Swing-day trading US stocks

Hi DWL, was just looking over your thread today since my market is closed. Nothing wrong with your English by the way, very clear.
You mention risk reward quite a lot, suggesting to me that it is an important consideration to you. I simply may not have seen a r/r expressed like this as I cannot make the figure match my own assessment. I wonder could you show me how you calculate your risk reward, as shown in this example from above.
1 SAFM

Setup date: 08/31/2006

Long above: 30.20, stop under: 29.80, target: 32.00 areas, exit: 31.65, r/r: 3.11

Thanx
 
roguetrader said:
Hi DWL, was just looking over your thread today since my market is closed. Nothing wrong with your English by the way, very clear.
You mention risk reward quite a lot, suggesting to me that it is an important consideration to you. I simply may not have seen a r/r expressed like this as I cannot make the figure match my own assessment. I wonder could you show me how you calculate your risk reward, as shown in this example from above.
1 SAFM

Setup date: 08/31/2006

Long above: 30.20, stop under: 29.80, target: 32.00 areas, exit: 31.65, r/r: 3.11

Thanx
Click to expand...


Hi,

I count on this way: SAFM was long above 30.25, so entry was at 30.25, with stop under 29.60.
30.25 - 20.80 = 0.45 - that is risk amount

exit was at 31.65
31.65 - 30.25 = 1.40 - gain amount (reward)

reward/risk = 1.40/0.45 = 3.11

good trading
Ivica
 
DWL said:
Hi,

I count on this way: SAFM was long above 30.25, so entry was at 30.25, with stop under 29.60.
30.25 - 20.80 = 0.45 - that is risk amount

exit was at 31.65
31.65 - 30.25 = 1.40 - gain amount (reward)

reward/risk = 1.40/0.45 = 3.11

good trading
Ivica
Click to expand...
Ok I understand, you calculate your risk / reward in hindsight, normally risk / reward would be a consideration before entering the trade and would therefore be the relationship between projected entry, stop, and target. Was just curious, no biggie. Thanx for the reply.
 
roguetrader said:
Ok I understand, you calculate your risk / reward in hindsight, normally risk / reward would be a consideration before entering the trade and would therefore be the relationship between projected entry, stop, and target. Was just curious, no biggie. Thanx for the reply.
Click to expand...

Reason why I do on this way is that with my trading plan, entry and stop I will calculate my risk and how many shares i want take. For me that is very important part of trading because without risk managment i dont think that i will trade long time.

apologies for language misstakes

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 09/05/2006:

Good day!

Those who read Thursday's commentary and expectations for the next day saw that we got exactly what I expected. While we didn't see a strong trend day, the SPY and DIA did get a nice move after the 60 min high was broken. When I look at the daily and weekly charts I see room for the SPY and DIA to move up to daily/weekly highs. From that standpoint I have a bullish bias. My biggest worry
is the QQQ. The tech index didn't follow the same action and stayed under the daily resistance area; therefore, the double top pattern is still a possibility. Long traders will be hoping that the SPY and DIA will
take QQQ with them to the upside. Also as I expected, Friday's volume wasn't strong on the breakout because of the long weekend. Most big players were gone well before the market closed. For now my bias for the next few weeks is on the long side, but as usual I will go with the market action. Our longs are going well and I will look for continuations.
http://multimedia.ifs.hr/trading/Records.aspx (registration is FREE).

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09052006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09052006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09052006dia.jpg

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 09/06/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BDE long above: 17.13, stop under: 16.60, target: 20 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006bde.jpg
Earning date: Aug 03, 2006

EPD long above: 27.00, stop under: 26.15 (26.43), target: 30 areas ST-PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006epd.jpg
Earning date: July 25, 2006

HC, PTV, PSSI still valid
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006hc.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006ptv.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006pssi.jpg

if you want see full watch list take a look at:
www.tradingskills4profit.com

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

EAT long above: 38.90, stop under: 38.42, target: 40 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006eat.jpg
Earning date: Oct 24, 2006


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

MDC short under: 42.00, stop above: 43.15, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006mdc.jpg
Earning date: July 20, 2006

AAI short under: 10.98, stop above: 11.29, target: 10 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006aai.jpg
Earning date: July 27, 2006

STMP still valid
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006stmp.jpg

Good luck trading
Ivica
 
Hi DWL,
Great work! I was wondering what type of software you use that gives you the number of shares to trade. I have been trying to find a program that will help me determine my position size, and my risk to reward. I have been trading mostly SPY. This keeps it simple. If I had a good program I good trade more. Thanks for your help!
[email protected]
 
martinh1 said:
Hi DWL,
Great work! I was wondering what type of software you use that gives you the number of shares to trade. I have been trying to find a program that will help me determine my position size, and my risk to reward. I have been trading mostly SPY. This keeps it simple. If I had a good program I good trade more. Thanks for your help!
[email protected]
Click to expand...

