Strongest G8 Currency in Q4 ? - COMPETITION !

[Jason Rogers]

Hey there T2W land !

heres a fun challenge to get us to Xmas ! :drunk:

Everyone is invited to play and the name of the game is calling the top gun currency for Q4 (1st October to end Dec 2012)

It will be judged using my FXCorrelator and can also be independently agreed (taking a lot longer though:whistling !) by looking at all the currency pairs to show the strongest Currency on 31/12/12

You can have up to 2 guesses gang if you want - or just the 1 if you are confident in your selection !

the Prize ?...........Respect .......

we have so many experts on T2W now it hurts ! .....so lets see who can REALLY call the shots and make money for people if they had been followed

If you want to say why please post freely - I dont care what you say .....but boy there could be some Lutz in january when we look back here !

so theres the challenge .........I want everyone on parade at T2W and lets have some fun ! arty:

in the next Post I will show you the runners and riders (jees I miss my horseracing days)

NVP

Hi N,

I see Q4 as transitionary. A lot of event risk to plow through:
US Election
US Debt Ceiling
US Fiscal Cliff
and now the economic impact of Hurricane Sandy

It appears that the worse case scenario is not being accounted for. Therefore, a potential for negative surprise exists. A negative surprise is likely to benefit the USDollar.

I do think there is the possibility of significant stimulus coming soon…perhaps after the election…perhaps after the markets roil for a bit.

Inflation from China and Australia is low. Stimulus tends to occur in low inflationary environments so the back drop is coming into focus. If stimulus happens (from US, China or possibly Europe), then reversing and selling the USD. If the stimulus comes from China, then I like buying AUD or NZD.

Jason

 

[NVP]

thanks Jason

October Closed below

Euro walked it
CHF 2nd (gasp !)
Yen was 4% off Euro at the back ........(thats my horse? )

c'mon all - vote vote vote ....dont stay part of the grey masses lurking on T2W

Hey it might get you out of that comfort zone finally - and towards the first steps needed to becoming a Trader ! (why are you here otherwise ?)

we dont bite !
N

 

[NVP]

Dear BoJ

leave my horse alone and let it roam free in Q4...sure I know you need to stimulate the Economy and Billions of Yen are on the line here, but I really need a winner badly at T2W ....so let it wait till 2013

thanks and love to all the gang
NVP

 

[NVP]

Interesting Psychology here !

Euro is ahead and we are already a 3rd into the race .........but still people refuse to acknowledge this as a potential winner of Q4

sound familiar all this year ?
N

 

[NVP]

another interesting reflection on this poll is that the USD is rarely the highest or lowest performer of the G8......sure it will present a bias over whatever period we chose but normally its not the biggest dog in the pack.....

the more recent prevelant outliers appear to be (monthly) AUD and Yen .....

heres the USD delivering just 1 outlier signal for a month in 18months !

N

 

[michael45]

Hello,

I selected Euro, What do you think about it ?.

 

[NVP]

Hello,

I selected Euro, What do you think about it ?.

Hey M

Given it won October comfortably I see it as a very good choice.....dont worry
to much about November as It will probably retrace a little....

N

 

[NVP]

Hey all

heres Early November......CAD kicking Butt

and NZD showing well in second place (see next post for NZD)

C'mon vote Vote Vote - have some fun here with me

N

 

[NVP]

heres the Position now for the Q4 race (Oct & Nov to date combined)

NZD to YEN gap is around 3%.....

Wow its tightening as the race settles down...Euro falls back into the pack after early front running ...now the NZD takes the lead after a nice opening November week .....

and Yen is well at the rear .....My horse ?

C'mon Yen ......anytime you want please ...dont make me wait till December dammit .....and dont give them all to much Gap ......

sure- I know you are fast in the sprints ....but dont give the leader more that 4-5% lead Pleeeease ....!!

N

 

[thunderstruck]

I would vote for Euro till the end of the year . I think this is technical because Germany wants a strong Euro and the US wanta to lower the value of the $ quietly. My bet would be on the Australian dollar .

Ps based on gut feeling . I will check some charts to see whats happening but i believe EUR/USD is politics and not money markets .

 

[NVP]

be scared ....

be scared AUD
be scared USD

here comes my Boy ..........the mighty YEN !!!

N

 

[NVP]

I would vote for Euro till the end of the year . I think this is technical because Germany wants a strong Euro and the US wanta to lower the value of the $ quietly. My bet would be on the Australian dollar .

