Strongest G8 Currency in Q4 ? - COMPETITION !

[NVP]

Hey there T2W land !

heres a fun challenge to get us to Xmas ! :drunk:

Everyone is invited to play and the name of the game is calling the top gun currency for Q4 (1st October to end Dec 2012)

It will be judged using my FXCorrelator and can also be independently agreed (taking a lot longer though:whistling !) by looking at all the currency pairs to show the strongest Currency on 31/12/12

You can have up to 2 guesses gang if you want - or just the 1 if you are confident in your selection !

the Prize ?...........Respect .......

we have so many experts on T2W now it hurts ! .....so lets see who can REALLY call the shots and make money for people if they had been followed

If you want to say why please post freely - I dont care what you say .....but boy there could be some Lutz in january when we look back here !

so theres the challenge .........I want everyone on parade at T2W and lets have some fun ! arty:

in the next Post I will show you the runners and riders (jees I miss my horseracing days)

NVP

 

[NVP]

Right..........as you have probably noticed we are nearly 1 month into Q4 so It should be even EASIER to call the stongest Currency .....Right ?

OK - heres my FXcorrelator (Strengthmeter) indicator set on X-men instead of usual lines ...its a 1ma setting and shows the month of October with our runners and riders nicely coloured

as the days / weeks progress I will update it and you will see this same view of the X-men moving up and down based on if they get stronger or weaker

OK what do you see ?

Well the Euro is rocking ......it had a Good October (god knows why).....but will it run the full 3 furlong race ?...has it got the stamina and strength to hold off the challenges that will come ?

and at the bottom of the Pile is the Yen ......mainly due to BoJ intervening (is that cheating ?)........but everything goes in the Currency world folks ......looks like they will do anything to lose the Race .....

by the way if you like a little more info the Euro has taken a +3% move on the Yen this month so far ...and look at the X-men positions to gauge its lead on the others....CHF is in second ...no surprise there as the eternal shadow of the Euro these days !

so its EURO,CHF,AUD,USD,GBP,NZD,CAD,JPY into the first turn....

so now over to you - lets see what you've got as Currency Tipsters !

good luck and I will post my tips later this week :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

ok do you want a little more form guide ?

well in 2012 to date (10 months in).......heres the field....perhaps you are thinking the that Q4 will see major changes in the order of the race ?

perhaps you are right

GBP is the leader coming into Q4 .....been a good year as GBP ltd followed its austerity plans without major dissent from the masses, got out of Recession in the last month or so and we havnt really played to hard a QE game yet .....

but will it win the Sprint in Q4 ?....can it resurge for one last burst ?

You tell me comparders .....Newbies its your chance to join in the fun and challemge the Experts that will make their calls here as well.......c'mon show us what you can do !

REMEMBER WE ARE NOT BETTING ON THE WINNER OF 2012 ......WE ARE BETTING ON THE Q4 POSITIONS.THIS POST IS JUST ADVICE ON YTD POSITIONS :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

I bet the light blue NZD's 2nd position for the year to date fooled you all eh ?

perhaps it will continue to increase its speed and win the Q4 race ?

you tell me

 

[NVP]

I expect everyone at T2W posting on this thread and polling their results......no more 57 page commentaries, no more amnesia based losing Trades.....this is what its all about - show us all what youve got

I expert the "Experts" here to get a winner from their predictions given I am offering 2 currencies to bet on ......if you have 25% of the market in an 8 horse race and STILL cant call the winner thats not very good is it ?

this is not scalping - this is a reasonable challenge to everyone here at T2W to call the winning Currency in Q4 2012

the clock is ticking .......

N

 

[NVP]

Euro wont stay the pace ......its shot to pieces and will fold in the final furlong ......

wont it ?

 

[NVP]

Yen is the dark horse....it can eat up that 3% margin in a week if the BOJ leave it alone to freely move against the other G8 currencies and stop damnwell selling it .........and global Equities fold to assist its move up...(like the US not avoiding that fiscal Cliff in time)

hmmmmmmmm

 

[NVP]

Maybe USD will be the winner ?

What the Heck is needed in outurns re the

a) Election
b) The Fiscal Cliff issue

.......to send the USD into Q4 orbit ?

N

 

[NVP]

The GBP will walk it perhaps ?............its won the war in the first 10 months (see earlier post) and will take advantage of the US problems, the European issues coming in Q4 and BOJ's continued selling of its currency to reign supreme in this olympic glory year !

or not ?

 

[NVP]

what about the dynamic Aussie Duo ?

