barjon
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techst@ said:
techst
Here's a couple that have been pretty reliable swingers in the past (both up and down) and after a messy period they may be about to resume their smoother ways. AVZ if the market keeps up or GUS if it turns down (but there's that black support line coming from previously well tested resistance to confuse things).
How do they look on your charts?
jon
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AVZ and GUS
GUS is a stock thats always been in my watchlist and is looking like a good set up to trade. But I cant trade everything so i'll let this one pass. Theres nice rising volume when it reached 860 870 on my charts which helps. But for me its a bit of a skinny rabbit in terms of how much you can get out of the trade. Say you get in around 880 for me a short term target is the last high, so 910-920. Which is a 30-40 point move. Not counting slippage, 30-40 on a stock that price isn't a great percentage to be taking out of a swing. I like to trade fatter rabbits lower priced with bigger percentage swings in price. Catching less of the move and getting a good profit is still possible on the lower priced issues. The two longer EMA's on the chart show a value area which i like to buy in or around, and on my daily everythings certainly in gear. Its gonna be interesting to watch that one progress.
AVZ, not too keen on this one, looks similar to many others stocks price patterns at the moment like BAY, CW, GKN, CKSN. 320 may be good support but i would'nt bet on it. Its a stock that i'll watch from now, but wait for the next retracement before entering. The Weekly MACD is in gear confirming a more dynamic upward move, but im still fully committed and need a stock to move to area where i can use a break even or micro profit stop. So even if the 320 area doesn't hold 310 might be the starting point. Each to his own though. Thanks for sharing that one.
GUS is a stock thats always been in my watchlist and is looking like a good set up to trade. But I cant trade everything so i'll let this one pass. Theres nice rising volume when it reached 860 870 on my charts which helps. But for me its a bit of a skinny rabbit in terms of how much you can get out of the trade. Say you get in around 880 for me a short term target is the last high, so 910-920. Which is a 30-40 point move. Not counting slippage, 30-40 on a stock that price isn't a great percentage to be taking out of a swing. I like to trade fatter rabbits lower priced with bigger percentage swings in price. Catching less of the move and getting a good profit is still possible on the lower priced issues. The two longer EMA's on the chart show a value area which i like to buy in or around, and on my daily everythings certainly in gear. Its gonna be interesting to watch that one progress.
AVZ, not too keen on this one, looks similar to many others stocks price patterns at the moment like BAY, CW, GKN, CKSN. 320 may be good support but i would'nt bet on it. Its a stock that i'll watch from now, but wait for the next retracement before entering. The Weekly MACD is in gear confirming a more dynamic upward move, but im still fully committed and need a stock to move to area where i can use a break even or micro profit stop. So even if the 320 area doesn't hold 310 might be the starting point. Each to his own though. Thanks for sharing that one.
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Couple of live trades on this thread
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=142561#post142561
Rare to find UK swingers on this site.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=142561#post142561
Rare to find UK swingers on this site.
barjon
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mmm, I was thinking of GUS in the other direction!! It made a new swing high today (potential) which would give an entry around 880 with target around 826 - 800. That nearby support area is a worry - even though the line's been broken it's not by much. Secondly, I won't go against the 15ma trend of the market which is flat at the moment. If it pops tomorrow it probably won't satisfy all my conditions.
After several months not even logging in here, I am looking for the correct thread to post (and ask questions) about Timing cube ( www.timingcube.com for anybody to check)
It seems that this is a very easy means of taking the emotion out of when to trade swings on indices.
Not only that but by using CFDs to gear the investing, I should be able to select the maximum likely loss of invested capital for anything other than a complete disaster.
So what I need is:
Is this the right thread?
Or should I start a special thread - and where on the BB?
Cheers and looking forward to your ideas.
It seems that this is a very easy means of taking the emotion out of when to trade swings on indices.
Not only that but by using CFDs to gear the investing, I should be able to select the maximum likely loss of invested capital for anything other than a complete disaster.
So what I need is:
Is this the right thread?
Or should I start a special thread - and where on the BB?
Cheers and looking forward to your ideas.
TheBramble
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Hi David. There is a 'commercial trading systems' forum, but given the specific nature of the product here would seem as good. (The mods may well move it for you anyway).
With a service that "detects major trend changes in the broad market and issues simple, definitive Buy and Sell signals, on average three to five times per year" it may be a little of the 'passive' side for the more active traders on these boards, but it'll be interesting to see if anyone uses/has used them.
Why do you ask? What have you heard about them other than their website?
