pedro01
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Sadly, my broker will not support such activities....
What's your largest/average intra-trade drawdown there ?
Sadly, my broker will not support such activities....
What's your largest/average intra-trade drawdown there ?
Sadly, my broker will not support such activities....
What's your largest/average intra-trade drawdown there ?
if you use very small fraction, there should be no problem with your broker...send him to me, I'll convince him.
the largest is ~45% the average is about ~30% but that really depends on the fraction. I used 1%.
GladiatorX
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I've made money from MA's - Your inability to do so isn't the MA's fault, its your own incompetance with MA's; You can just brand things as **** because you couldn't use it to make profits... Your inability to make profits with MA's have nothing to do with how useful they are, its more of a reflection of your own ability to make money with them - Nothing else. If your reply is that MA's don't move the markets and therefore they are irrelevant; that is once again your perception blocking your ability to consider other options; Your perception is a form of behaviour dictated from your experiences; Therefore whatever you believe to be true about the market you incorporate into your beliefs about the market. Now if you think MA's are irrelevant to market behaviour and therefore insignificant, that is a representation of your experiences and knowledge that shapes your beliefs. Beliefs are beliefs and everyone has them; everyone thinks their own beliefs are correct and thats why you spread them to others to encourage them to your way of thinking - Not considering that maybe other opportunities or perceptions of the current environment may exist;
An example; If you fear going to the gym from being fat - Your perception of the gym will be entirely different from a buff-ting man whos muscles are huge to the extent that the 'buff man' could not even understand the fat persons perspective; In other words your environment is a reflection of thoughts and experiences and are never 'right' unless based on factuality, which is very rare because even an event viewed from the eyes is a matter of perspective.
If you don't like MA's - I think your only conclusion can be 'I am incapable of using MA's to benefit me financially'; Not that MA's are ****, take some responsability...
MA's tell you
- The market average price over the last x bars
They don't serve to make you profits; You can either succesfully utilise them or not.
I'm not a big fan of indicators; i brand myself as someone whos perception of them causes me to not be able to percieve their potential and that is my own fault not theirs, my opinion of indicators does not brand them of their effectivness as fact but rather as a reflection of my experiences; I do not doubt that others could have found them significantly more effective than myself and my inability to use some of the indicators is a lacking on my part.
Saying that MA's could never make any money is a reflection of your own thoughts and experiences of the market and based entirely on your failure to utilise them... This is your opinion and thats fine... But overall it just suggests ignorance of your understanding of the opportunities in the market. Because it is a fact that i've made money overall from MA's - Therefore you are factually wrong... Now you can reply with alot of stuff about how great you may be; but my fact invalidates your opinion and you can remain aggressively against the possibilities of profiting from MA's or be flat in your views and accepting of alternative opportunities.
Now i don't use MA's anymore and that was because my desires and goals changed, whether other individuals can also produce consistant profits from MA's i am certain of; Not acknowledging so would be to assume that i'm special in my abilities. Whether MA's are profitable in the long run, whether they have any bias and predictive probabilities or whether the information they give a trader are relevant at all is just a matter of opinion based on everyones own experience of them. Ofcourse you could always call me an exception to the rule in an attempt to compensate and set your mind at ease over your inability to profit from them.
x I talk too much baby.
I can imagine your reply will be one to re-inforce your own beliefs as are most of your posts despite not having sufficient succesful experience to match these beliefs or one of inflicting a feeling of inferiority on me
Therefore i will say this as an insurance;
I'm a genuinely profitable trader and if you feel competitive towards me then i will gladly absolutely dick-slap you in a brokerage statement comparison.
You go around the forums giving advice, telling people what is needed to be succesful but it all seems fake, as if your just writing it to tell yourself what you need to do...
In your very first post you stated you were 'new to all this' and in another a 'rookie mistake' occured... This was June 2009 - Later in the year you are claiming to have gone through + 1 year period without having a losing trade... It doesn't add up and if your response is that originally you were 'pretending to be new' that only justifies my conclusions that your a liar and also adds to the suspicioin that this time your 'pretending to be a profitable trader'
Okay, so i'm genuinely interested in a respectable reply.
