Taishara's GY / GU Trading Journal

[timsk]

I think what I am struggling with is "do I exit on my opposite trade setting up?" This is what I was taught to do and what my rules say. So I can exit on an 1 minute divergence context going the other way.

Hi Tai,
The implied logic of this is that you operate a stop and reverse policy and, therefore, you're in the market all the time. I suspect that's not the case, so either you're not executing the exit strategy as dictated by your trade plan or it doesn't work as you'd hoped it would! Assuming you don't want to be in the market 24/7, this probably needs some looking at.

My personal view about exits is that they tend to be a compromise. We look through our trades and, with the benefit of hindsight, pick the optimum point to have closed them out. We then devise an exit strategy based on our findings to use in the future which will enable us to maximise any gains made. However, it must reflect our views and feelings about the market. Marrying the optimal exit point with a strategy that takes you out there that you're comfortable executing is the really tricky bit. The strategy you use to get out of the trade is, IMO, even more important that the one used to get into it. This is because exits are so much harder than entries and, whatever strategy or technique one uses, it will (probably) have an impact on the entry and, almost certainly, the stop loss strategy employed for the trades that go against us. In theory, I'm in favour of reverse engineering a trade so that one starts with the exit, then decides on the stop loss and, lastly, works out the entry. But this is counter-intuitive and I confess that I struggle with the issue of exits as much as the next person!
Tim.

 

[Taishara]

Tim,

Thank you!!

I think you are right that I need to hone my exit rules.

One thing I am finding as well is that depending on market behavior, my exit rules may change. For example, if price is trending hard, I might not get out at a divergence. But if the market is sideways like this week, a divergence is triggering an exit point.

I agree that exiting is much harder than entering. Which is daunting because it took me a long time to get my entry strategy really honed. On the other hand... I am not still learning basics like "what is a pip, anyway?".

I really think that "comfortable executing" clause is very important. I suspect that factor will change over time as well.

I will be making revisions and updates!

I am so happy that I have invested the time in this forum. No idea if it would be different in other forums, but I have gotten nothing but positive results from this experience! Not that many things in life you can say that about!

Tai

 

[Taishara]

Tim,

I have been doing some analysis on those statistics that were mentioned in the Trading Journals page.

It seems that I have (or can fairly easily get) all the information I might need to have for trades starting November 1, 2009. I would need to add a few additional columns of data to my existing trading log to have it all in one spot. All good information, I think.

Some statistics I would add would be "performance". I would need to categorize my entries and my exits to be able to capture "good, technical error (clicking one click trading accidentally, setting stop loss in trading station wrong, etc) (and yeah, I've done both of those), context mis-execution (as in say misreading trend direction),... maybe something else.

The issue I have with this is I have the data... I just have to think through the mental gyrations of how to get it in the format that I can use! Just an Excel exercise. I know it is in this brain of mine.... somewhere... I just have to find it!

Stay posted!

This actually comes at an awesome time, as I am polishing up my trading log template for 2010. So I can get it all added now and tested before the big switch over day.

Tai

 

[Taishara]

I came to teh charts early today and saw a definite downward trend happening.

I saw a trade set up at 00:01 using my 1 Minute ZLR context and entered a sell on the GU. I got in at 1.6243/1.6248. My stop was at 1.6263/1.6268.
Price wandered quite a while, but never seriously threatened my stop loss. By 00:30, the upward retrace petered out and price moved downward.

I saw a very minor episode of divergence from 1:11 to 1:13. The divergence was so small it was not strong enough on its own to close the trade considering the strength of the downward movement.

I saw price try to break the daily low of 1.6231 at 01:16 and failing with CCI lower than -200. It tried again at 01:17. Both times buyers pushed price back away from that barrier, so I closed the trade at the close of the 01:17 candle for a +10 profit.

When I traded the GY, it seemed I rarely was trading around daily highs and lows as support and resistance barriers, so I did not have a formal exit rule for that condition. However, on the GU this seems more likely, especially if I get to the charts early as I did tonight. I will add such a rule.

During the time it takes me to write this, price has moved up enough that it would be threatening the stop loss I had set. Hmmm... in this last minute, it hit where my stop loss was. Thank goodness I remembered to cancel it!!!

 

[Taishara]

One more point about this particular daily low... for 12/17, the low was 1.6231. For 12/16 evening, the low was 1.6230. For the entire day of 12/16, the low was 1.6229 at 3:30. The next time it was lower than that was not since 12/15 at 12:30... So this was a strong barrier.