Hi Martin. I use Qcharts for trading and scanning. That is manual work, because I believe that is the best way to see all interested charts. I need few hours every day after the market close for my watch list. Hope this help, and thanks you. Glad you like my work

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 09/07/2006:

Good day!
.
Yesterday's market was a classic bull trap. The market opened with a gap down under the previous day's
low which brought the bears out. On a bull trap I generally wait for the 5 min low to print and then go with the sellers. On the SPY 5 min chart you can see the setup. The stop is above the 5 min high. That is the general plan. It's also very important to watch the first 15/30 minutes of trading action.

After the opening gap and consolidation, the indices started to play bear music and we had a nice downtrend day. That wasn't in line with our open long positions thus triggering some of our trailing stops. Some positions are still ok as can be seen on our tracking records. MDC had a very nice day, and is approaching the first support area which is a whole number support area at 40.

Following yesterday's trap I expect to see a consolidation day on the 15/30 min charts. I'm anticipating some selling in the morning and then consolidation will start and very possibly continue for rest of the day. Volume on yesterday's selling wasn't very strong and because of that I don't expect to see a strong daily reversal. That means that today I will mostly watch for intraday moves.

On the longer time frame I still see a move up for the SPY and DIA, but they'll need a few more days of
correction before that possibility comes into play. I'm still looking for the daily 20sma to move into a stronger support area. As usual I will go with the market and then decide.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006dia.jpg

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic

Watch list for 09/07/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PTV is still valid
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006ptv.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

DDR long above: 54.58, stop under: 54.25, target: 55 for DT, open for ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006ddr.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006

EAT long above: 39.00 stop under: 38.70, target: 40 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006eat.jpg
Earning date: Oct 24, 2006


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BID short under: 27.00, stop above: 28.08, target: 25 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006bid.jpg
Earning date: Aug 02, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

CPS short under: 35.80, stop above: 36.00, target: 35 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006cps.jpg
Earning date: July 20, 2006

PCLN short under: 30.72, stop above: 31.05, target: 30 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006pcln.jpg
Earning date: Aug 07, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006cbss.jpg

Short: -

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


Daily watch list tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
 
Market commentary for 09/07/2006:

Good day!
.
Yesterday's market was a classic bull trap. The market opened with a gap down under the previous day's
low which brought the bears out. On a bull trap I generally wait for the 5 min low to print and then go with the sellers. On the SPY 5 min chart you can see the setup. The stop is above the 5 min high. That is the general plan. It's also very important to watch the first 15/30 minutes of trading action.

After the opening gap and consolidation, the indices started to play bear music and we had a nice downtrend day. That wasn't in line with our open long positions thus triggering some of our trailing stops. Some positions are still ok as can be seen on our tracking records. MDC had a very nice day, and is approaching the first support area which is a whole number support area at 40.

Following yesterday's trap I expect to see a consolidation day on the 15/30 min charts. I'm anticipating some selling in the morning and then consolidation will start and very possibly continue for rest of the day. Volume on yesterday's selling wasn't very strong and because of that I don't expect to see a strong daily reversal. That means that today I will mostly watch for intraday moves.

On the longer time frame I still see a move up for the SPY and DIA, but they'll need a few more days of
correction before that possibility comes into play. I'm still looking for the daily 20sma to move into a stronger support area. As usual I will go with the market and then decide.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006dia.jpg

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic

Watch list for 09/07/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PTV is still valid
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006ptv.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

DDR long above: 54.58, stop under: 54.25, target: 55 for DT, open for ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006ddr.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006

EAT long above: 39.00 stop under: 38.70, target: 40 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006eat.jpg
Earning date: Oct 24, 2006


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BID short under: 27.00, stop above: 28.08, target: 25 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006bid.jpg
Earning date: Aug 02, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

CPS short under: 35.80, stop above: 36.00, target: 35 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006cps.jpg
Earning date: July 20, 2006

PCLN short under: 30.72, stop above: 31.05, target: 30 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006pcln.jpg
Earning date: Aug 07, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09072006cbss.jpg

Short: -

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
 
Market commentary for 09/08/2006:

Good day!
.
My expectations for the market at the open came to fruition. The market opened to the down side and as I expected and it tested the 20ma daily support area. The 20ma daily held support on the first try to break down on the QQQQ and the SPY daily charts. The DIA was very close to that area. As a lesson or reminder the support and resistance is not an exact number it is an area. I believe a continuation of yesterday correction will continue today. Intraday action the QQQQ had problems with the 200ma 15 min resistance area and the SPY with 200ma and the 20ma resistance area on 30 min chart. I always use 20sma area because that is significant area on any time frame and very often the trend will change only after breaking that area. It is also very rare the 20ma will be broken on 1st try and because of that I pay attention to it on every time frame. Because of that I expected that daily 20ma will hold yesterday selling.
All the indices held intraday resistances and they all came back to the daily low area (especially DIA 15 min chart). That will now be a stronger intraday support area and a high probability to see 15 min double top pattern. Today at open I will look for 2b action. If that doesn't hold we will see another try to break down, and that will be 3rd try I will go again with the shorts for another round of selling. If 2b will hold then I will wait to see indices to break 20ma 15 min resistance area for possible move up. Those are 2 scenarios what I will follow at start. Remember to trade cautiously until the market gives us a clear direction.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09082006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09082006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09082006dia.jpg

watch list is at: www.tradingskills4profit.com

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 09/11/2006:

Good day!

