Swing Trading

[cara2]

For sectors, even the Free version of Trade Ideas is worth looking at:

Trade Ideas Top List Sortable Stock Rankings

Top List rankings and Charts for Biggest Gainers or Losers, Relative Volume, Long Term AI, FANG, S&P 500, Up or Down Gappers, Momentum Low Float, Post Market

www.trade-ideas.com

"Momentum Trading"" is where you get into what's doing well, right? Sure, fine, but for me it's a quick grab and go because they often hit a brick wall! You could use MARA,COIN, BTC, RIOT, HUT8. I am, but I'm using tight stop-losses.

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your response 1nvest, you remind me of a best friend, who would pull me up if they didn't like my dress code or something else about me. I really appreciate you raising your concerns, that was probably one of the most important things i need to work on, mastering one discipline.

The course i went on learned me about lots of indicators, like MACD, candlesticks, in the hope i would have a better understanding of trading but i think this confused things further. The reason for going down swing trading, rather than for instance day trading, was it would allow me to do this part time, without requiring too much effort like day trading requires. The reason i believe for failing at swing trading, is i possibly saw candlesticks like reversal indicators, but the full criteria was not met for that candlestick and i overly complicated things. My strategy was not consistent either. I am going to make a New Years resolution to master Momentum trading, learn everything about this and stop overcomplicating things and apply the knowledge sooner.

What you said in your last post was an eye opener, thanks for being so honest with me. You are more than amazing, you are a wonderful human being. Its difficult when you are new to trading and i apologise again i have made some mistakes, you have rightly raised these concerns and i thank you from the bottom of my heart. I believed learning as much as i could about trading would help, but thats not the case, its made things alot worse.

Can i kindly ask please for the Sector ETF strategy would you use the Aroon strategy please, and what would the Rate of Change need to be please to confirm an uptrend? Regarding Novo Nordisk after a 52 week high is reached, what level of reversal would you buy more of this stock and would you use the Aroon strategy for this please? If you kindly had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would mean the world to me and hopefully set me on the right path and from there i will kindly read up on things to practise my skills.

I have ordered a book on Momentum trading and will read everything i can about this, but most importantly i will practise these strategy's every week in a demo account. Thanks for your support you are a star 1nvest, not many people on a forum would be as amazing as you and i thank you again. Hope you had a fabulous Christmas and i hope your trading strategy helps you achieve massive success. I very much hope you have lots of health, wealth and happiness into 2024. Very best wishes to you and take care.

 

[1nvest]

Can i kindly ask please for the Sector ETF strategy would you use the Aroon strategy please, and what would the Rate of Change need to be please to confirm an uptrend? Regarding Novo Nordisk after a 52 week high is reached, what level of reversal would you buy more of this stock and would you use the Aroon strategy for this please? If you kindly had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would mean the world to me and hopefully set me on the right path and from there i will kindly read up on things to practise my skills.

Hi Robert, I've just sent a document to you which details one of the momentum strategies I use which is investing in the top performing sectors.
Im happy to go through with you for the first few trades so that you get an idea of how this works, the indicator we need and if we need to amend the risk profile for you. As time progresses, then we can add to the list of strategies such as the individual stocks strategy rather than sector which adds to the returns significantly.
You will in time realise that you dont need a screener. You also dont need any specific software, all charting packages will have the annualised rate of change. You just need a diverse list of assets that are correlated, but not so identical as you lose value over time. In fact the more assets available erodes the strategy significantly so we avoid that mistake.
all the best to you

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you ever so much for your response 1nvest, i really appreciate the advice and support you have given me. You have been outstanding.

I have naturally been out of the stock market for over 10 years after suffering large losses on buy and hold type stocks and have not had any confidence in the stock market. I can confirm that following your momentum and trend based strategies, i have made over 50% of my yearly salary in 2024. Momentum and trend based strategies are what has helped me get my confidence back in investing. You are the best person on this forum and i really appreciate your support.

I also really appreciate you helping me to stop trying to learn everything and finding a strategy that works for you. Momentum is a strategy i should have learned years ago, buy and hold is not a strategy i would go back to, knowing the wide variety of different factors that can affect a stock. Such as larger institutional investors selling a stock can also have a large impact.

I also am very confident with the strategies i dont feel i need to read any additional books or overcomplicate things as you have given me peace of mind and helped me with the areas i had difficulty with. I want everyone to know that 1nvest on this forum is a true star. Thank you again 1nvest, thank you does not say enough for all the support you have given me. I very much hope you have great health, wealth and happiness into 2025. Very best wishes to you and take care.

