Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[rsh01]

I dont see anything like "DUMB"!!! You know this so it sounds dumb for u. No one is Master in Everything.

Next time dont be soo rude with newbies..

~ you cannot be bothered to read the thread before asking a question, expecting someone else who has read the thread to provide the answer
~ you will believe whatever a complete stranger tells you on a forum
~ you cannot be bothered to look at trend history of one chart for trend analysis....which would take all of ooh say 10mins
~ you cannot be bothered to test it for more than a few mins, over 2 days
~ you cannot be bothered to post a chart of your failed trades
~ you spell 'didn't' as 'din'

in light of the above, i think my use of the word dumb was wholly justified.

i'm done with you. g/l.

 

[yogesh12]

~ you cannot be bothered to read the thread before asking a question, expecting someone else who has read the thread to provide the answer
~ you will believe whatever a complete stranger tells you on a forum
~ you cannot be bothered to look at trend history of one chart for trend analysis....which would take all of ooh say 10mins
~ you cannot be bothered to test it for more than a few mins, over 2 days
~ you cannot be bothered to post a chart of your failed trades
~ you spell 'didn't' as 'din'

in light of the above, i think my use of the word dumb was wholly justified.

i'm done with you. g/l.

Thanks for pointing out those..

 

[stephensteve]

Calm down,,,,calm down,,,,!!!!!!!!!!!!!

let's get back to some Duck hunting guys hahahahahahaha

The Aussie/US is looking interesting...am unable to post a chart though, take a look,

thanks, Steve

 

[triplepack]

Calm down,,,,calm down,,,,!!!!!!!!!!!!!

let's get back to some Duck hunting guys hahahahahahaha

The Aussie/US is looking interesting...am unable to post a chart though, take a look,

thanks, Steve

Hi Steve, just looking at the 3 ducks method, looks good.

The aud/usd going long looks like a good signal as per the method.

My view on an entry point would be 1.0457, with the stop at 1.0437, 2:1 target of 1.0497.
Does this fit with the method as CC describes it ? I'd be interested to hear from someone as yourself who is currently using it.
Rich

 

[stephensteve]

I had a look at it when I got in from work, I must confess to being eager to get into a trade and went for a BUY at the very first crossing of the 60 MA on the 5 min chart....!!!
I then realised that I had Broken a rule and I should have waited for U.K. London trading time.!!!

I had entered the trade at 5 am...way before I should have..it went against me and my stop was hit..hopefully I have learned not to be tooooo eager and to wait...

By the way i am in Melbourne, Australia, so i am in upside down time.

I am now going to wait until 7:15 uk time to try to line up the ducks

cheers, Steve

 

[stephensteve]

After a look at the chart at 3:20 am UK time...aus/us is at 1.0481
you have opened at 1.0457.....so up 24 ish pips

I think you are along the right 3 duck lines..well done, maybe another trader can advise too.

Hope your stop was wide enough to allow the trade to go...when to get out..??????

Wouldn't it be a shame if your target of 40 pips wasn't reached and the trade went back down and you lost out. This is what happened to me a little while ago, it was a couple of pips short of my target and went into reverse.
boo hoo

I am still puzzling when to put a close or stop/loss but will scan the 1 hour chart to look for a slow down and possible 25% retracement stop..even look for support/resistance lines too. Maybe set the s/l as the 60 ma on the 1 hour chart....so long as it is going the way I want it to..decisions,decisions

cheers, Steve

 

[stephensteve]

Hi again, have looked for some early ducks, some are lining up but the MAs are looking flat, the US/CHF looks good though and so I have gone short at 0.92720 with a s/l of 33.

4 hours to bed time so feel free to comment, advise etc.

Cheers, steve

 

[rsh01]

Hi again, have looked for some early ducks, some are lining up but the MAs are looking flat, the US/CHF looks good though and so I have gone short at 0.92720 with a s/l of 33.

4 hours to bed time so feel free to comment, advise etc.

Cheers, steve

Hi StephenSteve

I dont trade this system, but i have read the thread and am familiar with PA trading, so I will add some comments. A concern is you are approaching some key levels which may provide support.

However I would add that you're probably better off looking back at Nigel-Ps charts and seeing how he would trade/where he sticks his entry approaching key levels.

First of all, what is your target profit (TP)? Have you demo'd this method and confident that you can aim for 1:2 RR? These are things you should have an idea of when trying out new system. Your RR for this method maybe different to someone else trading same method as you prefer to jump in & out quickly - a few times a day, whereas someone else maybe looking for jumping on the trend and holding for days, locking in profits on the way.

Second, why have you put your SL at -33? Looking at its not too bad a place, above the recent range bound asia highs, others may disagree.

USD/CHF
There are possible support levels just below your entry
~ @ 9215-9255 on daily (inc the new recent low on M15; I treat this as big support/supply zone, and personally would not look to short until it breaks this zone and holds below, but i trade completely differently).

