Swing trading FTSE100 members

[tomorton]

Weekend round-up, after an interesting afternoon move to the upside on Friday - though ptrobably still only part of a bear flag.

Short open -
Smith & Nephew

Longs open -
Aggreko
Hargreaves Lansdowne
Intercontinental Hotels
Smiths Group
Unilever
Whitbread
Bunzl

Orders cancelled -
Xstrata
Admiral
Glencore International
(longs: price fell below previous swing low)

Long orders pending -
Aberdeen Asset Management (entry lowered)
Imperial Tobacco (entry lowered)
Rolls Royce
Croda International (added today)

Have a good Sunday all!

 

[barjon]

Tomo

I'm intrigued by how many entry signals you seem to be getting You seem to be trading a lot of chop and I can't quite see how you are establishing trend. Rivalland maintains that a trend continues until an earlier swing low (high) is broken and applying that gives me a very different picture to yours.

For example, you say that you are long aggreko whereas by my reckoning you should be holding short unless you had an exit strategy that took you out of it on Friday (an exit strategy worth considering btw).

The thumbnail shows how I see it:

cheers

jon

ps: just noticed i missed one in the final count which might explain how you're in up trend although you'd be hard pressed not to see it just as a false start

 

[dazpara]

Hi Tomo, excellent thread, im a beginner and have chosen swing trading as the strategy that i will concentrate my efforts towards, so this is of particular interest and i have already taken snippets from your strategy and applied them to mine(hope you don't mind) and taken on board the advice given by others. I'll leave the thread run but as im developing my strategy i would possibly pose a few questions along the way if that is okay?

 

[tomorton]

Thanks for the messages chaps, I'll be able to respond when I get home later.

Questions welcome dazpara (and thanks for your words) but as long as you're aware this is a strategy in development, not a honed and perfected model, so any answers from me may not be final and definitive.

 

[tomorton]

Tonight's position summary -
Triggered and stopped out today -
Whitbread

Long entry prices lowered -
Imperial Tobacco
Rolls Royce

New long orders -
British Land
Whitbread

Long order cancelled -
Aberdeen Asset Management

Hoping the US keep buying tonight.

 

[tomorton]

INdex charts in London and US look increasingly bearish. Took the opportunity of the bounce this am to close all open longs, leaving just short Smith & Nephew open. Have left the untriggered long orders open in case the bounce gets really energetic, though I don't expect they will be triggered.

 

[tomorton]

Hello Jon -

This means I have closed the Aggreko long, at just under break-even. I concede it was not in an uptrend, but I took the swing low of 09/05 above prior swing low 11/04, and last swing high 20/04 just above previous 27/03: together giving a nascent uptrend channel.

I also read the swing lows 06/03 and 11/04 as being so close (1.0p difference) that they effectively look more like a double bottom than a break into lower prices.

Overall though, this trade was conter to the indices and I wish I'd taken a little profit on Friday, it was most unlikely to have legs to challenge the 20/04 high.

Onwards and upwards.

 

[tomorton]

Short still running -
Smith & Nephew

Long orders lowered -
Imperial Tobacco
Whitbread

Unchanged long orders -
Rolls Royce
Croda International

Unchanged short order -
British Land

New short order -
Intertek

May FTSE100 5d volatility still averaging about 30% higher than Q1. Chop? - Not 'arf!

 

[tomorton]

Intertek and British Land shorts stopped out this pm, Croda long triggered and running, with Smith & Nephew short.

Imperial Tobacco, Rolls Royce and Whitbread long orders lowered, new G4S short order added, plus new long Hargreaves Lansdowne.

The devil makes work for idle hands.

 

[tomorton]

Smith & Nephew short nearly reached initial target so trying new approach to exits, closed half position, remainder running on trailing stop.

 

[tomorton]

Week's end - G4S short triggered, Imperial Tobacco Long Cancelled, Rolls Royce Long, Whitbread Long Hargreaves Lansdowne Long lowered. Land Securities Long added. Imperial Tobacco Long cancelled.

 

[tomorton]

Interesting day. See the Facebook guys get pummelled. Kind of sad really.

Land Securities Long Triggered.

Hargreaves Lansdowne Long lowered. Antofagasta Short set. Unilever Long set. United Utilities Long set.

 

[tomorton]

Unilever long stopped out, Rolls Royce, Whitbread, Hargreaves Lansdowne, United Utilities longs triggered. Antofagasta Short entry level raised, CRH, Intertek and Rexam short orders added.

 

[tomorton]

Remaining portion of Smith & Nephew Short closed for profit by trailing stop, Land Securities Long stopped out.

Antofagasta and Rexam Shorts triggered.

Sage and Smith & Nephew sell orders added.

The Apprentice tonight!

 

[tomorton]

Half United Utilities long closed for profit, remainder under trailing stop.

Intertek and Smith & Nephew sell orders raised.

CRH short triggered.

New AMEC, ARM, Capital Shopping Centres, Experian sell orders added.

 

[tomorton]

Friday's EOD report -

No orders triggered, no stops / limits hit.

Intertek, Smith & Nephew, ARM, Capital Shopping Centres, Experian sell orders raised.

New sell orders added for BG, Tate & Lyle, Vodafone, WPP added.

 

[tomorton]

Perhaps the market's reaching a tipping point, plenty of sell orders added, some raised to higher entry levels. This can't continue. To summarise -

G4S short stopped out, half of Whitbread long closed at target. Intertek sell order cancelled as price gets above last swing high, let Vodafone go too, messy chart.

Experian and Tate & Lyle sell order entry levels raised.

New sell orders added for Aggreko, BT, Compass, Old Mutual, Schroders, Tullow Oil, Wolseley.

 

[tomorton]

Half Rolls Royce position closed at initial profit target, initial stop on rest moved to b/e.

CRH short stopped out.

Smith & Nephew, ARM, Experian, BG, Tate & Lyle, Old Mutual, Schroders, Tullow Oil sell order levels raised.

AMEC sell order level lowered a bit.

Half Wolseley position closed at initial profit level.

BT, Compass shorts triggered.

New sell orders entered for Admiral, Burberry, CRH, Glencore International, ICAP, Johnson Matthey, Serco.

Crazy times.

 

[tomorton]

BT, Schroders stopped out, half Capital Shopping Centres short closed at target, high hopes for the remainder given the chunky gap.

Nearly all sell orders triggered today - Smith & Nephew, AMEC, ARM, Experian, BG, Tate & Lyle, Aggreko, Old Mutual, Tullow Oil, Admiral Caps, Burberry, CRH, Glencore International, ICAP, Johnson Matthey, Serco.

Even if the market drops like a stone tomorrow, I don't hink this will turn out to be the greatest month of trading ever.

 

[China Diapers]

I don't hink this will turn out to be the greatest month of trading ever.

Oh good, it's not just me then