With a service that "detects major trend changes in the broad market and issues simple, definitive Buy and Sell signals, on average three to five times per year" it may be a little of the 'passive' side for the more active traders on these boards, but it'll be interesting to see if anyone uses/has used them.
Why do you ask? What have you heard about them other than their website?
Tony,
Thanks for your quick reply. I was impressed with the methodology which they explain in some detail.
They quote various limits as to when and why they change tack and the overall performance is excellent, particularly when geared up.
For example the maximum downside witnessed to date has been 9%. If I choose to accept a loss of approaching 30% as my maximum, then I can gear up using CFDs on the selected index by a factor of 3+.
CFDs on indexes seem to run at an initial margin of 7.5% which is 13.3x geared.
If you understand all this it means I can trade comfortably with only 25% of my capital committed.
Now the downside. Looking at their recent performance, they, like all derivative traders have fallen foul of the recent choppy markets. On the other hand they gained 30+% over the previous period and that geared up by 3x is over 100% in under a year.
Thanks for your quick reply. I was impressed with the methodology which they explain in some detail.
They quote various limits as to when and why they change tack and the overall performance is excellent, particularly when geared up.
For example the maximum downside witnessed to date has been 9%. If I choose to accept a loss of approaching 30% as my maximum, then I can gear up using CFDs on the selected index by a factor of 3+.
CFDs on indexes seem to run at an initial margin of 7.5% which is 13.3x geared.
If you understand all this it means I can trade comfortably with only 25% of my capital committed.
Now the downside. Looking at their recent performance, they, like all derivative traders have fallen foul of the recent choppy markets. On the other hand they gained 30+% over the previous period and that geared up by 3x is over 100% in under a year.
TheBramble
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9% of what? Entire trading capital?aspex said:
30%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!aspex said:
I'd be getting a little nervous after my 3rd successive losing trade....
Do you get to tailor your risk to any level you choose? If not...you're really in their hands and the lap of the gods. If you can, then it might be an option for those that don't want to actively trade and/or do their own research.Did they state how much they lost in the 'recent choppy markets'?aspex said:
It may seem rash but my trading capital is only 8% of funds invested.
So a -30% is under 3% of total invested capital.
So I am happy with those figures.
Puts it all in context, I hope.
You have complete control - it's your money and they provide only the reasoning for action.
Hence I may sell out at -5% rather than -9%
The important feature is the emotion is taken out of the sell/buy/go to cash options.
A simple summary of actual trading is at :
http://www.timingcube.com/results/#cumulative
Obviously the "within period" movements are more than -2.67% for the choppy period and may have initiated a sell at the -5% level.
So a -30% is under 3% of total invested capital.
So I am happy with those figures.
Puts it all in context, I hope.
You have complete control - it's your money and they provide only the reasoning for action.
Hence I may sell out at -5% rather than -9%
The important feature is the emotion is taken out of the sell/buy/go to cash options.
A simple summary of actual trading is at :
http://www.timingcube.com/results/#cumulative
Obviously the "within period" movements are more than -2.67% for the choppy period and may have initiated a sell at the -5% level.
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New swinger
Hello all (& techst@ - good thread )
I'm relatively new to spread betting and TA, but I'm getting there slowly.
Anyway - I'd be interested to hear other people's opinions about this situation. I've entered a short on EMG.L (at 1385) yesterday (9th June) , and until today was expecting EMG's price to bounce down off the resistance level at 1400, which has been tested several times.
Unfortunately today it opened above the 1400 mark (although it may form into a star).
But will the 1400 level now become support ?
The chart I use is EMG 8 June - (second chart just current position).
Have a look at my charts and feel free to pass some comments, - I need the help!
Rex79
Hello all (& techst@ - good thread )
I'm relatively new to spread betting and TA, but I'm getting there slowly.
Anyway - I'd be interested to hear other people's opinions about this situation. I've entered a short on EMG.L (at 1385) yesterday (9th June) , and until today was expecting EMG's price to bounce down off the resistance level at 1400, which has been tested several times.
Unfortunately today it opened above the 1400 mark (although it may form into a star).
But will the 1400 level now become support ?
The chart I use is EMG 8 June - (second chart just current position).
Have a look at my charts and feel free to pass some comments, - I need the help!
Rex79
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barjon
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rex
emg is in my stable. From a slightly different perspective I've been waiting for a long entry since it went into uptrend (for me) when it rose above the last swing high, but no opportunity and now it's stalled against the second last swing high which may offer some resistance - all depicted on the first chart.
