Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[Adecco]

So presumably we should not trade US pair on wednesday? Is that an interest rate announcement day yes? Or some other announcement?

 

[csc2009]

Yes, it's the FOMC minute which will give a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. So watch out any US pair.

 

[Adecco]

Yes, it's the FOMC minute which will give a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. So watch out any US pair.

Ok - Im slightly confused. WHat is FOMC minute?

Just so i understand this...the announcement tomorrow is NOT a US Interest rate announcement? Or is it?

Following the 3 ducks rules you are not supposed to trade a relevant currency on the day of its interest rate announcement?

So if tomorrows announcement is not an interest rate announcement then going by the rules we can still trade US pairs tomorrow yes?
And if not - then does that mean this is in fact an additional day we should not trade (on US pairs)?

 

[Gela]

Minutes

These are the summary minutes from the last April meeting. Not an interest rate announcement. Sometimes the market looks at the minutes for some more clarification or hidden language, or just confirmation. From what I have seen the dollar moves around the minutes but not drastically. I'd say if you are in a dollar trade stay in if not wait for the release and then enter.
Also, Yellen is giving a commencement speech that we can keep our eye on.

This week is kinda thin on real economic news, but there are 7 speeches from different central bankers world wide. As Jens Weismann from the German Bundesbank said yesterday: You can influence currencies and rates with words, but that does not solve the underlying problems.....

Ok - Im slightly confused. WHat is FOMC minute?

Just so i understand this...the announcement tomorrow is NOT a US Interest rate announcement? Or is it?

Following the 3 ducks rules you are not supposed to trade a relevant currency on the day of its interest rate announcement?

So if tomorrows announcement is not an interest rate announcement then going by the rules we can still trade US pairs tomorrow yes?
And if not - then does that mean this is in fact an additional day we should not trade (on US pairs)?

 

[Captain Currency]

Howdy Traders,

I know we've got some very wise and helpful traders on this thread so feel free to answer or give your opinion on posts in this thread, I don't get too many chances to go through every post let alone answer'em ...

bullish ?.

Howdy Stephen, Usd Bullish? ohhhh I'll try and follow what the chart says rather than what my head thinks but would loves to see Eur.Usd break and hold below that 1.3640 area in the coming days/week so I guess my head is Usd Bullish ...

I just read about the new US law FATCA, that will be enacted on July 1, 2014 ....

Maybe post that Q on the main forum Gela, no doubt there will be traders that will be able to give you a solid answer.

Ok - Im slightly confused. WHat is FOMC minute?

For your own sake Adecco and so you get a better idea what the FOMC minutes are all about and how it works, do a google search, it always good to know what can influence a currency.

Just so i understand this...the announcement tomorrow is NOT a US Interest rate announcement? Or is it?

The minutes are not not the interest rate statement, the rate statement happened back in April.

Following the 3 ducks rules you are not supposed to trade a relevant currency on the day of its interest rate announcement?

I wouldn't but others will bend the rules ...

So if tomorrows announcement is not an interest rate announcement then going by the rules we can still trade US pairs tomorrow yes?

Gotta use your discretion, your call, you're your own Boss

Andy
Captain Currency

 

[csc2009]

I'm more worried about BoJ Interest Rate Decision will announced by the Bank of Japan tomorrow early morning. What anyone think about how will affect JPY?

 

[peeterwoolf]

I'm more worried about BoJ Interest Rate Decision will announced by the Bank of Japan tomorrow early morning. What anyone think about how will affect JPY?

Early morning? I did not know that.

 

[Captain Currency]

A bit like writing a Business Plan (a pain in the backside), writing some sort of Trading Plan can only be a good idea. A plan that reminds the trader what they can and can't do when they are in the trading hot-seat.

This pdf is very good and well worth downloading: Trading Plan Template by Tim Wilcox (timsk)

Andy
Captain Currency

 

[csc2009]

29 pages, that was some reading.

 

[peeterwoolf]

I was expecting more movement on any USD pairs after FOMC minutes.

 

[Gela]

I have a question maybe you guys can help with.