So I would expect some support (supply) at these levels, and price has found support at H4 9250 area and bounced off it slightly. If it breaks the 9250 and holds, then will it break the prev low of 9220? If your TP is here, then fine. So the question is do you want to be entering just before support levels? You are hoping it breaks through, so maybe you want to be placing a stop entry just below the level - to catch a breakout as its happening, but with a tight stop in case its a fake breakout. Others may wait for price to break through, and then stick limit sell in @ 9250 waiting for a retest of the prev support which is now a resistance level.

Other things to think of if you are near support/resistance levels are the number of times (and how recent) price has come back to this level - which may help you gauge how strong the level is. Has priced bounced off it aggressively - how long ago?; has price recently repeatedly tried to break through it, and is consolidating just above soaking up supply side? Is price now forming an inverted head & shoulders pattern on the H1 indicating a reversal in the trend etc etc? (There was a prev inverted H&S on the daily).


As simple as this method is to trade there is still plenty to learn about price action / TA for your entry/exits. You have to find out what you are comfortable with, again theres plenty of tips in Nigel Ps posts (i think he recently mentioned he only trades 1 type of set up), and loadsa other places on the web (for free).

G/L.

 

[rsh01]

SS
oh, and the majors against the USD look good for 3 ducks longs esp in EU, GU, NU. AU is perhaps just turning long again after a recent pull back on the higher t/f but the others look more optimal imo.

Did you miss these?

 

[stephensteve]

thanks for an informative posting, I shall read and re - read a few times to learn a bit,

where are Nigel's charts?

Target profit is as much as poss..!!

33 is a random number that fits somewhere as advised by Capt C and around how much I feel comfy to lose..!! also 33 and 3 ducks seems to go well together,

To answer "did I miss the other majors"...no, I have indulged too many trades in the past so I went for one that looked the juiciest, the 4 hour MA and the 1 hour were pointing down on US/CHF , the others looked flat so I have left them alone as they didn't seem to be trending , just horizontal.

Thanks for your info, cheers Steve

 

[rsh01]

thanks for an informative posting, I shall read and re - read a few times to learn a bit,

Target profit is as much as poss..!!

33 is a random number that fits somewhere around how much I feel comfy to lose..!!

To answer "did I miss the other majors...no, I have indulged too many trades in the past so I went for one that looked the juiciest, the 4 hour MA and the 1 hour were pointing down on US/CHF , th others looked flat so I have left them alone,

Thanks for your info, cheers Steve

nws. The 33 SL is just above the US/Asian highs, which is logical placement.

EU H4 attached - blue dash line is the 60sma - thats fairly upward pointing! Though its a triple top, an entry above this level perhaps? For you to make those decisions.
-------------------------------------------------
Just to provide some hints for entry/exit:

~ Support/resistance/ppz levels - breakouts (& retests); bounces (support becomes resistance); placing stops (entry/exits) near/beyond/in front levels...as mentioned above; trend lines (dont use myself).
~ Price patterns - head & shoulder necklines/shoulders/base of head; double (triple) tops/bottoms (V shapes); diamonds; wedges; 1-2-3; spike base; bear/bull flags; etc etc
~ specific bars: pin bar close; doji break; BEOB/BUOB, inside bars etc etc
~ indicators
~ a combo of any of the above

nb: drawing/identifying s&r levels comes with practice, as does identifying most of the above. plenty of screen time.

(I pay most attention to the top 2 - . everyone differs though, you can use as few or as many as you want but its advised to keep things as simple as poss. you may want to think about what are significant to other market participants when placing entry/exits - is my entry/exit price area significant to the market? do they care about a pin bar close level? is price more likely to go straight through this area, or stall, or bounce? blah blah)

All of the above are assumed (by most) to have more significance at higher t/f's.

And then finally what Nigel P stresses, good money management skills are key.

Hope i haven't confused things too much. Theres other stuff to add but will leave it there.

happy trading.

 

[stephensteve]

Thanks for more info, my screen was only showing the last 10 c/st on Euro/US and it was all a bit squashed and telling me it was flat, I have a temp set up as am travelling in OZ, I need to get a proper set up asap..!!!

Shall look at the info above, cheers SS

 

[rsh01]

where are Nigel's charts?

sorry missed this question - just in his prev posts on this thread, skip back through them.

Target profit is as much as poss..!!

you will have to be slightly more scientific than this to apply risk management. you should back test when you have a more defined strategy (back test to get to this point), and then from this gauge strike rate, your expected risk v return etc etc....plenty of threads on risk management also. some ppl use sharpe ratio also.

other questions - do you trade >1 lot and aim for target profit 1 - taking some off, then take more off @ TP2 etc.

what i would suggest is create a trading journal - on excel, save your charts with entry/exit marked, commentary on what happened, max drawdown, cld you have made more?

loadsa decisions for you to make!

g/l.