Overall Friday was a consolidation day. This came after the selling wave from the daily high during the week. Today started with selling with the market hitting a double bottom on the 15/30 min charts. This held for the rest of the day. The bounce was weak as we continued with whippy intraday action what was good for fast trades.
AAI swing trade made our day and week with very nice gap down and hit the target area ( AAI; AAI). On QQQQ daily chart the 10ma held and same with SPY daily chart. Monday's action will be important because if we don't see a bounce from daily 20ma support area, there will be a high probability to form a daily avalanche pattern and a continuation of the daily correction. You can see on SPY and QQQQ daily chart that correction from the high with stronger wave then move to daily high. That is the kind of action I want see when I look for correction and reversal trend. After one day of consolidation is too early to say what will be. The first few days next week will be important to see if we bounce back to the daily high resistance area or will we stay within the consolidation for another step down. Those are just ideas what I will look for and as usual I will go with market action. Generally I will expect another day with more choppy intraday action..

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006dia.jpg

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Watch list for 09/11/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

IGT long above: 39.30, stop under: 36.50 (37.50), target: 50 areas ST-PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006igt.jpg
Earning date: Nov 07, 2006


I am always available via email if you have any questions or if you want full watch list: [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
People who follow my work know that I really like when a triple top or bottom tries to break. This is one of my favorite patterns. Most of time we could say the breakout on the 3rd try is the charm. . While learning and honing my skills I would often get faked out with lots of flags and too often made the wrong decision with the gradual selling. I would often see a slightly new high or a double top (2T pattern). At that time I didn’t know how to react in that situation. So I had problems with flags intra day. In that case lots of time after double top, or slightly higher high you will see another pull back (smaller then previous) and you will get triangle formation. Risk is what I really like in that pattern. Risk is always smaller and smaller.

Here is one example what you can see on watch list what I send here in forum.

AAI was setup from 09/06/2006

symbol AAI
date entry 09/06/2006
entry 10.95
stop 11.29
trailing stop 11.00
target area 10.00
exit 9.10
% result 16.89
result 1.85
risk/ reward 5.44

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09062006aai.jpg

Yesterday AAI was open with the nice gap down and finished morning selling at second target area. On daily chart above you can see nice triangle action with 3rd try to break down.

After 5 min action I marked high and that was trailing stop for AAI. You all know that my main measure for success is risk/ reward, and on AAI example you can see that is over 5. This mean that my reward is 5 times bigger then my risk in this trade.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006aai.jpg

This is chart after yesterday action and from there you can clearly see action. .

If anyone will have any question feels free to contact me.

Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 09/12/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RTN long above: 48.00, stop under: 47.43, target: 50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006rtn.jpg
Earning date: Oct 26, 2006

SHLD long above: 152.50, stop under: 148.25, target: 160 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006shld.jpg
Earning date: Aug 17, 2006

BIDU long above: 80.62, stop under: 77.80, target: 90 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006bidu.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006

NTLI long above: 27.31, stop under: 26.32, target: 30 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006ntli.jpg
Earning date: Aug 08, 2006

IGT is still valid http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09112006igt.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

DADE long above: 41.27, stop under: 40.73, target: 42 (43) areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006dade.jpg
Earning date: July 25, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006pssi.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006knd.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006vclk.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006wynn.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006pacr.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006ndaq.jpg

I am always available via email if you have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
 
Watch list for 09/13/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

KND long above: 32.00, stop under: 30.50, target: 35 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09132006knd.jpg
Earning date: July 31, 2006


I am always available via email if you want more ideas or have any questions. [email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 09/14/2006
http://www.tradingskills4profit.com

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

KND long above: 32.00, stop under: 30.50, target: 35 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09142006knd.jpg
Earning date: July 31, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

WEBX long above: 38.65 (38.55), stop under: 38.24, target: 40 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09142006webx.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006

CTL long above: 40.00, stop under: 37.75, target: 41 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09142006ctl.jpg
Earning date: July 27, 2006

MHP long above: 57.03, stop under: 56.78, target: 58 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09142006mhp.jpg
Earning date: July 25, 2006
 
Good day,

Hope you all who follow my watch list enjoy in what you see. Like to show you 2 examples what we had this week. Hope you all took it.

1. BIDU from 09/12/2006
Chart before setup:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006bidu.jpg

Today daily chart
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09152006bidu.jpg


2. SHLD
Chart before setup:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09122006shld.jpg

Today daily chart
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09152006shld.jpg

If anyone will need more information and have any question feel free to contact me at : [email protected], or send me private message.

Wish all nice weekend
Ivica
 
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