 

[Taishara]

Some initial statistics for trades taken in November & December 2009

Total trades - 19
Win - 11
Loss - 8

While I know this does not change the number, it should be noted that two of the losses were technical mistakes. One of the wins was entered due to an technical error. The first loss I set the stop loss wrong in the TS and the second loss I accidentally clicked on the one tiny spot on my screen that had one click trading. The first win that was technical error I did not cancel the stop loss for the previously winning trade and so the stop executed and I came to the chart with the trade active. (BIGGEST MISTAKE I HAVE EVER MADE) So these cannot be counted when calculating my metrics for my context analysis. Just against my total earnings. All statistics in this post include these three trades.

Total pips
Win - 337
Loss - 173

Average win - 30.6 pips
Average loss - 21.6 pips

Average by month:
November (2 win / 3 Loss)
Avg Win - 60.6
Avg loss - 25

December (9 Win / 5 Loss)
Avg Win - 24
Avg Loss - 24.5

BUY trades
Win - 6
Loss - 4

SELL trades
Win - 5
Loss - 4

Largest winning trade: buy 11/3 - 53 pips (discounts technical error win)
Largest losing trade: -25 - maximum stop loss.

Largest winning day:
November 3 - 53 pips (discounting a win that was a technical error)
Largest losing day:
November 5 - 50 pips

Largest winning week:
December 6-11 (win 126 pips)
Largest losing week:
November 3-5 (lose 75 pips)

Largest winning month:
December = 216 pips
Largest losing month:
December = 98

All trades taken between 00:00 and 04:00 ET

Sequence of trades -
longest sequence of win - 4 (12/15, 12/16, 12/16/ 12/17) (sell, buy, sell, sell)
longest sequence of loss - 3 (11/5, 11/5, 12/6) (Sell, Sell, Buy)

I am working on a way to automate these statistics including:
market direction
performance
holding time

I will also hopefully have some better way to present the data....

Tai

 

[Taishara]

oh... and I guess it goes without saying that this week is not yet over...... so those numbers might change.

 

[Taishara]

It is times like this that I started this trading journal... I made a huge mistake. Knowingly. *shakes head - slaps self on forehead*

What I did was get over confident. I looked at the up coming announcement and I just *knew* price was going to go up. After all that downward momentum today, etc etc etc... my list of reasons why I *knew* it was going to go up is rather long. And irrelevant because the mistake was believing I *KNEW* what was going to happen. And the worst part is part of me knew I was making the mistake, but I did it anyway...

I found a place to get in a buy on an extremely loose translation of my rules... (read I broke the rules) and got in a buy. Then 04:30 came around and it obviously dropped like a rock.

Blew past my SL and closed 15 pips lower than my stop.

*take a deep breath*

Own up to it. Forgive yourself and understand what happened.

The fact that my loss was almost twice what I planned doesn't actually bother me as much as the fact that part of me was saying "don't do it..." and I did it anyway. Obviously, the loss annoys me, but the lack of discipline and the ignoring of my ... um... conscious for lack of a better term really makes me frustrated at myself.

*take a deep breath*

Keep a Winning Attitude – A positive expectation of your efforts with an acceptance that whatever results you get are a perfect reflection of your level of development and what you need to learn to do better. Mark Douglas

My level of development is still not where it should be in terms of psychology. I believe I still need work in myself to focus on a tighter reign for discipline too. If I learn something from this, then it will be an overall win.

Shake it off, move on to the next trade. tomorrow.....

 

[Taishara]

wouldn't it be great if this was the last time I made this mistake???

 

[Black Swan]

Some initial statistics for trades taken in November & December 2009

Total trades - 19
Win - 11
Loss - 8

While I know this does not change the number, it should be noted that two of the losses were technical mistakes. One of the wins was entered due to an technical error. The first loss I set the stop loss wrong in the TS and the second loss I accidentally clicked on the one tiny spot on my screen that had one click trading. The first win that was technical error I did not cancel the stop loss for the previously winning trade and so the stop executed and I came to the chart with the trade active. (BIGGEST MISTAKE I HAVE EVER MADE) So these cannot be counted when calculating my metrics for my context analysis. Just against my total earnings. All statistics in this post include these three trades.

Total pips
Win - 337
Loss - 173

Average win - 30.6 pips
Average loss - 21.6 pips

Average by month:
November (2 win / 3 Loss)
Avg Win - 60.6
Avg loss - 25

December (9 Win / 5 Loss)
Avg Win - 24
Avg Loss - 24.5

BUY trades
Win - 6
Loss - 4

SELL trades
Win - 5
Loss - 4

Largest winning trade: buy 11/3 - 53 pips (discounts technical error win)
Largest losing trade: -25 - maximum stop loss.

