The all new OIL thread....

[roguetrader]

'When the last bull turns bearish.....' Have you noticed how all the former oil bulls now come out and say that the price got way ahead of itself? Everyone now says; we told you so; back below $40; oil in the tankers on the sea; no more strikes in Nigeria; Arafat is dead etc. Were these the reasons the price rose to $55? That is what they would have us believe but it was a case (and still is) of demand outstripping supplies.

As I have said in the past, I would not be too surprised to see it fall to $42 before surging to new highs in record speed, demand has not been reduced and new supplies have not come online.

I suspect one of the main reasons it rose as high as it did was the speculative bids, no doubt there are fundamental issues, but the biggest factor was the speculators pushing it up as can be seen by the fact that not an awful lot has changed just perception so the speculative bid leaves and we move back to a more normal fundamentally supported price. In my humble opinion

 

[GotGold]

Some good comments here, as much about the nature of price itself as much as anything.
Lion: Yes everybody's a genius when it comes to hind-site, never a truer thing said. You CANNOT wait for confirmation in this game, markets move too bloody fast. Look at the FX market it tootles along for days then boom 100 points in 2 Mins.

 

[LION63]

I hear you LOUD and CLEAR GotGold.

 

[GotGold]

The commodities market cannot be day traded.....spreads 2 big.
They can be position traded using most momentum indicators. Risis are slow and steady, dead easy to get on. Falls can be very sudden. You must always have a stop under (or over) the market.

I rarely use indicators, just use the price action.

FX market cannot be traded with moving averages, moves are too sudden. It might work for a while, but chances are you'll eventually be caught out big.

 

[JumpOff]

$1 or less.

What if TechCo accounce a fuel cell that uses water will be on the market in 6 months...

Not beyond the bounds of possibility.

JonnyT

Fuel cells are not going to solve the oil supply issue. Fuel cells burn hydrogen. Hydrogen is often confused as a fuel source, when actually - it is a storage mechanism. Energy is used up separating the H from the O. 100 calories in --> 60 calories stored as hydrogen. This is just like methanol from corn - takes more energy to make that you get out of it.

Now if we can find an effecient way to generate electricity via wind, solar, or geothermal differences, then we can really separate the H cheaply. But so far , none of this is commercially viable.

JO

 

[Strategic Trader]

what leading indicators are used for oil trading and anyone trading the oil curve

 

[GotGold]

We're looking at a buy signal here....

 

[The Beyonder]

$1 or less.

What if TechCo accounce a fuel cell that uses water will be on the market in 6 months...

Regardless of how efficient it is or not as per JumpOff's post, it just wouldn't happen.

Oil has too many interested parties:

- powerful companies like Exxon, ChevronTexaco, BP, Shell ...
- powerful people like Pres Bush and his cronies, Sultan of Brunei
- powerful countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia

There's no way they would all sit around crossing their fingers and toes whilst their very existence is blown out the water.

TechCo (whoever they are) would be wiped off the face of the earth.

 

[wisestguy]

the beyonder as in marvel comics ?

 

[The Beyonder]

the beyonder as in marvel comics ?

Indeed, arguably the most powerful being of them all.

 

[rustic1]

Hi all

Great to see an Oil thread I see the but signal, also Daily sentiment has just turned up. From EW we are in wave 5 still quite new to this though. I like trading oil I know it is volatile but many points to be had both daily or over a longer period.Even though the spreads are big 8 on D4F I still find it very profitable to nip in and out a few times a week sometimes daily.

Rustic