t/a Market timing versus predicting roulette

[Splitlink]

We don't allow people to drive without a license , they have to pass the skills and knowledge tests in driving examination.

Why not offer a trading course , an examination and a certificate of competence.You would be doing members pockets a lot of service , you could have saved them millions and got paid for a service.😆

A lot of the driving licence holders I've seen around here would not get my money..

I wonder if Trump has a licence in politics?

 

[foroom lluzers]

A lot of the driving licence holders I've seen around here would not get my money..

I wonder if Trump has a licence in politics?

Why are these driving (trading )license holders failing ?Is it methods , execution or psychology?

 

[foroom lluzers]

Any one who can time markets on scalping on 1 minutes is a Wizard , like the triple screen timers MULTI TRILLIONAIRE ELDER

 

[Splitlink]

Why are these driving (trading )license holders failing ?Is it methods , execution or psychology?

I think that it is psychology, especially based on the " what one thinks that the market should do", rather than what it is doing. They work out a lot of statistics and, then, refuse to believe it when it comes time to open the trade. Cold feet and they wait too long. Stops are another point. They are very difficult to get right.

 

[foroom lluzers]

I think that it is psychology, especially based on the " what one thinks that the market should do", rather than what it is doing. They work out a lot of statistics and, then, refuse to believe it when it comes time to open the trade. Cold feet and they wait too long. Stops are another point. They are very difficult to get right.

Agreed it is psychology .I have a great insight into it and I have opened several psychology threads explaining it.

Even if a trader found a technical method to time the market , it is most likely his decision will be overridden by his mental states with at least a dozen reasons for missing the eventual trade entry.

This is why most GURUS can show you hindsight trades , but not foresight trades in advance.

 

[Splitlink]

In addition, I suspect that orders are triggered by the market so I prefer to trade manually. That has pitfalls.

I have tried live trading posts and they don't work. My belief is that one is, either, trading or posting and I cannot do both.

Anyway, enough of my comments.🙂

 

[tomorton]

I think this is as ever a side-issue with respect to profitable trading.

Consider a trader with a system, and they take 20 trades, of which 15 are profitable. All 20 are declared live. Hey he says I'm a fantastic trader and I have a fantastic system.

But win rate as a percentage of trades taken which are successful doesn't prove anything. So the trader got 15 out of 20 trades taken. But the markets gave 100 signals that qualified for a trade under his system, yet he didn't or couldn't take these, and let's be kind and say that was just down to lack of capital. But now his actual provable win rate is just 15%. Doesn't seem like such a hot-shot now does he?

So I say forget live calls, we need strategy in advance.

 

[foroom lluzers]

I think this is as ever a side-issue with respect to profitable trading.



So I say forget live calls, we need strategy in advance.

Live calls with risk and results speaks a lot .

15 trades of 1 tick profit , then 1 loss of 150 ticks wipes it clean.The dumb are timing the scalping market ,in turn getting scalped.

There is the strategy in advance ,in the link below .
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...h-probability-trading-system-75-hit-rate.html

The main problem is most traders can not follow systems /methods due to psyche.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Why timing the market doesn’t work

The trouble with short term traders with market timing is due to psyche. Traders can be irrational and prone to panic and overconfidence. So while we may well have a trading plan, it can be hard to stick to it. We’re inevitably affected by unexpected events and emotions – fears ,we lose sight of the bigger picture.

The upshot is that, even though we ought to buy low and sell high, we often end up doing the opposite. This is partly to do with the way our brains are programmed.

We tend to trade in our comfort zone and optimism around us, and testosterone can lead us to take more risks. But these conditions can be more common when markets have been trending for some time, leading amateurs to pile in at or near the top of the market, when prices are already high. Similarly, we will be affected by widespread gloom at the bottom of a cycle, when we’re more inclined to sell out, even if prices have already fallen.

So people are handicapped to get their timing wrong due to their brain wiring . This is especially awkward because successful market timing would require extreme precision, and getting it wrong leads to losses , which hindsight traders don't show .

This is why we breed hindsight results trading gurus.Technical analysis books mainly show hindsight success , none of them ever produced a foresight technical analysis book.Trends are only evident in hindsight.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Traders who want to delude themselves with price action and short term market timing ,I just let them live in delusions , and make them feel they was correct.Short term market timing failure negates price action set ups.

 

[barjon]

"............,I just let them live in delusions ..........

😆😆 That's the biggest laugh of the century, you've made a thousand posts telling us what fools we are, how t/a is a load of rubbish and how we can't make a bean.

I live in hope that you will mind your own words, but I wouldn't bet on it..

 

[foroom lluzers]

😆😆 That's the biggest laugh of the century, you've made a thousand posts telling us what fools we are, how t/a is a load of rubbish and how we can't make a bean.

I live in hope that you will mind your own words, but I wouldn't bet on it..

Let us have a rational view , if market timing was easy , almost all traders would make money.Get you 1 minute ,5 minute ,15 minute ,30 minute , 4 hour /hourly and daily moving averages aligned , and you will all make a lot of money.

If it was easy , it would not create psyche issues , you would also get many live foresight trades called in advance.

That is why you get more hindsight results traders , because it becomes all so clear after the event.It always looks easy in hindsight.

 

[foroom lluzers]

If you can't time the markets , there are ways to trade successfully ,it is called position trading.You need a lot of patience to trade "without market timing".

Good education on patience here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/36745-patience-what-2.html#post2911356


You can time the markets with wider stops and longer time frames using position trading.

 

[tomorton]

What's the difference between position trading and guesswork?

 

[foroom lluzers]

What's the difference between position trading and guesswork?

Position trading is trading market behavior or anticipated market behavior , it is based on fundamental view and likely crowd behavior. Guess work is just guessing without rationale.

As an example :Current eurgbp trade was a belief gbp/usd was over sold eur usd has major overhead resistance at 11200 (see long time frame charts).Cable is also oversold .

The trade was buy cable sell eur = sell eur gbp

The previous trade went 400 pips but I panicked and closed early here

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/117228-forex-hindsight-trading-2.html#post2904376

Is it blind guessing ?What have you learnt?

 

[tomorton]

Good work developing the rationale but the timing was days out.

In more general terms, surely such set-ups will be quite rare? Not as rare as solar eclipses, but still less usable and less readily identifiable than a simple uptrend / downtrend.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Good work developing the rationale but the timing was days out.

In more general terms, surely such set-ups will be quite rare? Not as rare as solar eclipses, but still less usable and less readily identifiable than a simple uptrend / downtrend.

I have always said market timing does not work .These swing /position trading opportunities happen once a month , they are usually good trades.

There were 3 in last 3 months on forex and 2 on indices.

 

[tomorton]

Well, there you go.