Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[Achilles]

Hi CC,
I got burnt in the GBP/ CHF short trade last week. Twice the sell order got triggered and both times the price reversed immediately and took out my SL of 50pips (1st trade) and 70 pips (2nd Trade). Somehow, my winnings are small and loosers are big and as such overall I am in negative.

Cheers
Novice 198

Try looking at another pair. GBPCHF does give some good moves, with a range of 200+ pips a day coming frequently. However, last week you would have been be selling into support so you need to beware of the bounces - maybe try a larger stop loss (1hr MA), and reduce your position size until you are comfortably gaining bigger winners than losers. You can see that despite it's bounces up GBPCHF is still only just above it's lows, so if you'd somehow held on to your positions you should've been in profit.

 

[novice198]

Try looking at another pair. GBPCHF does give some good moves, with a range of 200+ pips a day coming frequently. However, last week you would have been be selling into support so you need to beware of the bounces - maybe try a larger stop loss (1hr MA), and reduce your position size until you are comfortably gaining bigger winners than losers. You can see that despite it's bounces up GBPCHF is still only just above it's lows, so if you'd somehow held on to your positions you should've been in profit.

Thanks for the analysis.
This week already chalked up another loss on live account EUR USD. I preferred to go long on EU instead of EG as EU paired the stronger currency with the weaker. Enter long @ 1.3777 with 35 pips SL. Within one hour trade was over with 1.5% down the drain.

So far 80% losses with this system. Even if I take one to two trades per week at this rate it is matter of time , when the 10K account is blown up.

 

[Achilles]

Thanks for the analysis.
This week already chalked up another loss on live account EUR USD. I preferred to go long on EU instead of EG as EU paired the stronger currency with the weaker. Enter long @ 1.3777 with 35 pips SL. Within one hour trade was over with 1.5% down the drain.

So far 80% losses with this system. Even if I take one to two trades per week at this rate it is matter of time , when the 10K account is blown up.

It seems you are using the 3 ducks on their own as a system. I'm sure Captain Currency has said before that you need to use this system with your own analysis and reading of the situation.

You must look at supports and resistances on all timeframes as the first step way before any trade is entered. Yes, the trend in EURUSD is up, but it will not move in a straight line. In a similar way to the previous trade you have bought into resistance. There is notable resitance around the 1.38 level. Look at the weekly chart (attached). In May-Jul 2009 this level became support. Once this broke at beginning of Feb 2010 it changed to resistance, and therefore on it's recent run up it is a natural place for a pullback. This first test of this level was not the place to go long.

Also I've found it's best to wait for an entry closer to the 1 hr 60ma, so you give the trade further to move up and can keep a good stop. Once the price moves away from the ma it often comes back to test it at a higher level a day or so later so that's the time to get long if all your other rules are met.

EURUSD has gone up nearly everyday for 3 weeks gaining 1000 pips. You're high % losses must be telling you something is not right. Until you're getting consistent winners, reduce your position size, otherwise you're right that you will blow the account.

 

[novice198]

It seems you are using the 3 ducks on their own as a system. I'm sure Captain Currency has said before that you need to use this system with your own analysis and reading of the situation.

You must look at supports and resistances on all timeframes as the first step way before any trade is entered. Yes, the trend in EURUSD is up, but it will not move in a straight line. In a similar way to the previous trade you have bought into resistance. There is notable resitance around the 1.38 level. Look at the weekly chart (attached). In May-Jul 2009 this level became support. Once this broke at beginning of Feb 2010 it changed to resistance, and therefore on it's recent run up it is a natural place for a pullback. This first test of this level was not the place to go long.

Also I've found it's best to wait for an entry closer to the 1 hr 60ma, so you give the trade further to move up and can keep a good stop. Once the price moves away from the ma it often comes back to test it at a higher level a day or so later so that's the time to get long if all your other rules are met.

EURUSD has gone up nearly everyday for 3 weeks gaining 1000 pips. You're high % losses must be telling you something is not right. Until you're getting consistent winners, reduce your position size, otherwise you're right that you will blow the account.

Thanks for the analysis, which is much appreciated. I did draw the Fib and the 61.8 was at 1.3893 and my resistance was at 1.3863 and as such I had planned to take profit at 1.3850. Pic attached. Alas it seems there is wide gap between my understanding of S&R and the way the PA is behaving.

Noted your views on PA going too far away from 1H 60 SMA and as such we should wait for same to come closer to 60SMA and then look for the lining up 3 ducks.

Cheers

 

[bangkoker]

Novice198,
You talk of a 10k account. If you are still trialing this system and or learning trading (I of course do not know you could be a seasoned expert) then if this is a real account, why not demo-trade it. If of course it is a demo account please ignore me and carry on to blow it.. essentially all I am saying is get all of your own ducks in line before you give the market your money.