I use my own strength analysis, similar to NVPs, but I am not sure how to mix the different time frames.

For instance if I do my analysis shortly before the 8am NY open on the 4 hour chart. Can I then use it all day long and will it be valid for the 4hr, 1hr and 5 min 3 ducks? Or should I measure strength on the 1 hour and reassess constantly. Or maybe even go up to the daily trends?
I realize that all over trends and currency strength don't change suddenly but I am not sure how to incorporate it exactly. For instance the JPY started very strong at the beginning of the week but than gave in at the end.

I am a firm believer in trend and momentum trading but also know that we have to look at strength to make it work in our favor. Just trying to fine tune the different elements.

Watch out early next week for the fall-out from the EU and Ukrainian elections. Might make the JPY stronger again as a safe haven currency....

 

[qwertyuiop1]

Hi Captain.

Are we supposed to avoid trading bank holidays ? This Monday is a bank holiday in uk.

 

[NVP]

I have a question maybe you guys can help with.

I use my own strength analysis, similar to NVPs, but I am not sure how to mix the different time frames.

For instance if I do my analysis shortly before the 8am NY open on the 4 hour chart. Can I then use it all day long and will it be valid for the 4hr, 1hr and 5 min 3 ducks? Or should I measure strength on the 1 hour and reassess constantly. Or maybe even go up to the daily trends?
I realize that all over trends and currency strength don't change suddenly but I am not sure how to incorporate it exactly. For instance the JPY started very strong at the beginning of the week but than gave in at the end.

I am a firm believer in trend and momentum trading but also know that we have to look at strength to make it work in our favor. Just trying to fine tune the different elements.

Watch out early next week for the fall-out from the EU and Ukrainian elections. Might make the JPY stronger again as a safe haven currency....

Hi Gela

I dont want to get into this on Caps thread as that is distracting to his crew

Cap uses three ducks / TF's ...........2 are the higher TF trends and then the 5min is the trigger

I would suggest if you are going to build a strategy you need at least one higher TF to set the overall trend for what you do in lower TF's ............otherwise you will just simply chase up and down hunting buys and sells indicriminately

if you are using say 5min as the trigger .....I would say be on the 1 hour minimum as the next higher TF / trend setting

N

 

[NVP]

heres that 4hr duck on the 60ma for last week ..........

I see 2 big players in the week on caps 3 ducks ......the AUD sells and the GBP buys

what do you see ?

N

 

[Captain Currency]

PIG-HEADEDNESS .... I'd say a fine quality for a trader to posses! Also repetitively called: self-control and self-discipline. Be warned both are easier said than done, but no doubt they are the 2 SELFIE's (self-control and self-discipline) which can make a positive difference to your trading.

Have a great weekend Duck Hunters,

Andy
Captain Currency

 

[peeterwoolf]

Nice post, Captain!

 

[Captain Currency]

Ugly Duckling Syndrome effecting the Eur.Gbp pair, just a tad 50/50ish looking at the moment (see chart below).

Would like some clear direction, roll on those Interest Rate Statements for the Euro and GBP, both statements will be released Thursday 5th June.

Andy
Captain Currency

 

[csc2009]

Yes, tomorrow is the day.

 

[peeterwoolf]

Hi Captain, what is Ugly Duckling Syndrome?

 

[Captain Currency]

Get your hammer ready Duck Hunters ...

If the Euro rallies back up, hit it with a hammer! Over the next few days selling into Euro rallies or selling break-outs might just be a simple but profitable plan.

At the moment it looks like our Ducks would favor:

selling set-ups on these major pairs:
Eur.Usd (price below 4hr sma)
Eur.Jpy (price below 4hr sma)

selling set-ups on these cross pairs:
Eur.Gbp (price below 4hr sma)


Eur.Usd: A Leg Down ...
I'd really love to see the Euro drifting lower, support at 1.3500 is just asking to be broken and those Bears are itching to take a leg down to 1.3475 In the coming days/weeks (see chart below).

That's my opinion, hopefully you'll manage to pick up 1 or 2 winners when your Ducks line up.

Andy
Captain Currency





These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use or reliance on such information.