have noticed that City Index appear to manipulate the position of the spread of 4 points.
Presumably at the start today they have mainly long positions so it is desirable to make the sell option lower. As the spread is maintained at a fixed level, the maximum spread early on was 5941-5945. At the same point the actual index hit 5946+
The potential profit for CI on anyone closing at that point is therefore 5+ points.
I would bet that if the market weakens the spread will move to the other side of the range but only after the punters average position becomes negative.

Then of course they are the professionals and we pick up the crumbs.

Anyone out there with real time FT100 index could check and comment.
 
Last edited:
Morris said:
No targets of the FTSE then ?
Click to expand...

Closed my NDX long for a good gain and i am looking to short from here to 6000 on the FTSE. Sure we will see 6000 this week and I expect a pullback from there.
 
Morris said:
Aspex, look at the FTSE futures chart this am.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that the futures quote includes implied interest to the expiry date.
I was just looking at the CFD spread which has no overlying cost of money.
CFDs have no expiry and reflect directly the live market - or are supposed to.
Perhaps I am wrong.
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 14th March 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5952. up 44pts [0.76%].
Range: 5907 - 5959.

Well Monday saw the FTSE pull away from the 5900 fence and is now ideally placed, should circumstances prove favourable, to make a move towards 6000.

Last 5 TD: up 55pts [0.94%].
On the month: up 161pts [2.77%].

Note: last 3 TD, up 139pts [2.42%]. It's rare we see the FTSE this strong over this short a period.

Monday's DOW:
11,076, finished at evens.

Last 5 TD: up 118pts [1.08%].
On the month: up 83pts [0.77%].

Monday's S&P 500
1284.13, up 2.55pts [0.02%].

Last 5 TD: up 5.89pts [0.45%].
On the month: up 3.49pts [0.27%].

News items of note:
London close: Footsie gears up to test 6,000
LONDON (ShareCast) - A wave of bid activity got the rumour mill going today, with a number of companies caught up in the excitement as Vodafone attracted buyers and LSE gained almost a third of its value.

Vodafone rallied on talk that private equity bidders were considering an audacious move for the company, or its Japanese business at least, while Chris Gent's weekend departure also provided a lift.

Reports that US telecom giant Verizon Communications has approached the mobile group about buying its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless for around $40bn also gave the shares a boost.

Meanwhile old bid favourite BAA was up on the back of speculation of a bidding war for the airports operator. Reports have emerged that Australian bank Macquarie is mulling an offer to rival a consortium led by Spain's Ferrovial.

London Stock Exchange leapt more than 30% on hopes that a bid contest would drive the shares higher after it rejected a 950p per share proposal from Nasdaq late last Friday.

It is believed the stock market operator is instead holding out for a tie-up with another US rival, the New York Stock Exchange.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's favoured a dip by end of play. Tuesday's favour a dip.

The PoM System: -3.25, interpretation: a moderate possibility of a dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Antofagasta
Beazley
Cairn Energy
Cookson
Countrywide
French Connection

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE Tuesday based on present news and data: once again take overs are in the air and the market responded occordinly today; the American markets added no favours; charts and PoM favour a dip; company news should be mixed and no ecconomic news. In all, the market should move with early morning business news.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? I Will be watching the markets early morning movement with a view of going a short term Short if market news proves negitive.

Historicaly, Tuesdays, this year, one up nine down.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Morris said:
I guess the boys have a Mar expiry > 6k in mind....
Click to expand...

Umm maybe, thats this friday is it not (expiry)? I have only put on about 1/3 of my short position here and will look to add the rest at 6000+. Either way this week should be interesting.
 
aspex said:
A theory on spread range for CFDs.
Like most, I do not have real time FT100 index.
I have noticed that City Index appear to manipulate the position of the spread of 4 points.
Presumably at the start today they have mainly long positions so it is desirable to make the sell option lower. As the spread is maintained at a fixed level, the maximum spread early on was 5941-5945. At the same point the actual index hit 5946+
The potential profit for CI on anyone closing at that point is therefore 5+ points.
I would bet that if the market weakens the spread will move to the other side of the range but only after the punters average position becomes negative.

Then of course they are the professionals and we pick up the crumbs.

Anyone out there with real time FT100 index could check and comment.
Click to expand...

You can the check real time here for free:

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/futsee.php

Regards,
Zzoom.
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 15th March 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5950, down 2pts [0.04%].
Range: 5940 - 5978.

Both Monday and Tuesday saw the FTSE open up high, thereafter it failed to progress and in both cases dipped on its initial high; there's a clue there! I believe its waiting for the American markets to close the gap, and as we can see from the results below the FTSE is still ahead but not as much as earlier in the week.

Last 5 TD: up 93pts [1.59%].
On the month: up 159pts [2.73%].

Tuesday's DOW:
11,151, up 75pts [0.68%].

Last 5 TD: up 171pts [1.56%].
On the month: up 158pts [1.45%].

Tuesday's S&P 500
1297.48, up 13.35pts [1.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 21.62pts [1.68%].
On the month: up 16.84pts [1.31%].

News items of note:

FTSE closes flat as investors take profits
London main equity market closed relatively flat on Tuesday having hit a fresh five-year high in morning trade on news that Kesa Electricals had rejected an approach sent selected retailers sharply higher.

Investors traded more cautiously in the afternoon, however, following a worse-than-expected 1.3 per cent fall in US February retail sales.

This profit-taking hit the FTSE 100 which closed flat, down 2.2 points to 5,950.6 while the FTSE 250 fared much better closing 53.7 points or 0.6 per cent at 9,645.5, an all-time high, after retailers rallied in afternoon trade.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's favoured a dip. Wednesday's are unclear.

The PoM System: -0.5, interpretation: a weak possibility of a dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Brit Insurance Holdings
Laird
Melrose

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Unemployment Change Feb
09:30 UK Average Earnings

The FTSE Wednesday based on present news and data: the DOW continued to surge ahead throughout the day and a residual effect will still need to be added tomorrow morning, so expect the FTSE to open up strong; charts aare unclear and the PoM system predicts a weak dip in the market; company results may be negative as may the economic results; we are in a prime position for a stab at the 6000 mark but the profit takers are not finished; in all, it should be an intersting day.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? Nope. For me, it's neither strong one way or another, but good luck to those who are confident.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
I will call a fall during the day of up to 20 from the open but still finishing close to evens.
Not much there to profit on, so staying well clear.
Premarket was 5967 anyway.
 
true...not too much conviction as to the upside and like many bears,too scared to short at this level.I'll have to stay on the sidelines today and take a break to get out and about.
lets see what the US brings us today
 
cabrito said:
true...not too much conviction as to the upside and like many bears,too scared to short at this level.I'll have to stay on the sidelines today and take a break to get out and about.
lets see what the US brings us today
Click to expand...

Too scared to short? risk reward favours it highly here! From the magical barrier of 6000 (multi year highs) will cause a natural pullback - I am looking for 5850-5900. As someone else mentioned the March 6000 contract expiring Friday might do the trick.

Short the FTSE 5970, adding more to 6015 stop @ 6030.

Cheers
 
Notice the vols on the March FTSE are still heavier than the June. Methinks the boys want it higher for expiry.

Mar 49k

June 39k so far today.
 
Morris said:
Notice the vols on the March FTSE are still heavier than the June. Methinks the boys want it higher for expiry.

Mar 49k

June 39k so far today.
Click to expand...

Umm... guess the open interest on the March 6025 calls is quite heavy as well...
 
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