Tennis Lays

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Getafix

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Hi All, I had mixed results with my Tennis bets last year so thought I'd record here see how I get on. These are all lays (equivalent to backing opposition) - I have started to prefer lays as I will tend to oppose quite a lot of low odds favourites. I am laying to a fixed liability of 1pt i.e., if the odds are 1.5 I will lay to a liability of 1pt which means if the selection does not win the tennis match I will make a profit of 2 pts.

Domain SchedOff LaySelection AvgOdds TourName Opponent
ATP 15-Feb-11 Brian Dabul 1.79 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Michal Przysiezny
ATP 15-Feb-11 Yen-Hsun Lu 3.49 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Lleyton Hewitt
ATP 14-Feb-11 Sergiy Stakhovsky 1.35 Open 13 - Marseille Illya Marchenko
ATP 15-Feb-11 Michael Llodra 1.46 Open 13 - Marseille Julien Benneteau
ATP 15-Feb-11 John Isner 2.3 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Juan Martin Del Potro
ATP 15-Feb-11 Teimuraz Gabashvili 4.1 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Mardy Fish
WTA 14-Feb-11 Barbora Zahlavova Strycova 1.4 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Michaella Krajicek
ATP 14-Feb-11 Federico Del Bonis 3.4 Copa Claro - Buenos Aires Leonardo Mayer
WTA 15-Feb-11 Angelique Kerber 3.15 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Andrea Petkovic
WTA 14-Feb-11 Anabel Medina Garrigues 1.45 Copa Colsanitas - Bogota Catalina Castano
WTA 15-Feb-11 Ekaterina Makarova 1.5 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Tsvetana Pironkova
WTA 15-Feb-11 Jelena Dokic 4.41 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Flavia Pennetta
ATP 15-Feb-11 Victor Hanescu 1.67 Copa Claro - Buenos Aires Daniel Gimeno-Traver
WTA 15-Feb-11 Anna Chakvetadze 2.47 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Daniela Hantuchova
 
Hmm formatting gone all wrong...Anyone know how to import a table (say from Excel)?
 
out of interest, given Tennis is a binary outcome, why don't you back the winner rather than lay the loser? Net of Betfair commission, wouldn't you get better odds? Just taking your first as an example, you can back Przysiezny at 6/5 (2.2) : better than laying Dabul at 1.79 and paying Betfair comm?
 
yes you are right, sometimes the price is better to back the opposition which I will do if beneficial to do so, but I'll record as an equivalent lay price here. Unfortunately for me, I was matched on that bet around 3pm yesterday and since Dabul's odds have dropped. You can actually get Przysiezny at a tasty 2.32 currently on betfair which equates to 2.2936 at 2% commission! Swings and roundabouts though, as I'm sure I got better prices on some of the others than is currently available. I do all my stuff through betfair because it saves me so much time, especially Tennis where I will expect to have around a 1000 bets a year. The tennis is "work in progress" to my established main sports (Horses and Greyhounds) so I am sure you can understand the time issue with having to scout the bookies - having said that, Pinnacle are quite competitive (and don't ban you) but don't cover as many of the smaller tournaments but I would still struggle for time comparing. I have learn't quite a lot since last year (Tennis wise) and hoping to make a decent profit (instead of a small profit) from last year. If I can make this pay better then I will take more seriously. But good points :)
 
I must also add that the 2.32 has little liquidity! So here you would likely get 2.34-2.36 as I'd ask for a price - Best to trickle in the bets with a bot imo to prevent pushing market in "wrong" direction (but getting into a whole different topic now)!
 
It's just dawned on me that my original post may have confused... The column titled "AvgOdds", this is the average odds that I was matched at (and NOT the avg available with bookies/betfair). Sorry for not specifying.
 
ATP 15/02/2011 10:00 Robin Haase 1.82 Open 13 - Marseille Andreas Seppi
WTA 15/02/2011 06:30 Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez 2.97 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Shahar Peer
 
ATP 15/02/2011 10:00 Nikolay Davydenko 1.87 Open 13 - Marseille Gilles Simon
WTA 15/02/2011 06:30 Kristina Barrois 2.13 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Jie Zheng
WTA 14/02/2011 17:30 Alexandra Panova 1.78 Copa Colsanitas - Bogota Yvonne Meusburger
 
Alexandra Panova match has not started yet. Often with tennis, the matches don't start til much later than the expected time due to limited courts and long matches.
 
Domain SchedOff LaySelection AvgOdds TourName Opponent
WTA 14/02/2011 22:30 Anna Tatishvili 2.95 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Ksenia Pervak
 
So your plan is to just stick the bet on before the match and leave it for the whole duration of the match? Do you know a lot about tennis?
 
Domain SchedOff LaySelection AvgOdds TourName Opponent
WTA 15/02/2011 09:15 Klara Zakopalova 2.33 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Lucie Safarova
WTA 15/02/2011 16:15 Akgul Amanmuradova 2.48 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Sania Mirza
WTA 15/02/2011 08:00 Elena Vesnina 1.98 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai Roberta Vinci

Only just checked and Vesnina match already started wo won't include in my results - must have been matched overnight?
 
Hi Masquerade, I consider myself knowledgeable with Tennis yes. Not as knowledgable as with Horses and Dogs. Last year I approached it from a pure form and watching games perspective. Once I had realised the areas(variables) the market seemed to be over/under evaluating in a match (current/past and upcoming) I decided to try and make the selections a bit more automated. So now, my programs look at the odds on offer, decide if currently offering value (it alerts me to match) and then I cast an eye over to decide whether I will place a bet or not. I place £100 liab on all these selections (I am using a bank of £10000) for this test, so I am effectively risking 1% of my bank per bet. Once I have been fully matched I then post here. Note, some bets will get partially matched so I won't post these here or record them in results. If this modelling/human hybrid works this year then I'll be looking to start again next year with a much larger bank - trouble here would be being matched as some of these smaller tournament matches don't attract much money. Though there are possibilities of trying to get matched in-play.

I wouldn't advise anyone to follow my bets to begin with as this is still in "live test mode" as I like to call it. I don't do papertrading as I find it is often too far from reality in terms of being matched - though I do perform significant back testing (with the aim of non - backfitting i.e., splitting up data into segments for different purposes). I would vehemently recommend AGAINST following any selections (tipster or not) esp without any knowledge of their past performances etc. There are far too many charlatans around.

My reasons for posting are really to show this can be done and that sports betting can form a good investment if approached in the correct way. I just hope now I've said that it doesn't fall flat on its face. I will try and post profit and losses frequently.
 
Annoyingly (for records) Vesnina didn't win that match and odds had also dropped as far as 1.1 in play. But I won't include this profit!
 
Domain SchedOff LaySelection AvgOdds TourName Opponent
ATP 15/02/2011 16:00 Janko Tipsarevic 1.41 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships - Memphis Ryan Sweeting
 
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