Sure Chinas not helping the situation and they have been struggling over GDP falling and the Property Bubble .....but what if Q4 is not as bad as predicted and all other majors start QE activity ....AUD and NZD have no intention of QE......and the Interest raets are by far the best on offer ......perhaps the worms will turn ?

N

 

[NVP]

CHF ?........we better ask the Euro about that one !!!

 

[NVP]

CAD ?..........i'll talk more about CAD next week......possibly one of my calls ....but I'm not showing my hand yet ...hahaha !

 

[NVP]

mornin all........well we are off the mark in this poll and thanks for that !

seriously its a bit of fun......so take a punt and place your bets !

I will be prompting some of our more resident "experts" to make some calls this week.....and we can hopefully have some good fun and discussions as it shapes up .....

I'm a bit pushed for time today but I have 2 currencies in mind for my dynamic duo......so more on that soon

some of the guys i'm asking are already saying they want to wait for the US Election results......

hey ...why not wait till December 30th ?....then you will really be sure of your call

N

 

[NVP]

The hell........bit unfair to tell everyone to vote and not have 1 of mine in the ring ....:smart:

Yens my tip......i'm banking on plenty of Q4 unrest in the Equities market and the Euro taking fire as well ...I figure that ordinarily the USD would thrive in these conditions but USA inc is in big trouble with the fiscal cliff and Lord knows the dynamics that will generate

the Market HATES uncertainty so people will go to where the safety is .....and thet will be the Yen

I also figure the BoJ will only be able to sell itself so far down the line ....then have to grin and bear it ...they cant beat all the currencies put together .and remember Forex is a Zero sum game so even if they try to buy the whole of the US debt they will still be overun by the other G6

N

c'mon place your bets everyone ! arty:

 

[NVP]

hey Moderators......dont be shy !

everyones invited to the game

N

 

[NVP]

so the big banks are calling the mighty Greenback ?

thats brave
N

(research thanks to Forest Gump)

From the table, it seems that most big banks think that the safe haven dollar will be the currency that will dominate Q4. For the European currencies, the dollar is expected to climb 0.008% versus the euro, 0.004% versus the pound, and 1.65% versus the franc.

Meanwhile, against the Japanese yen, the dollar is predicted to post a whopping 27.27% rise. The outlook for the major commodity-based currencies is also negative. All of them (the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar) are expected to fall lower from their current levels.

The forecasts are quite intriguing especially since the Fed is currently implementing an open-ended quantitative easing program. Moreover, the Fed has also indicated that they would probably keep rates at "exceptionally low" levels all the way until mid-2015. Normally, bond-buying activities of central banks and a loose monetary policy stance are considered bearish for the domestic currency.

Do the banks know something that we don't? Or do they think that the macroeconomic situation of other countries is worse than the U.S.? Or do they simply think that risk aversion will be the dominating market theme? Ah, these are questions that only they can answer.

Now, before I end this piece, let me just give out a few words of caution. One thing you should remember is that these forecasts are merely educated guesses, which means they will change as data changes.

In the forex market nothing is ever certain and even the most well-funded, smartest researchers in the world cannot accurately predict where price will be three months from now.

What this implies is that do not base your trades solely on the figures. Instead, use the forecasts as a guide to the big market players' sentiment to supplement to your own analysis.

That's it for today folks! Let's all hope for a good Q4 2012! Cheers!

 

[NVP]

thanks Cap...Aussie D eh ?............yep it could surprise us all

 

[NVP]

hey all

with no US Equity market why not take a bet here and leave your thoughts !

N

 

[NVP]

keep em coming all......you sure about that USD ?

i'm happy with Yen ...just moving up above cad now and in 7th place .....I've told him I dont need him in the top 3 until December

N

 

[NVP]

heres my gameplan......

this is the Weekly FXcorrelator...20ma default settings

Remember I am just talking here about my opinions and why I feel the Yen will be probably a buy
in Q4.....its not a trade call....

My Trades are made based on decisions made at that moment and with all dynamics and supporting evidence in place .....this is just fun !

I figure Q4 will be Generally a sub 13,000 experience for the Dow - and that means my USD and YEN team will rise up and hopefully win the Q4 race......

generally Yen has more pace and speed than USD so I am banking on that for it to beat its partner**...plus I figure USD will not be the 10000% safe haven we like until all the dust has cleared on the Election hangover and the Fiscal Cliff.....

now if that 13,000 resistance holds (Or the BOJ funpolice sell Yen) and I am proved wrong....then I'm eating humble pie for xmas dinner !

C'mon - please vote now....Cap's on board so looking for everyone to play !
N