 

[stephensteve]

Hi Steve, just looking at the 3 ducks method, looks good.

The aud/usd going long looks like a good signal as per the method.

My view on an entry point would be 1.0457, with the stop at 1.0437, 2:1 target of 1.0497.
Does this fit with the method as CC describes it ? I'd be interested to hear from someone as yourself who is currently using it.
Rich

Your trade is looking good, fingers crossed it carries on, I am going to bed to dream of ducks and candlesticks..!!

Question for all, would it be wise to close out now for 27 pips or wait and wait for the target??????

 

[stephensteve]

Hi again, I have been pondering on the entry for the 5 min chart,

I now feel that I should have drawn a line from the previous low of 0.92562, which meant that I should not have traded merely on the crossing of the 60 M,A,...!!

I apologise for not using a thumbnail but could someone have a look at the US/CHF 5 MIN CHART around the 6:45 am this morn,

thanks guys, SS

 

[rsh01]

Your trade is looking good, fingers crossed it carries on, I am going to bed to dream of ducks and candlesticks..!!

Question for all, would it be wise to close out now for 27 pips or wait and wait for the target??????

without knowing why the SL was placed there, i couldnt comment on how to manage that trade.

this is where you need to define your own rules for managing a trade, do you move SL to BE and just let it run; manage the trade using a lower t/f; wait for H1 t/f to show its bearish hand or what; look for trend reversal patterns on M15/M5? cld be any number of reasons why you wld think about taking it off, these need to be tested over time.

with respect to the AU long in general, not sure when he took it, but the last cpl of days the H4 sma has been flat - with a slight upturn overnight, indicating no real strength in the trend at that time. There were better 3 duck longs imo, specifically where the trend was stronger. You have plenty of ccy pairs (& commodity/indices also) for you to filter out the best set ups, again time & practice will only help you find out what those are, all relative to your style of trading.

 

[rsh01]

Hi again, I have been pondering on the entry for the 5 min chart,

I now feel that I should have drawn a line from the previous low of 0.92562, which meant that I should not have traded merely on the crossing of the 60 M,A,...!!

I apologise for not using a thumbnail but could someone have a look at the US/CHF 5 MIN CHART around the 6:45 am this morn,

thanks guys, SS

not sure if your talking about AUS time.

this is the M5 (GMT)....

Price was below the 60sma (blue dash) for parts this morning - so it was valid at some stage near your entry price. I think the big issue with your trade was that you were selling into a big daily support/supply level as mentioned previously.

 

[triplepack]

Your trade is looking good, fingers crossed it carries on, I am going to bed to dream of ducks and candlesticks..!!

Question for all, would it be wise to close out now for 27 pips or wait and wait for the target??????

Hi Steve, it just missed the target, as of now but its is still in play, lets see how it goes.

Rich

 

[Nigel-P]

what i would suggest is create a trading journal - on excel, save your charts with entry/exit marked, commentary on what happened, max drawdown, cld you have made more?

Hi lads, great discussion here this morning, a lot of very good points made! rsh01's quote above is the best advice in my opinion. I've said it in this thread before but I would hazard a guess that not very many people do it. You really should keep a proper record of everything you do in the markets; there really is no excuse for not doing so.

I say this assuming that you take, or intend to take, trading seriously - if you are just playing around on the markets to pass the time that's a different story.

If you go on a diet what do you do? - you weigh yourself at the beginning and then at intervals afterwards - unless you measure it how do you know it is working?

You do exams at school/university, you undergo medical tests if you are being treated for an illness, athletes time themselves during training - progress and success always needs to be properly measured, and trading is no different.

In the past I had a big diary where I wrote everything in by hand, but now you don't even need to bother doing that. Your broker will often generate stats automatically at the end of each month, and there are also facilities online which you can link to your account that offer a mind boggling amount of statistical methods to measure your trading activity.

You should be able to rhyme off your average winner, average loser and success ratio without even looking it up. If you know your stats then you will sub-consciously know in your head whether you need to be trying to cut losers more quickly, run winners further, trade less, reduce/increase leverage, etc. You will make all sorts of improvements to your trading and you won't even realise you're doing it.

It really is that important in my opinion!

Good trading

Nigel

 

[stephensteve]

Hi Guys, more thanks from me, I have learned some things and feel that I will be a better DUCK HUNTER.

Still plenty to learn though, some things are obvious to the traders but to newbies it is a lot of info/discipline/break bad habits...etc

Found NIGEL's posts/charts on page 230 +++...thanks N.

I will look at the US/JAP as soon as 7 am UK time comes round.

please feel free to post your thoughts on 3 duck set ups,

cheers, Steve