Largest winning day:
November 3 - 53 pips (discounting a win that was a technical error)
Largest losing day:
November 5 - 50 pips

Largest winning week:
December 6-11 (win 126 pips)
Largest losing week:
November 3-5 (lose 75 pips)

Largest winning month:
December = 216 pips
Largest losing month:
December = 98

All trades taken between 00:00 and 04:00 ET

Sequence of trades -
longest sequence of win - 4 (12/15, 12/16, 12/16/ 12/17) (sell, buy, sell, sell)
longest sequence of loss - 3 (11/5, 11/5, 12/6) (Sell, Sell, Buy)

I am working on a way to automate these statistics including:
market direction
performance
holding time

I will also hopefully have some better way to present the data....

Tai

Good numbers, I likes the bits highlighted... You'll 'win', no doubts...

 

[Taishara]

Good numbers, I likes the bits highlighted... You'll 'win', no doubts...

Thank you for the encouragement! I was feeling so annoyed with myself so let me update the numbers with my last trade. (just the stats you noted) I marked the change in red.

Total Trades: 20
Win - 11
Loss - 9

Total pips
Win - 337
Loss - 212

Average win - 30.9
Average loss - 23.6

I still think if you look at the numbers, it is still an overall winning plan. And I am learning every single day more things to help me guide my way to minimizing those losses. And hopefully maximizing those gains!

Tai

 

[Black Swan]

Total pips
Win - 337
Loss - 173

Average win - 30.6 pips
Average loss - 21.6 pips

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Kinda similar numbers to me (in terms of averages). 50 trades (per week) - 30 win, 20 lose, (although 10 of the losers are negligible/scratch)

 

[Taishara]

One thing I am going to back off on is how tight my stops are... recently I decided to pull my GU stop in to 20 from 25. I have had my GY stop at 25 in from 30 a few months ago.

I did this for the obvious reason that I want to make more without risking more. The way I calculate lots factors in the stop loss and the % of risk.

I have decided that, as much as I would like to buy my husband from slavery of a full time job next week, that is not going to happen. So when I am able to do it, I want to be able to enjoy life with him rather than having a heart attack from stressing out over price that moves too near my stop. I find that my stops are not often threatened at 25 - GU / 30 - GY. (unless I am about to stop out, obviously)

So let go of the greed and build the confidence. Even if I am not making 50% / month!

Of course... this would increase the size of the average loss... I am hoping to make that trade off for decreasing the number of losses.

What is that you say? Hope is not a plan? Yeah... you are right. I must go back and study exactly how often this was a problem for me, both in trades I took and trades I observed but chickened out of taking.

 

[Taishara]

Kinda similar numbers to me (in terms of averages). 50 trades (per week) - 30 win, 20 lose, (although 10 of the losers are negligible/scratch)

Out of curiosity, how long are you at the charts if you take 50 trades / week?

Tai

 

[Black Swan]

Out of curiosity, how long are you at the charts if you take 50 trades / week?

Tai

I trade off 2hr TFs

 

[Taishara]

Ok... step one tonight... IDENTIFY bias. Didn't do that well yesterday.

I also went ahead and moved the stops to 25 GU / 30 GY. Though, my stop outs in the past 2 months have not been related to that. Or rather... a 5 pip move on GY is not enough to overcome this issue.

I seem to remember seeing other trades I was chicken to get into go within the 25-29 range and then go the right way.

So for now, I will move the stops until further study can be done. It is not risking any more or less because my constant is the amount of money I am willing to lose.

Forgive me if I am short tonight, I have a splitting headache and a mountain of house work before me to get ready for family to come and visit for 3 weeks. But... Trading First!

 

[Taishara]

Ok... I actually did not say the bias... *shakes head* *ouch!*

GY is sideways in a channel between 144.38 and 145.75. Must have had a japanese announcement because a major drop then increase in price to break the ranges between 1930 and 2100. But overall sideways with a slight downward cast.

GU is mostly sideways with an upward cast since the big announcement at 0430 yesterday. Since that announcement it has worked its way up from 1.6100 to 1.6200. Ever so slowly.

GU currently has RSI 3 extreme and RSI 14 moving down to exactly 50 right now. GY has both RSI 3 and 14 in the middle.

 

[Taishara]

So right now I am only looking for a sell.

 

[Taishara]

So right now I am only looking for a sell.

Maybe I should just go to bed... Reading post before it... "GU has upward movement" and then say I am only looking for a sell. *sigh*

Well... at least I did not TAKE the sell on the GY that wasn't quite perfect, but close. That is a plus!

 

[Taishara]

I should have gone to bed. I saw a sell set up on both GU and GY and I took both. I lost both. Right now I have a headache and I am pissed off... not sure if I am pissed off at myself, at the market, or just all of it. But whatever it is, I am pissed off. So I need to walk away from trading.

Maybe I will look in on the NY session later if I am awake and no longer pissed off.

I will create my pictures later.

I hope everyone has a great weekend! We have family coming for the holidays! Yay!