The Dow - May 23-27 2005
- Thread starter TheBramble
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leeshindig
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great minds wampus 
going a bit slow for my liking though....hope it doesnt shake me out
and the pivots down at 463...maybe tomorrow?
going a bit slow for my liking though....hope it doesnt shake me outand the pivots down at 463...maybe tomorrow?
leeshindig
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hmm...closed for + 10.....got to do something soon and just not getting the "down" feeling from some stocks I watch for clues.....
see yous later...
see yous later...
A tough day again? If you ignore the opening action then 40 points range again today.
Looking very overbought at the open which led to that initial drop back to 500.
That second test of 500 was looking very oversold, but with the general lack of interest from buyers or sellers I wouldn't have gone long there today.
It could have been worth 45 points max but only if you timed the entry and exit right at the extremes.
Let's hope this indecision stops soon and we see some nice moves again!
Looking very overbought at the open which led to that initial drop back to 500.
That second test of 500 was looking very oversold, but with the general lack of interest from buyers or sellers I wouldn't have gone long there today.
It could have been worth 45 points max but only if you timed the entry and exit right at the extremes.
Let's hope this indecision stops soon and we see some nice moves again!
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TheBramble
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Yet another non-trading day on the Index (for me). The 're-test' of 500 Support (and I use quotes deliberately) was without any appropriately supporting volume.
This lack of interest was borne out by subsequent low volume and narrow price action.
I feel the need to point back to my earlier post
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=180663&postcount=113
and the comment I made there about yesterday's action:-
The question that needs to be asked if this is the case is, at what point do they big boys want to unload?
Well, they'll signal that soon enough. A move toward 11000 and start bailing out when the unwashed masses start getting on board.
This lack of interest was borne out by subsequent low volume and narrow price action.
I feel the need to point back to my earlier post
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=180663&postcount=113
and the comment I made there about yesterday's action:-
certainly seems to be equally applicable to today's action. Passive accumulation. Is such a thing possible on an index?TheBramblyOne said:
The question that needs to be asked if this is the case is, at what point do they big boys want to unload?
Well, they'll signal that soon enough. A move toward 11000 and start bailing out when the unwashed masses start getting on board.
TheBramble
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Cash or Future
It occurs to me that although the majority of posters on this thread are charting/quoting the Dow cash - most are actually trading futures/minis etc.
Would it be useful or worthwhile to consider separate threads for cash and for futures or is everyone OK with it as it currently is?
It occurs to me that although the majority of posters on this thread are charting/quoting the Dow cash - most are actually trading futures/minis etc.
Would it be useful or worthwhile to consider separate threads for cash and for futures or is everyone OK with it as it currently is?
For VIX followers, Larry Connors second VIX turning point set-up triggered last night.
VIX opened at 12.05, closed at 12.24. So it closed down but above the opening -Trigger 1
The 10 day MA is 13.7, therefore 90% = 12.33, so it closed below the 90% level - Trigger 2
So maybe today is the day for the reversal, but remember the VIX is a relative indicator not an absolute. The market can stay stretched too far, for as long as it wants to !!
regards, G McA
VIX opened at 12.05, closed at 12.24. So it closed down but above the opening -Trigger 1
The 10 day MA is 13.7, therefore 90% = 12.33, so it closed below the 90% level - Trigger 2
So maybe today is the day for the reversal, but remember the VIX is a relative indicator not an absolute. The market can stay stretched too far, for as long as it wants to !!
regards, G McA
peterpr
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TheBramble said:
I monitor the cash index - mainly though the IB arbitrage meter - to get a feel for who is leading who and to stay in tune with what is actually happening (that's the intention anyway
). However, I only trade the futures and whenever I refer to price it is the futures price.There's another problem too: Trading timeframe - and it crops up everywhere. My trading is focused strictly intra-day so any comments I make about longer timeframes are intended only to 'set the scene' so to speak for the current or coming session. For example, I regard 15 -30 points in the bag twice in a day as a damn good day and rarely hold any position overnight. I sometimes get the impression that others wouldn't stir themselves for such paltry fare (tongue in cheek smilie needed again :!: ).
It's probably impractical to have separate threads for position/swing/day and cash/futures though. The important thing is for the frame of reference of posters to be clear because cross-fertilisation from different perspectivescan be useful, just so long as it doesn't result in a 'cross-puposes' dialog
peterpr
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My perspective for today:
In spite of foottsie taking a dive as I write, I still have Justyn's bull flag nagging away. Don't forget that today is going to be a half day for all practical purposes since most will be looking to get away early for the US Memorial Day long weekend. That says to me that we are unlikely to get a major move either way and that everyone will want to leave for a happy holiday. Steadilly tightening daily ranges indicate 'coiling' for a big move but I see it as more likely to come after the holiday. Which way? - no idea but:
1. A 'correction' is becoming overdue - indicaing down
2. Big down moves are often preceded by spikes (Kill the bears - no one must make money on the way down syndrome and all that) indicating another largish day up
3. The present retrace from the Mrch highs is in no mans land and we haven't really had a blow-off spike - from my time perspective anyway) indicating up etc etc. I could go on but won't.
On balance I still favour a bit more upside before a sharp (several hundred points) down move.