1400 is clearly an important level. After a couple of months giving support late in 03 and then resistance for a similar period almost a year later it then broke back through and spent a long time bouncing back and forth (the yellow range on second chart) and it's now got back into it without much trouble after the trip south.
Where to now? Your guess is as good as mine. It may retrace a bit from here (that minor swing high resistance) which would be good for your short and maybe give me a long entry to consider. Or it may bounce around again within the + and - 1400 range as it did before. Or it may keep steaming north. The range limits are key "watch it" points I think.
Not sure if all that's a help or a hindrance
good trading
jon
emg is in my stable. From a slightly different perspective I've been waiting for a long entry since it went into uptrend (for me) when it rose above the last swing high, but no opportunity and now it's stalled against the second last swing high which may offer some resistance - all depicted on the first chart.
1400 is clearly an important level. After a couple of months giving support late in 03 and then resistance for a similar period almost a year later it then broke back through and spent a long time bouncing back and forth (the yellow range on second chart) and it's now got back into it without much trouble after the trip south.
Where to now? Your guess is as good as mine. It may retrace a bit from here (that minor swing high resistance) which would be good for your short and maybe give me a long entry to consider. Or it may bounce around again within the + and - 1400 range as it did before. Or it may keep steaming north. The range limits are key "watch it" points I think.
Not sure if all that's a help or a hindrance
good trading
jon
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EMG is heavily dependent upon the success (or otherwise) of its AHL fund..
Most hedge funds had a really bad time in Jan >April.
EMG has risen on the back of a 6% rise in the last month on AHL (3.48% last week)
The question is whether this is to continue.
Current price is $23.80 - the low in Jan and April was $22.41 after a high of well over $24 in Feb 2004.
A significant chunk of income will only accrue once the fund reaches $24.35 again though they continue to rip management fees out of the fund.
The last SP high was in April '04 just over 2 months after the AHL high , although it did have a minor resurgence to $24.13 in early March '04
Make of that what you will.
Most hedge funds had a really bad time in Jan >April.
EMG has risen on the back of a 6% rise in the last month on AHL (3.48% last week)
The question is whether this is to continue.
Current price is $23.80 - the low in Jan and April was $22.41 after a high of well over $24 in Feb 2004.
A significant chunk of income will only accrue once the fund reaches $24.35 again though they continue to rip management fees out of the fund.
The last SP high was in April '04 just over 2 months after the AHL high , although it did have a minor resurgence to $24.13 in early March '04
Make of that what you will.
Thanks Aspex, and barjon,
I think I've entered into this one a bit early, I'll have to just sit this out !
Aspex - I knew nothing about EMG's dependancy on the ASL fund, I'm working purely from charts with no background knowledge of the company (I have a lack of time) - admittedly I'd be in a better position if I could do some background digging.
Thanks for your responses.
I think I've entered into this one a bit early, I'll have to just sit this out !
Aspex - I knew nothing about EMG's dependancy on the ASL fund, I'm working purely from charts with no background knowledge of the company (I have a lack of time) - admittedly I'd be in a better position if I could do some background digging.
Thanks for your responses.
down
Afternoon All,
I'm hoping this is another one that's heading down I think there's going to be a worthy retracement after what appears to me to be a triple top.
Once again - I'll have to see.
I still fancy EMG to drop back - but have today realised that my short bet expired today 14 rather than next month - ****! (tried to use mobile phone to place bet, pressed wrong button- fool!).
once again - all comments appreciated.
Afternoon All,
I'm hoping this is another one that's heading down I think there's going to be a worthy retracement after what appears to me to be a triple top.
Once again - I'll have to see.
I still fancy EMG to drop back - but have today realised that my short bet expired today 14 rather than next month - ****! (tried to use mobile phone to place bet, pressed wrong button- fool!).
once again - all comments appreciated.
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Rex79 said:
haha trading mistake can easily be made, i have made many of those, the most stupid one caused prudential being suspended from trading for a few minutes as i mistakenly took the entire order book out on the bid side and the LSE monitor team rang our compliance to find out what went wrong. sorry, its nothing to do with this thread, but just find rex79 calling himself a fool quite funny as it is exactly what i called myself at the time.
Interesting thread though i will follow this thread.
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Try www.cfds.com for general information
and www.minicfds.com which is part of finspreads and offer a cheap entry over five weeks , i believe.
The only disadvantage of CFDs is the possible CGT liability (but only if you live in the UK, sorry about that!)
and www.minicfds.com which is part of finspreads and offer a cheap entry over five weeks , i believe.
The only disadvantage of CFDs is the possible CGT liability (but only if you live in the UK, sorry about that!)