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virtuos0
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Thanks for the bizarre attempt at psycholoanalysis 'Freud Jnr'. I was going to respond to your trading points until you altered your post to add the 'insurance' section. Once you had done that it occurred to me that it's pretty futile to try and debate with a nutter.I've made money from MA's - Your inability to do so isn't the MA's fault, its your own incompetance with MA's; You can just brand things as **** because you couldn't use it to make profits... Your inability to make profits with MA's have nothing to do with how useful they are, its more of a reflection of your own ability to make money with them - Nothing else. If your reply is that MA's don't move the markets and therefore they are irrelevant; that is once again your perception blocking your ability to consider other options; Your perception is a form of behaviour dictated from your experiences; Therefore whatever you believe to be true about the market you incorporate into your beliefs about the market. Now if you think MA's are irrelevant to market behaviour and therefore insignificant, that is a representation of your experiences and knowledge that shapes your beliefs. Beliefs are beliefs and everyone has them; everyone thinks their own beliefs are correct and thats why you spread them to others to encourage them to your way of thinking - Not considering that maybe other opportunities or perceptions of the current environment may exist;
An example; If you fear going to the gym from being fat - Your perception of the gym will be entirely different from a buff-ting man whos muscles are huge to the extent that the 'buff man' could not even understand the fat persons perspective; In other words your environment is a reflection of thoughts and experiences and are never 'right' unless based on factuality, which is very rare because even an event viewed from the eyes is a matter of perspective.
If you don't like MA's - I think your only conclusion can be 'I am incapable of using MA's to benefit me financially'; Not that MA's are ****, take some responsability...
MA's tell you
- The market average price over the last x bars
They don't serve to make you profits; You can either succesfully utilise them or not.
I'm not a big fan of indicators; i brand myself as someone whos perception of them causes me to not be able to percieve their potential and that is my own fault not theirs, my opinion of indicators does not brand them of their effectivness as fact but rather as a reflection of my experiences; I do not doubt that others could have found them significantly more effective than myself and my inability to use some of the indicators is a lacking on my part.
Saying that MA's could never make any money is a reflection of your own thoughts and experiences of the market and based entirely on your failure to utilise them... This is your opinion and thats fine... But overall it just suggests ignorance of your understanding of the opportunities in the market. Because it is a fact that i've made money overall from MA's - Therefore you are factually wrong... Now you can reply with alot of stuff about how great you may be; but my fact invalidates your opinion and you can remain aggressively against the possibilities of profiting from MA's or be flat in your views and accepting of alternative opportunities.
Now i don't use MA's anymore and that was because my desires and goals changed, whether other individuals can also produce consistant profits from MA's i am certain of; Not acknowledging so would be to assume that i'm special in my abilities. Whether MA's are profitable in the long run, whether they have any bias and predictive probabilities or whether the information they give a trader are relevant at all is just a matter of opinion based on everyones own experience of them. Ofcourse you could always call me an exception to the rule in an attempt to compensate and set your mind at ease over your inability to profit from them.
x I talk too much baby.
I can imagine your reply will be one to re-inforce your own beliefs as are most of your posts despite not having sufficient succesful experience to match these beliefs or one of inflicting a feeling of inferiority on me
Therefore i will say this as an insurance;
I'm a genuinely profitable trader and if you feel competitive towards me then i will gladly absolutely dick-slap you in a brokerage statement comparison.
You go around the forums giving advice, telling people what is needed to be succesful but it all seems fake, as if your just writing it to tell yourself what you need to do...
In your very first post you stated you were 'new to all this' and in another a 'rookie mistake' occured... This was June 2009 - Later in the year you are claiming to have gone through + 1 year period without having a losing trade... It doesn't add up and if your response is that originally you were 'pretending to be new' that only justifies my conclusions that your a liar and also adds to the suspicioin that this time your 'pretending to be a profitable trader'
Okay, so i'm genuinely interested in a respectable reply.
Rossini
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If you have back tested over a 20 year period then it may take a similar amount of time of forward 'testing' to actually see if what you tested is any good. Saying that something failed because it didn't make any money in the short term (one twentieth of your back tested data in your example) is rubbish. Whether you can stand the drawdown's and if the return is large enough to justify applying it is a different matter.
Rossini
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So you have a way of knowing where the price will go next?
You are correct though MA's have nothing to do with what the price will do in the future, but knowing the past and what price did then can lead to a more accurate idea of what may happen in the future. MA's are simply a visual way to help you achieve this. Whether you prefer looking at the naked price is your choice but don't tell someone that something doesn't work because you can't make it work.
B
Black Swan
TBH I'm hardcore TA, it defies belief that folk can tell me "TA doesn't work" and as stated countless times I can see price action all over my charts/indicators when it happens...
My edge/set up works, it always works, TBH I cba arguing v the zealots that continue to dismiss TA, it's beyond fooking boring now..:whistling
GladiatorX
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Fair play; I'm probably right though... You have what i percieve personally as valid and good opinions of the market and what people should focus on; but i get the sense that you don't know from experience and rather, these are things you hold true from failed experiences in other areas of trading and are currently trying to apply to your trading, writing them on forums to re-inforce them in your head.
