Technical Analysis Events & Training Courses

[TWI]

Technical Analyst

Thought some people might be interested. Check out their magazine here:

http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/TTA AUG2006_2834.pdf

 

[dcraig1]

Thought some people might be interested. Check out their magazine here:

http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/TTA AUG2006_2834.pdf

I just skimmed thru the Pretcher interview. Here's a juicy quote:

We are in a global bear market in stocks, property, commodities and most bonds. It is the biggest bear market in 300 years

What planet is he living on ? Of couse it could all fall apart tomorrow morning, but by any reasonable definition, prices have to be heading south for there to be a bear market. Does the attached chart of the DAX look like a bear market ? Just reaffirms my view of Elliot wave.

 

[chump]

"heading south for there to be a bear market".....no they don't. Prices can move sideways in conjunction with a loss in purchasing power of the currency they are held in. Indeed they could even go up ,but if they go up at a slower rate than the value of the currency goes down then the net result would still be a loss of value.
Let me say I have little time for Pratner 😉 ,but if you look at the general index levels 5/6 years ago and look where they are today and assume (as he must do) that the assets were held through the interim then in fact investors are actually now poorer in SOME asset groups in the US inparticular.
Interestingly I wonder what the loss as been in say the US$ since 1995 compared with the move in property prices over the same period (and let's not be pedantic let's leave inflation out of it on the basis it's probably adjusted for anyway by the currency value)
Hope you take my points as this is a big issue really that underpins Pensions amongst other things. It's all about timeframes and longrun values.

 

[dcraig1]

"heading south for there to be a bear market".....no they don't. Prices can move sideways in conjunction with a loss in purchasing power of the currency they are held in. Indeed they could even go up ,but if they go up at a slower rate than the value of the currency goes down then the net result would still be a loss of value.
Let me say I have little time for Pratner 😉 ,but if you look at the general index levels 5/6 years ago and look where they are today and assume (as he must do) that the assets were held through the interim then in fact investors are actually now poorer in SOME asset groups in the US inparticular.
Interestingly I wonder what the loss as been in say the US$ since 1995 compared with the move in property prices over the same period (and let's not be pedantic let's leave inflation out of it on the basis it's probably adjusted for anyway by the currency value)
Hope you take my points as this is a big issue really that underpins Pensions amongst other things. It's all about timeframes and longrun values.

chump

I do understand what you are saying, but it really is stretching it to say there is a global bear market in equities, real estate, commodities. Here in Australia, the All Ords has not been termed the All Orbitals for no reason, real estate prices are massively up over five years and there is a huge commodity driven boom, especially in Qld and WA. I'm not saying it's going to go on forever, or even that it is necessarily healthy but it certainly is a fact, and bear market it ain't.

 

[andycan]

spot on chump

 

[chump]

I think you have got to give the guy a little leeway on what he actually means by "global". he probably lives in Texas and Miami is another planet 😉 . I am not defending him by the way , I simply don't think he means "global" to encompass every third world economy , which part of Africa is Australia in again ? Just kidding , I love the place even when you're teaching us how to play cricket !

No , I was just focussing on your comment about prices going South as being the only description for a bear market , because this is a fairly popular misconception. Taking that a step further much of what we 'think' is going on with wealth and our share of it is nothing more than a 'shell game' .
Take your house for instance. It's gone up shall we say 100% , so what. Just how does that benefit you ? There are a relatively small number of options under which it benefits you at all. For the most part it is meaningless. Can you buy a beer with it ? Pay for your holiday with it next year ? Only if you realise the value before it decreases in either nominal or real terms can it actually benefit you.
Realisation of that value is typically done either on relocation to a different market in this world , or the other if you believe in the hereafter. Meanwhile I can guarantee you that if your newfound wealth was part of a general let's feelgood distribution from the central bank with cheap lolly then much of your day to day expenditure will have risen accordingly also. It's a now you see it now you don't 'shell game'. We should not confuse nominal wealth with the very real addition of of extra value.
Oz by the way has been a major recipent at THIS TIME of very cheap global money which made your holiday shop for commodities worth more to the rest of the world right now...it will pass and the pea will be under a different shell next time you look so bag yours while you have the chance.

Apologies to TWI as this does not have very much to do with TA training. I won't clutter the thread any further with my drivel.

 

[TWI]

Chump, by all means continue. Thread is mis-named as I originally posted some c*ap about their training courses and then later pulled it as I have not ever been on one and never will but it was part of the email with the link.

 

[chump]

Just took a couple of minutes to read that article. Given the kind of timeframe he is talking about he actually could go on to be correct , or he could be completely wrong. By the time the result is in we're all going to be either dead , or a lot older and past caring. Anyway at least he's getting paid to have an opinion ..all cheques welcome except the one's made of rubber.

 

[andycan]

i have heard of his spectacular opinions of the 70's and 80's

 

[chump]

I've been tactfully nudged that what I was discussing above is in fact a great deal to do with TA training. I acknowledge the wisdom of that comment ,but in my rather vague way I was referring to my discussion having little to do with the form of TA that you would be receiving via training in Elliot Wave analysis which at that time is what I thought the thread was about. Thanks for the comment anyway as I clearly was not being clear .

As an addendum actually I'd like to leave you with this quote from our venerable Mr Buffett :
"If you are very early in a chain letter, you can make money, but there's no money created"

Likewise just because someone prints more money it does not mean you are now worth more in terms of your wealth...anyway have a think about it.