In spite of foottsie taking a dive as I write, I still have Justyn's bull flag nagging away. Don't forget that today is going to be a half day for all practical purposes since most will be looking to get away early for the US Memorial Day long weekend. That says to me that we are unlikely to get a major move either way and that everyone will want to leave for a happy holiday. Steadilly tightening daily ranges indicate 'coiling' for a big move but I see it as more likely to come after the holiday. Which way? - no idea but:
1. A 'correction' is becoming overdue - indicaing down
2. Big down moves are often preceded by spikes (Kill the bears - no one must make money on the way down syndrome and all that) indicating another largish day up
3. The present retrace from the Mrch highs is in no mans land and we haven't really had a blow-off spike - from my time perspective anyway) indicating up etc etc. I could go on but won't.
On balance I still favour a bit more upside before a sharp (several hundred points) down move.
[
There's another problem too: Trading timeframe - and it crops up everywhere. My trading is focused strictly intra-day so any comments I make about longer timeframes are intended only to 'set the scene' so to speak for the current or coming session. For example, I regard 15 -30 points in the bag twice in a day as a damn good day and rarely hold any position overnight. I sometimes get the impression that others wouldn't stir themselves for such paltry fare (tongue in cheek smilie needed again :!: ).
It's probably impractical to have separate threads for position/swing/day and cash/futures though. The important thing is for the frame of reference of posters to be clear because cross-fertilisation from different perspectivescan be useful, just so long as it doesn't result in a 'cross-puposes' dialog[/QUOTE]
I agree with you, its good to see various points of view and time frame. I still do SB simply because that was the way I got started. The DOW is possible to win on intraday SB if you can catch the swings as it has enough swing to play. On the FTSE i gave that up long ago. However I just got a newsletter from the EWI guys who claim that the European indices are suppose to lead the US not lag. Going by today, you may well be right.
Another reason I do intraday is that I found most brokers' software rather erratic. At times they stop me out when I am not watching and I had to call them up and stick my fingers in the air to get my money back. Most of the time its their fault and they still make me pay. So now I watch them like a hawk. On days when their software fail I call them up to stop the position immediately. I am sure many people do not know that and they would love to wipe out my account otherwise and leave me to jump up and down about it.
There's another problem too: Trading timeframe - and it crops up everywhere. My trading is focused strictly intra-day so any comments I make about longer timeframes are intended only to 'set the scene' so to speak for the current or coming session. For example, I regard 15 -30 points in the bag twice in a day as a damn good day and rarely hold any position overnight. I sometimes get the impression that others wouldn't stir themselves for such paltry fare (tongue in cheek smilie needed again :!: ).
It's probably impractical to have separate threads for position/swing/day and cash/futures though. The important thing is for the frame of reference of posters to be clear because cross-fertilisation from different perspectivescan be useful, just so long as it doesn't result in a 'cross-puposes' dialog[/QUOTE]
I agree with you, its good to see various points of view and time frame. I still do SB simply because that was the way I got started. The DOW is possible to win on intraday SB if you can catch the swings as it has enough swing to play. On the FTSE i gave that up long ago. However I just got a newsletter from the EWI guys who claim that the European indices are suppose to lead the US not lag. Going by today, you may well be right.
Another reason I do intraday is that I found most brokers' software rather erratic. At times they stop me out when I am not watching and I had to call them up and stick my fingers in the air to get my money back. Most of the time its their fault and they still make me pay. So now I watch them like a hawk. On days when their software fail I call them up to stop the position immediately. I am sure many people do not know that and they would love to wipe out my account otherwise and leave me to jump up and down about it.
peterpr
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CZON said:
CZON
Have another look at my post 79.
The biggest problem with SB/CFD providers is that they have both the financial incentive and the clear ability to trade effectively against you using "insider information" (Discounting the reputational risk of doing so of course). and positions held overnight expose you to the biggest risk of them doing just that. Just think about it; the market is thin; they can see who is logged on; they know where the orders are nested. Moving their quote to complete orders/stops in one direction only is relatively simple if they know there are few people logged on and therefore likely to trade the other way. Alternatively, moving it both ways to take out nearby orders simply increases turnover for them to increase their spread earnings.
No accusations here of course, but it's a wicked old world out there and anyone trading SBs/CFD's off a providers proprietory quotes needs to understand how the whole system works. As long as you do and adjust your methods accordingly, then I agree, SB's probably can be traded effectively intra-day. I still think there is handicap involved though, especially if any part of your plan involves second guessing / wrong footing the SB provider.
peterpr said:
Totally in agreement, thats why I only do SB intraday cash quotes and keep a close eye on their pips vs the market pips and I only use market level stops. I also don't hold overnight positions at all. I won't be doing this game long as I intend to follow suit and use IB and return to margin stock trading. Thanks for the tip.
peterpr
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Trading both the AX (DAX) and YM (DOW) I've noticed how the two tend to move almost lock-step together for a hour or so after the US open. It's uncanny
The attached charts captured a few minutes ago illustrate it. You can almost trade one instrument from the chart of the other they're that close.
(Vertical orange line is the US open)
The attached charts captured a few minutes ago illustrate it. You can almost trade one instrument from the chart of the other they're that close.
(Vertical orange line is the US open)
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TheBramble
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Sorry I haven't posted earlier, but with the crazy action we have today it's hard to find time to take a break.
Went long at 10575 and sold at 11545.
Went short at 10995 and am still in at 9550. Crazy day!
Went long at 10575 and sold at 11545.
Went short at 10995 and am still in at 9550. Crazy day!
FetteredChinos
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TheBramble said:
you are some trader, tony... :cheesy:
congratulations on your 65 million points bagged today..
ordering another maserati today?
