T-Bond Signal

[Anonymous]

Do you suggest to trade without a stop loss?

Depends on which method a trader is using, if executing arbitrage, it requires a different set of calculations. If using cut-loss-ride-profits method I wouldn't dare not putting a stop loss there in case there is a big plunge or surge in the opposite direction. If targeting a temporary divergence I would still put a stop there in case my computer breaks down and I can't re-establish the connection fast enough to take profit nor cut loss.

Specify, please.

From 116,21 to 115,17 is about 36-thirty-seconds, ie. the trader will be risking US$1125.

If a trader has only US$1125 in his trading account, assuming the broker allows the trader to initiate a position because the day trading margin is sufficient, he will most probably be calling the trader for margin based on the volatility of the T-Bond. The probability of the trader surviving beyond 3 rounds based on such an amount in his trading account, will be very low. If he gets wiped-out in the first round he will not see round 2.

Based on what I can recall of the entry signalers in the 1990's, I think they described it as "playing the technicals", eg. "support seen at", "if support broken next support is," etc. That is, they don't guarantee that something will happen (maybe they don't want to get sued for breach of warranty etc.).

 

[T-Bond]

T-Bond

Hi,
the T-Bond have been going through a side market.
In this phase I suggest to decrease the profit target and from tomorrow I will send signals again.
Unfortunatelly I cannot do it through the website because the company I work for do not allow it.
For people interested I will send them directly to their e-mail.
Please let me know your e-mail and I will keep on sending my signals and I will prove the validity of them as I did, and you can verify them, in the previous 2 months.

Regards,

T-Bond

 

[Anonymous]

May I know what company (or what type of company) you work for, if it isn't too confidential?

 

[T-Bond]

A Bank. I am a Prop Analyst

May I know what company (or what type of company) you work for, if it isn't too confidential?

 

[Anonymous]

What is a Prop Analyst?

 

[squaregains]

hey T-Bond interested to to know your analysis - please send to [email protected]

 

[T-Bond]

Proprietary Analyst

What is a Prop Analyst?

 

[Hook Shot]

Hairline Cracks appearing in the US Long Bond ?

The secular Bull Market in Long Bonds

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf

Train crash in slow motion ??

 

[grantx]

HS,

In less than 250 words, why do you think cracks are appearing?

Grant.

 

[Hook Shot]

Okay...........

Gut feel !!! (there 2 words)

Not sure if it's a serious question or you're trying to tell me I'm full of **it. If the former pm me ........ I'll be happy to tell you why I'm coming to that view. If the latter

hs
Edit - this contains some views on the subject - some of which I subscribe to
US Treasury Bond Market - The Mother of all Bubbles :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Free Website

 

[grantx]

HS,

Polite, young gentleman would neither think nor say such a thing.

That link is a good analysis, and I can’t find anything on which to disagree.

Here’s a few points from various sites.

“Thirty-year bond yields rose 11 basis points this week, the biggest increase in nine weeks, as the government sold $9 billion of 30-year bonds on Feb. 7. For both the 10- and 30-year sales, the yields were the lowest ever at auction.”

“traders see a 32 percent chance the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate by 75 basis points at its March 18 meeting, up from zero last week.”, ie lower yields at the short end

“Russia's sovereign wealth fund plans to buy Japanese securities, including shares and government bonds”.

If bonds and stocks are looking dodgy what do you do – sell everything presumably.

Two good articles on the coming week:

Market braces for another grueling week | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Reality check for Europe | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Grant.

 

[Hook Shot]

Cheers Grant ....

HS,

Polite, young gentleman would neither think nor say such a thing.

That link is a good analysis, and I can’t find anything on which to disagree.

Here’s a few points from various sites.

“Thirty-year bond yields rose 11 basis points this week, the biggest increase in nine weeks, as the government sold $9 billion of 30-year bonds on Feb. 7. For both the 10- and 30-year sales, the yields were the lowest ever at auction.”

“traders see a 32 percent chance the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate by 75 basis points at its March 18 meeting, up from zero last week.”, ie lower yields at the short end

“Russia's sovereign wealth fund plans to buy Japanese securities, including shares and government bonds”.