If i'm wrong thats totally cool; i'd be interested to genuinely know? Thats just the impression i got
Sorry for being a bit rude.People write things which can seem very correct and intelligent; but its all based on what they currently percieve as neccesary to succeed; therefore they plug it into there head and make sure they follow it; But their perception is based on information and other experiences; Not actual experience of that particular philosophy producing profits.... I know a certain member on this forum who could go on for hours about what traders need to focus on, what trading is about and what traders need to be, yet hasn't placed a trade yet.
x
GladiatorX
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Yes, afterall; Watching an EMA (Based on your observation of what happened when it did similar behaviours) and making decisions from it is the same as making decisions based on price... Where you are basing your decisions on observations/experiences of what occured the last time a certain condition was present... Price is always historical remember...
Unless you know before hand what the demand/supply will be; every method is going to have faults and not to be THE CAUSE.... Remember that if you get in After large demand has been shown on a Time and Sales... You are entering on what PREVIOUSLY happened based on your perception of what the PREVIOUS event does to price.
What causes markets to rise?
More demand than supply.
Therefore we should focus on what conditions create more demand than supply; This can never be fact, because there is no exact cause/effect relationship... If we see on the Time and sales that huge DEMAND is coming in and we enter based on that.... We are still making decisions on probabilities... Because PREVIOUS DEMAND does not mechanically cause further DEMAND; It is just more likely to.
virtuos0
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I have a way of knowing where price will go next about 0.0000001% of the time, yes. That's all you need to make all the money in the world. The other 99.999999% of the time I have absolutely no clue what is going on.
Whereas people that trade relying on MA's have no clue what is going on 100% of the time and hence, unsurprisingly, 100% of them can't trade.
The past has no relevance in trading whatsoever, UNLESS you are combining that with some knowledge of the future. If you only have the past to base your trades on then you aren't trading, you're guessing.
virtuos0
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You've already admitted that what you are doing is playing a probability game, and that's fine. That game might last long enough in your favour that you can retire on your millions. But the more trades you place the closer you are to running out of luck.
virtuos0
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You can approach forums two ways. You can believe that no one is telling the truth, or you can just trust everyone. Unfortunately you have chosen a third way and that seems to be to play Sherlock Holmes/Freud/Miss Marple/Columbo.Fair play; I'm probably right though... You have what i percieve personally as valid and good opinions of the market and what people should focus on; but i get the sense that you don't know from experience and rather, these are things you hold true from failed experiences in other areas of trading and are currently trying to apply to your trading, writing them on forums to re-inforce them in your head.
If i'm wrong thats totally cool; i'd be interested to genuinely know? Thats just the impression i got
People write things which can seem very correct and intelligent; but its all based on what they currently percieve as neccesary to succeed; therefore they plug it into there head and make sure they follow it; But their perception is based on information and other experiences; Not actual experience of that particular philosophy producing profits.... I know a certain member on this forum who could go on for hours about what traders need to focus on, what trading is about and what traders need to be, yet hasn't placed a trade yet.
Thinking about it, this is almost a trading analogy. I have absolutely no clue who is genuine and who isn't, and no way of finding out, so I choose not to play the game of guessing. You have the same information available and yet you choose to play.
Who has the winning approach?
what is there besides past? all information you have is past information.
the only thing you have in the now - is your action taking.
and the future? you know nothing about the future.
even if you think you can predict 0.0000001% - that's not knowing, "to be" is a prerequisite of knowledge. so you don't know the future. you believe/think you know/guess/make an educated guess or whatever.
playing probabilities is all you have.
and it has nothing to do with luck. saying that if you trade with positive expectancy (based on past performance on a robust method) it's luck, is like saying that if you are the casino at a roulette table you can lose...
just so we can all learn - what pieces of information do you know about the future and when - or in other words, what kind of system do you use? what are you criteria to enter the market (btw - criteria of any kind are in the past...)
B
Black Swan
GladiatorX
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Thanks for the compliments (Comparing me to Sherlock/ Freud) -
I asked you a few questions and you failed to answer.
You say you know 0.000001% of the time what will happen next in the market and don't play the probability game;
Thats impossible.
Even if i was best-friends with the person who made the decision to push the demand on GBP/USD and he told me that at exactly 8am, they are pilling in - Its still probabilities;
1. Supply may be larger
2. They may not
What your basically saying is that you can predict the future?
Which is a lie. So explain yo' self.
EMA's don't change price; No.
Supply and demand does.
What your suggesting is that when you place a trade; You know what every market participant in the world is going to do next... Or your saying that you know what the MAJOR VOLUME PLAYERS are going to do next in a scenario where they will create enough volume that it would out-max the rest of the worlds money 'supply' = The only two scenario's of certainty and not probabilities.
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