Ps based on gut feeling . I will check some charts to see whats happening but i believe EUR/USD is politics and not money markets .

fair points.....fair points :smart:

 

[NVP]

hey all

cmon - its never to late to vote vote vote !

well here we are about halfway in the contest .....and we started polling a month into Q4 as well

so congrats to the AUD team (Captain currency) and the USD
dudes .....nice guys

but look at my Yen Horse.......look back at the first posts here and it was in the bottom position..... it was way way behind the pack and nowhere .....and I still backed it to win as the 8/1 outsider .....

even if you laid that bet now you would be in profit as Yen is the best performer in November so far creaming all currencies in its path ...and look at the bashing its given the euro on the chart below in November ......Yeoch

jees i'm good :innocent: .......but good enough to take the crown on 31/12 ?

time will tell....time will tell....for different reasons the AUD and the USD are going to be tough nuts to crack so I am already thinking second at best .......unless I have a lead into December .....hmmmmm :cheesy:
N

 

[NVP]

oops....................... .I spoke toooooooo soon !

my Yen call has turned into a kamikaze dive as the suicidal BoJ and a rising Dow send the yen to its lowest for a long time .......

such is life........thats the trouble with predictions.....they are based on market conditions at the time................and why I prefer Trading to being a tipster

N

 

[NVP]

i'm closing the poll in early December so place the bets now ......

The Winner gets a night out with the cast of "Towie"
second place gets 2 nights out with them .....

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

well i'm back in sunny England.......thanks again to the pilot who put us down safely last night in high winds and torrential rain (after leaving a perfect 25 degrees and sunny canaries)

Can someone please ask my wife why we are still continuing to live in this country ? (tee hee)

anyway I am unimpressed with my currency protege the Yen ....jees I leave for a few days of sun and tell Team Yen to just keep slowly moving up and it then proceeds to dump dump dump ......

the Yen is now some 7% off of the leader board of AUD,CHF and Euro

Now what would Mourhenio say to the seemingly defeated yen team with just about a month left ?

Well what about this

1) tell the Owners (Boj) to stop interefering and selling Stuff.....
2) Tell the Dow to fall now and reflect the fiscal cliff looming
3) and lets chuck a rock in AUD and EUR's next few games to get them off the Boil !

Game on ....bring on December

come on you Yen !!! :clap:
NVP

 

[Mr Flibble]

CFTC: Net US Dollar Long Position $9.8 Billion, More Than Triples
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires November 26, 2012 15:37 ET (20:37 GMT)

CFTC: Net Yen Short Position $7.9 Billion, Increases 64%
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires November 26, 2012 15:34 ET (20:34 GMT)

20:35*CFTC: Net Australian Dollar Long Decreases to 64,711 Contracts as of Nov 20

20:35*CFTC: Net Australian Dollar Long Position $6.7 Billion, Decreases 5%

20:34*CFTC: Net Yen Short Position Largest Since April 24

20:33*CFTC: Net Euro Short Position $14.6 Billion, Increases 10%

Interesting stuff I'm voting on the GBP

 

[NVP]

well Nov ends and heres a 1ma setting on my FXcorrelator MONTHLY.....X-men setting

Yen is being destroyed !

In truth I backed Yen to win the Q4 strongest currency competition........

I figured the Dow would cool and I was correct on that so far in Q4 Oct and Nov show falls.....

BUT........I never figured the yen would get so abused by the BoJ......so we see the unusual position of Dow falling and Yen falling.........

lets see if December fares better.....i will need more pressure on the Dow and that means 3 from 3 months in the Quarter........something that may not be possible unless the Fiscal cliff goes over the edge

thanks to all who are playing !
N

 

[NVP]

into December........final furlong......and the Euro has taken the lead.....

shall I tear up my Yen ticket now ?......

N

 

[NVP]

hey all.....

well well well...we are in the final week of real action and then things will lock down

so what has happened in the last week or 2 ?

Well more woe from Japan (yellow x) ...........I hold my hand high as making a very risky play/call and having to now sit through the consequences and embarassment of actually having the WEAKEST currency in Q4 by a mile !....in fact the nearest currency (green USD) is still some 6-7% above Yens "Quartus Horriblus !"

hey it all fell apart after my call and if you follow forex you will know the scenario that actually made Yen THE sell in Q4 for most of the proceedings (hey I've been selling it mostly myself as well - but you know that if you read my thread !)

else where we see the dark blue x EURO leading the pack .............let me repeat that for those of you reading.......the EURO could win the strongest Currency in Q4 competion !

Jees i didnt see that coming .......the euro has taken nearly 10% off of the Yen in Q4...........10% !!!


and look at the Turquoise NZD.........this is the rank outsider.....came from nowhere and is in with a shout ........

I salute the members who tipped these guys ....if nothing else you will have made a lot of money chasing these and dumping the others

and the Green USD ?........struggling along behind the others .....another casualty of Global events in Q4.........but only 3-4% off the leading pack - unlike the Disasterous Yen !

so here we go......heads down to xmas and thanks to all for playing !

N