If bonds and stocks are looking dodgy what do you do – sell everything presumably.

Two good articles on the coming week:

Market braces for another grueling week | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Reality check for Europe | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Grant.

Glad you liked the link and thanks for yours..

Where the money goes when it flees stocks and long bonds is a bit of a conundrum (for me at least). Some say it goes into gold and precious metals ...I'm not so sure and anyway those bull markets are well known.

Pimco have been talking about going into bank bonds ... who knows .... just have to keep an eye on the charts to see what sector starts to rise :cheesy:

 

[ammo]

Glad you liked the link and thanks for yours..

Where the money goes when it flees stocks and long bonds is a bit of a conundrum (for me at least). Some say it goes into gold and precious metals ...I'm not so sure and anyway those bull markets are well known.

Pimco have been talking about going into bank bonds ... who knows .... just have to keep an eye on the charts to see what sector starts to rise :cheesy:

they came out w/ 290b in the 30 yr,i dont know how many 10 yr, but 30 there were only 174b bid, dealer took 90%of total sale,beginning signs of foriegners unwilling to buy us paper,thats an unofficial downgrade, kinda ties feds hands on more rate cuts,they r gonna have to let this mrkt correct itself

 

[Hook Shot]

'Av yer seen watts happened to the T-Bond ???

The secular Bull Market in Long Bonds

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf

Train crash in slow motion ??

Bonds testing the low of 2008 ................... but remember this is in slow motion so plenty of time to ride it down - perhaps...........

 

[Hook Shot]

Bill Gross said last Friday (Apr 4th) : Treasuries "the most overvalued asset bar none" - cnbc vid clip 4/4/08
I think he knows one or two things about bonds ...after all it's only mathematical at least pricing is..

T Bond futs have come back and now form a pennant at the highs during 2008.

What happens next ?

(1) bonds pop and get even more overvalued and so inevitable death
OR
(2) bonds start to wend their way lower as my analysis said they should....
OR
(3) bonds go sideways............

Bond bubble camp getting more vocal!

 

[grantx]

HS,

Does the flag indicate you've taken American citizenship?

Bonds' high prices are justified on the basis of high demand because of its as 'safe haven" status. Better here at low return than in the uncertainty (continuing credit crisis)of the stockmarket.

Grant.

 

[Hook Shot]

HS,

Does the flag indicate you've taken American citizenship?

Bonds' high prices are justified on the basis of high demand because of its as 'safe haven" status. Better here at low return than in the uncertainty (continuing credit crisis)of the stockmarket.

Grant.

No flag is an error

"justified"......... it's different this time right.... :cheesy:

 

[grantx]

HS,

Wasn't different today. And it won't be different next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday when US majors report.

Grant.

 

[fibonelli]

Bill Gross said last Friday (Apr 4th) : Treasuries "the most overvalued asset bar none" - cnbc vid clip 4/4/08
I think he knows one or two things about bonds ...after all it's only mathematical at least pricing is..

T Bond futs have come back and now form a pennant at the highs during 2008.

What happens next ?

(1) bonds pop and get even more overvalued and so inevitable death
OR
(2) bonds start to wend their way lower as my analysis said they should....
OR
(3) bonds go sideways............

Bond bubble camp getting more vocal!

I think you'll find many of their portfolios are stuffed with, ahem, exotic debt instruments valued at fantasy prices rather than safer treasury bills, *notes or TIPS.

In his most recent newsletter he wrote "..........Ultimately government programs which support private credit market assets may be required in order to prevent an asset deflation of significant proportions. Authorities must act quickly, with a shot of adrenalin straight to the heart of the problem: home prices........." ie asking for a government bailout.

PIMCO Bonds - IO March 2008

*maturity of 5 years or less

 

[Hook Shot]

Cheers Fibo

I think you'll find many of their portfolios are stuffed with, ahem, exotic debt instruments valued at fantasy prices rather than safer treasury bills, *notes or TIPS.

It's weird and all the press was saying allianz screwed up and pimco - the subsidiary- was the wise one...

June T bonds having an inside MONTH, we also have declining tops as you know.... getting more interesting!