Good luck:clover:

 

[forexkunta]

Also, if you had waited until PA exceeded the last swing high at 1.3804, then, the ducks would not have aligned and you would have missed the stop out.
Kent

 

[novice198]

Also, if you had waited until PA exceeded the last swing high at 1.3804, then, the ducks would not have aligned and you would have missed the stop out.
Kent

Thanks for your input. Initially, my entry was supposed to be above the 1.3800 RN, however, after seeing the small PB on 1H TF and CC's views I changed my mind and entered earlier. In hindsight the 1H PB was not even worth looking at, let alone taking action based on same. I am definitely learning from these costly mistakes. I have to learn to be patient and let the pips pass by but ensure higher probability on my side before pulling the trigger.

Once again your analysis much appreciated.

Cheers
Novice 198

 

[novice198]

Novice198,
You talk of a 10k account. If you are still trialing this system and or learning trading (I of course do not know you could be a seasoned expert) then if this is a real account, why not demo-trade it. If of course it is a demo account please ignore me and carry on to blow it.. essentially all I am saying is get all of your own ducks in line before you give the market your money.

Good luck:clover:

As a newbie I did demo trades but using various systems / methods. Thereafter changed over to live account and was up 25% in 3 months. then a couple of loosing trades got me into panic mode and since then the trading is going downhill. Maybe no more trades till I get my confidence back in the system.

Cheers
Novice 198

 

[NVP]

As a newbie I did demo trades but using various systems / methods. Thereafter changed over to live account and was up 25% in 3 months. then a couple of loosing trades got me into panic mode and since then the trading is going downhill. Maybe no more trades till I get my confidence back in the system.

Cheers
Novice 198

and start trading demo again until your confidence returns ...........you dont make any money..........but the losses are much less painful

Respect to all
N

 

[Captain Currency]

Greetings All,

Thanks for the help in answering posts

Don't forget this Friday is Non Farm Payrolls, I will be not be trading this Friday I will be playing golf instead.


Here Is My Current View On Some Currency Pairs Using The 3 Ducks Method;

Eur.Usd – Some nice moves and same as last week, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Gbp.Usd - I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Usd.Chf - I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Aud.Usd - You gotta love the Aussie when its trendy, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Usd.Cad - ummmmm a bit 50/50 and I'm not interested in this pair for the moment.

Aud.Cad - would prefer to be looking for buying opportunities if/when my 3 ducks line up.

Eur.Aud - Just going to wait and see how things develop on this pair over the next few sessions.

Eur.Cad - I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Eur.Gbp - I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Usd.Jpy - Not interested in doing business with the Jpy pairs at the moment.

Hope that helps you, keep it simple, keep it logical!


Best wishes,
Andy





These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Method is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas.

 

[NVP]

Usd.Jpy - Not interested in doing business with the Jpy pairs at the moment.

Best wishes,
Andy

Hi Andy ............not even on any Yen sell signals ?...thats the one direction we know the BoJ want it to move

BoJ....jees how apt....this is obviously lost in translation over there

Neil

 

[goose4]

3 ducks is great when the one and four are in the same trend-just as the duck crosses the 5 min enter the trade.

20 gain 20 stop loss.

Its really good two hours before london.

I would say its a 60% strike rate (you got to know about S/R too as they are a fortune teller)

Just check out the charts,usually when its just crosses the five it will explode.

 

[Skytrotter81]

What leverage does everyone use on their live accounts? I want to risk 2% of my account on any trade...so would it be best to have leverage of 1:1??? I say this because then if my stop is hit im not multiplying my loss by the leverage i a have chosen? please advise!

 

[GumRai]

What leverage does everyone use on their live accounts? I want to risk 2% of my account on any trade...so would it be best to have leverage of 1:1??? I say this because then if my stop is hit im not multiplying my loss by the leverage i a have chosen? please advise!

Please do not open a live trading account until you have a total and complete understanding of how a trading account works.
The loss on any trade is dictated by the lot position size and the placing of the stop-loss and has nothing to do with the amount of leverage. a 1 lot trade on a pair with a 20 pip stop-loss will incur the same loss whatever the leverage. BUT a 20 pip loss with one currency pair is different to another.
With 1:1 leveraged account, there is actually no leverage and so you would probably need a very large account.

 

[NVP]

3 ducks is great when the one and four are in the same trend-just as the duck crosses the 5 min enter the trade.

20 gain 20 stop loss.

Its really good two hours before london.

I would say its a 60% strike rate (you got to know about S/R too as they are a fortune teller)

Just check out the charts,usually when its just crosses the five it will explode.

hey all

just my humble opinion but I favour any signals that already have the higher TF's comfortably in position and then the lowest(trigger) TF (i.e. the 60/1 on a 5min in the case of the 3 ducks) then fires up and aligns with the higher TF's

dont chase a signal that activates on 2 TF's or more at the same time unless you know what you are doing ..............GBP is a classic for this behaviour due to its volatility

N

 

[NVP]

What leverage does everyone use on their live accounts? I want to risk 2% of my account on any trade...so would it be best to have leverage of 1:1??? I say this because then if my stop is hit im not multiplying my loss by the leverage i a have chosen? please advise!