 

[1nvest]

Thank you ever so much for your response 1nvest, i really appreciate the advice and support you have given me. You have been outstanding.

I have naturally been out of the stock market for over 10 years after suffering large losses on buy and hold type stocks and have not had any confidence in the stock market. I can confirm that following your momentum and trend based strategies, i have made over 50% of my yearly salary in 2024. Momentum and trend based strategies are what has helped me get my confidence back in investing. You are the best person on this forum and i really appreciate your support.

you're too kind Robert. Ironically its been almost a year to the day. 50% of your salary in the first year! not bad. Just don't get too carried away, and as you move closer into retirement, you could still use momentum strategies just with a more conservative asset list.
I really appreciate you letting me know how you've done, and of course the kind words..all the best to you

 

[cara2]

Well done to both of you, good for Forum Spirit.

@1nvest, I'm sure many of us would appreciate more info about the strategy which was used. Would it be possible to see that document you kindly sent to Robert. I've read through the thread, and I'm sure I'm missing something.

So far for the Long Term I've been using OEICS. It was easy last year primarily because Jupiter India was doing so well, no longer the case.
I am using screeners, specifically the fund screener at AJ Bell which goes down to "1 week", good to show if something has changed.

 

[brettb]

Just found this thread and saw it mentioned 52 week lows. I discuss these in my trading diary thread. I've started a strategy based around them, although my custom backtester consistently shows that 50 day lows are actually more profitable (an extra 2-3% CAGR). I believe this is due buying higher quality stocks with the 50 day low strategy, since these are much less likely to actually reach a 52 week low.

If anyone can suggest any momentum screens that work then I could add them to my ETF data site. It only covers US ETFs, however I've added almost every sector I could think of. This week the S&P Materials ETF put in an interesting low, so I just bought a similar UK listed iShares one.

Originally I built the site because I used to belong to salty dog investor. This is a paid momentum strategy service but they use OEICS funds rather than stocks or ETFs. I tried replicating it with ETFs but haven't yet found a good rotation strategy that works (apart from the maybe dogs one). 52 week lows are pretty good but they don't happen that often for ETFs, especially good quality ones.

 

[1nvest]

If anyone can suggest any momentum screens that work then I could add them to my ETF data site. It only covers US ETFs, however I've added almost every sector I could think of. This week the S&P Materials ETF put in an interesting low, so I just bought a similar UK listed iShares one.

Originally I built the site because I used to belong to salty dog investor. This is a paid momentum strategy service but they use OEICS funds rather than stocks or ETFs. I tried replicating it with ETFs but haven't yet found a good rotation strategy that works (apart from the maybe dogs one). 52 week lows are pretty good but they don't happen that often for ETFs, especially good quality ones.

Hi Brett, with regard to Salty Dog I used them also. It was some time ago so perhaps their results have changed. without wanting to criticise what works for them, i did quickly look into my own methods based on momentum.
If you want ETF momentum strategies for your site you wont go far wrong with some of those covered in https://allocatesmartly.com/
they have mostly momentum strategies that are all done using US ETFs. That also is a paid service, well worth it, but you can find the details of mostly the same strategies however for free. https://portfoliodb.co/portfolio-screener/
backtests for each of the strategies are provided (i have no affiliation to either sites) and the biggest difference to their strategies and the results of salty dog come down to two main things:
1) the lookback period of how they measure momentum (mostly annualised, whereas salty dog used as low as 4weeks)
2) the number of funds/etfs used (salty dog used hundreds of potential candidates, and in my experience you get much lower returns the larger the universe of potential rotation candidates.)

 

[brettb]

Thanks - I found that portfoliodb.co site really interesting.

I haven't yet created a really good ETF strategy except for the usual 52 week/50 day lows I've been working on.

I had another really good go at creating a momentum strategy. I've made something that buys the best ETFs based on the previous 6 months performance then checks to see what the next 3 months are like. However the results weren't that consistent. It does seem to be a kind of leveraged S&P though, with some very strong performances if you buy the single country ETFs when the S&P is itself in an uptrend.

I found a tonne of other strategies on YouTube last night and I'll try and test some more. I suspect my future lies in machine learning techniques to spot interesting patterns. I did uncover some interesting stuff with Markov chains. Hidden Markov models are next on the list.

Incidentally I believe salty dog returns ~10% a year (but don't quote me on that). The subscribers just seem genuinely pleased that they're beating the FTSE.