Swing trading technical analysis

Market recap and thoughts for the week ahead...
The economic calendar is light next week due to the holiday shortened week

Note: There will be no newsletter over the next couple of weeks as I will be away for the holiday season

Have a great Christmas all!
272059
 

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What's your outlook for Pound after New Year? Brexit is a big event I think lots of changes haven't been priced in Pound and the consensus will change frequently and quickly as the date of exit approaches.
 
hatemypips said:
What's your outlook for Pound after New Year? Brexit is a big event I think lots of changes haven't been priced in Pound and the consensus will change frequently and quickly as the date of exit approaches.
Click to expand...

I think we'll naturally see a retracement following the strong Q4 rally it had last year. After such a sharp rally following the election victory by Boris Johnson, a pause would be healthy. I'd expect a pullback to around 1.2700-1.2760 in the short to medium term.
GBP/USD (chart below) put in a major double bottom at 1.2000 so it seems like the low is in. I see the price heading sideways to up once we've had the retracement to around 1.2700. It'll stay range bound between the 1.2700 and 1.3680-1.3700 region in my view with a bias towards the upside. Unless it breaks 1.3700 I don't see it going much further.
I think the UK will leave the EU by the end of this month but the challenge will be agreeing a trade deal by the end of the year which is where I think we'll see volatility in sterling as it'll continue to be headline driven...lets see what 2020 brings!

Happy New Year!


272564
 
Level_Trader said:
I think we'll naturally see a retracement following the strong Q4 rally it had last year. After such a sharp rally following the election victory by Boris Johnson, a pause would be healthy. I'd expect a pullback to around 1.2700-1.2760 in the short to medium term.
GBP/USD (chart below) put in a major double bottom at 1.2000 so it seems like the low is in. I see the price heading sideways to up once we've had the retracement to around 1.2700. It'll stay range bound between the 1.2700 and 1.3680-1.3700 region in my view with a bias towards the upside. Unless it breaks 1.3700 I don't see it going much further.
I think the UK will leave the EU by the end of this month but the challenge will be agreeing a trade deal by the end of the year which is where I think we'll see volatility in sterling as it'll continue to be headline driven...lets see what 2020 brings!

Happy New Year!


View attachment 272564
Click to expand...
How did you determine that medium-term support should be at 1.28? I hold GBPUSD shorts with Hotforex from 1.31 and it's not clear now will the Pound react lower to the recent fears related to economic slowdown and BoE growing bias towards easing? Or the main focus related on discussions about the new economic deal with EU?
 
hatemypips said:
How did you determine that medium-term support should be at 1.28? I hold GBPUSD shorts with Hotforex from 1.31 and it's not clear now will the Pound react lower to the recent fears related to economic slowdown and BoE growing bias towards easing? Or the main focus related on discussions about the new economic deal with EU?
Click to expand...
If you look at how many times there has been a break below or above along with retests you can see it is a major level.
We've had 2 break outs below with the price retesting to confirm the level as resistance and 2 breaks to the up side confirming the same level as support.
We've also had one false break out where the price managed to hang onto that level (gravestone and dragonfly dojis back to back)
I think you'll do ok on your short position, the economic data in the UK has been weaker than expected of late reinforcing the view that the BOE will cut rates later this year.
 
Market recap and thoughts for the week ahead...

If you are taking on risk please remember to adjust your position size accordingly... reflecting current market volatility. The average true range has increased dramatically across various assets.
 

Attachments

Hi guys I’ve had great feed back from this thread before so here’s another video I’ve made About RSI indicators, helping you beginners out!
m.youtube.com

Jason Avis

This channel was created to try and help beginner traders get started. Hopefully as we go along, everyone will be able to take something from the videos whet...
m.youtube.com m.youtube.com
 
Jasonavis121 said:
Hi guys I’ve had great feed back from this thread before so here’s another video I’ve made About RSI indicators, helping you beginners out!
m.youtube.com

Jason Avis

This channel was created to try and help beginner traders get started. Hopefully as we go along, everyone will be able to take something from the videos whet...
m.youtube.com m.youtube.com
Click to expand...
A 2:30 video on RSI isn't likely to change anyone's life when it comes to trading.. some feedback I would suggest to improve your content:

(1) Disclaimer, that although RSI is an indicator worth using it should not be used in isolation for making trading decisions. This is because it is a lagging indicator
(2) Focus more on price action as this is what is actually driving markets!
(3) Do not assume you know more than your audience as every trader brings a unique perspective/view to the market which may help even the most experienced traders (you can never know everything as each trading day brings something new)
 
Level_Trader said:
A 2:30 video on RSI isn't likely to change anyone's life when it comes to trading.. some feedback I would suggest to improve your content:

(1) Disclaimer, that although RSI is an indicator worth using it should not be used in isolation for making trading decisions. This is because it is a lagging indicator
(2) Focus more on price action as this is what is actually driving markets!
(3) Do not assume you know more than your audience as every trader brings a unique perspective/view to the market which may help even the most experienced traders (you can never know everything as each trading day brings something new)
Click to expand...
 
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