400/1 or higher if you can get it..........(i'm kidding )

N

 

[Skytrotter81]

Please do not open a live trading account until you have a total and complete understanding of how a trading account works.
The loss on any trade is dictated by the lot position size and the placing of the stop-loss and has nothing to do with the amount of leverage. a 1 lot trade on a pair with a 20 pip stop-loss will incur the same loss whatever the leverage. BUT a 20 pip loss with one currency pair is different to another.
With 1:1 leveraged account, there is actually no leverage and so you would probably need a very large account.

Hi Keith

Thankyou for your reply. I do really need to get my head round this. Is there any chance I could get your email address to ask you a few questions? I won't pester you but I'm young and struggling with some aspects of trading and I need some help off someone experienced.

If not could you point me in the direction of a book or information that I must read or will help me understand this particular subject.

My email address is [email protected]

Where abouts in Thailand do you live? My parents have a house in Rayong.

Kind regards

Luke

 

[Tenapenny]

Hi Keith

Thankyou for your reply. I do really need to get my head round this. Is there any chance I could get your email address to ask you a few questions? I won't pester you but I'm young and struggling with some aspects of trading and I need some help off someone experienced.

If not could you point me in the direction of a book or information that I must read or will help me understand this particular subject.

My email address is [email protected]

Where abouts in Thailand do you live? My parents have a house in Rayong.

Kind regards

Luke

Hi Luke. Before you start losing money without the knowledge, try this site http://www.babypips.com/school/ it might help.

 

[Skytrotter81]

Hi Luke. Before you start losing money without the knowledge, try this site http://www.babypips.com/school/ it might help.

Hi tennapenny. Thanks for your reply. I have read most of that website and it's been brilliant. I'll explain where I'm struggling and you might be able tell me where I'm going wrong. Probably everywhere!

Hypothetical situation....

I start with £10k account. I want to risk 2%.

First I work out the pip value of the pair I want to trade. So with 10k I'd trade mini lots.

So to work out the amount of risk I would do the calculation:
Amount of pips being risked x pip value per 10k mini lot x quantity of mini lots. To take me me to my maximum risk percentage, so in this case with 10k it would be £200.

Questions...

1.when I go to enter this in metatrader in the volume section of the trade tab how does the above calculation relate what comes up I.e 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 etc? Are they the multiplier of how many lots? I.e 1 mini lot, 2 mini lots, 3 mini lots?

2. Where does the leverage come into play and how do I decide what it is? I don't want to risk more than £200 of my actual money. Everything I read says leverage is double sided and can multiply losses? Where in my risk calculation do I need to consider my leverage?

Hopefully you can give me some guidance. I'm finding putting the theory, into real life trading practice is where I'm lost at the minute. Although all of the above could be wrong for all I know!

On a brighter note I have made 406 pips paper trading in 2 weeks so at least I'm improving on the system side of things.

Any help is much appreciated.

Thanks
Luke

 

[forexkunta]

Luke,
In most metatrader accounts, the lots are figured as follows, anybody can correct me if other brokers are different:
.01 - 10 cents per pip
.02 - 20 cents
.03 - 30 cents
.1 - 1 dollar per pip
.2 - 2 dollars per pips
1 - 10 dollars per pip
2 - 20 dollars per pip. ect.....
That is how they calculate with my broker. And it also depends on the currency pair you are trading, Most cross pairs are higher or lower than that per pip, JPY crosses are a little higher per pip, others are a little lower. If you need specifics, your brokers website should have a chart that explains this, or you can call them to get specific.
Kent

Hi tennapenny. Thanks for your reply. I have read most of that website and it's been brilliant. I'll explain where I'm struggling and you might be able tell me where I'm going wrong. Probably everywhere!

Hypothetical situation....

I start with £10k account. I want to risk 2%.

First I work out the pip value of the pair I want to trade. So with 10k I'd trade mini lots.

So to work out the amount of risk I would do the calculation:
Amount of pips being risked x pip value per 10k mini lot x quantity of mini lots. To take me me to my maximum risk percentage, so in this case with 10k it would be £200.

Questions...

1.when I go to enter this in metatrader in the volume section of the trade tab how does the above calculation relate what comes up I.e 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 etc? Are they the multiplier of how many lots? I.e 1 mini lot, 2 mini lots, 3 mini lots?

2. Where does the leverage come into play and how do I decide what it is? I don't want to risk more than £200 of my actual money. Everything I read says leverage is double sided and can multiply losses? Where in my risk calculation do I need to consider my leverage?

Hopefully you can give me some guidance. I'm finding putting the theory, into real life trading practice is where I'm lost at the minute. Although all of the above could be wrong for all I know!

On a brighter note I have made 406 pips paper trading in 2 weeks so at least I'm improving on the system side of things.

Any help is much appreciated.

Thanks
Luke