tune
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Good question. I'll think about it.
Good question. I'll think about it.
dbphoenix
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If one has no expectation, why enter the trade?
So would I ,BUT that would be a different trade set up with a different expectation for me.
The first is a pure momentum play gratis a fake B/O where my first entry is my only entry as there will be no dip buying. The second setup would be a potential accumulation for a long pull so I wouldn't care if it moved against my entry as my technical stop would be further away for that set up anyway.It's a zone afterall with a fuzzy price bracket. The first setup is not a zone it's directional ,or nothing .Different setups ,different styles. Different expectations and plans.
AND by having a price expectation re price style I am not predicting anything. My expectation is my plan and if my plan is not working why would I wish to allow hope to reshape it ?
The first is a pure momentum play gratis a fake B/O where my first entry is my only entry as there will be no dip buying. The second setup would be a potential accumulation for a long pull so I wouldn't care if it moved against my entry as my technical stop would be further away for that set up anyway.It's a zone afterall with a fuzzy price bracket. The first setup is not a zone it's directional ,or nothing .Different setups ,different styles. Different expectations and plans.
AND by having a price expectation re price style I am not predicting anything. My expectation is my plan and if my plan is not working why would I wish to allow hope to reshape it ?
rathcoole_exile
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its nearly 2am here, i think i'll have to re-read this in the morning, try to get my head around it in the cool light of day, its a wee bit heavy ken ?
BSD
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Dang, here I was out already wishing you lot a nice weekend and now I'm back again.
Well OK, not for long.
Re Exiles not having any expectations...
I certainly never have any expectation whatsoever re the individual trade either.
The individual trade to me is fully, totally, and entirely irrelevant, may it end up as a loss, scratch, or profit, and I fully believe that it is absolutely impossible to predict which will end up as which.
The only expectation I have is versus my long term edge.
Trading really is just a numbers game to me.
That said, to allow my long term edge to flourish, I need winners that on average are multiple R's (winners many times larger than my losses that are one R), and the only way to get those is by giving a trade room to breathe, by going for the big moves, and by not trying to catch every upswing or exit on every downswing which I believe is impossible anyway, and that being the case it's pretty fruitless.
Forget the small swings, and go for the big moves.
Price for going after the big moves, is ignoring the small counterswings to your position.
If Kerviel pulls a fast one or a big player enters you may have your otherwise perfectly valid signal going down or sideways as per Chumps example, but as long as it doesn't touch off your stop loss there is a very good chance that, once the market has accumulated this new big order, price will go back to what it was doing before, go on up again, and you've got a winner.
Well OK, not for long.
Re Exiles not having any expectations...
I certainly never have any expectation whatsoever re the individual trade either.
The individual trade to me is fully, totally, and entirely irrelevant, may it end up as a loss, scratch, or profit, and I fully believe that it is absolutely impossible to predict which will end up as which.
The only expectation I have is versus my long term edge.
Trading really is just a numbers game to me.
That said, to allow my long term edge to flourish, I need winners that on average are multiple R's (winners many times larger than my losses that are one R), and the only way to get those is by giving a trade room to breathe, by going for the big moves, and by not trying to catch every upswing or exit on every downswing which I believe is impossible anyway, and that being the case it's pretty fruitless.
Forget the small swings, and go for the big moves.
Price for going after the big moves, is ignoring the small counterswings to your position.
If Kerviel pulls a fast one or a big player enters you may have your otherwise perfectly valid signal going down or sideways as per Chumps example, but as long as it doesn't touch off your stop loss there is a very good chance that, once the market has accumulated this new big order, price will go back to what it was doing before, go on up again, and you've got a winner.
BSD
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Don't overdo it with the three sisters OK ?
:cheesy:
rathcoole_exile
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if a price is trading in a channel and I set up a Stop Buy and/or a Stop Sell to go Long/Short at extremity+n then I have no expectation. I just wait to see a) if I get triggered. if not, mai pen rai.
and b) wait to see if trigger then turns a profit or backs into a Stop-loss. If it's a profit, mai pen rai. if it's a loss, mai pen rai.
Either way, I expect nothing, I just set my parameters and check later to see what, if anything, has happened while I've been away from the action..
dbphoenix
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If you have no expectation, how do you decide whether to go long or short? Or do you bracket every trade?
rathcoole_exile
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mate, the stories I could tell :cheesy:
Thinking about organising a "Traders Seminar" sometime later in the year.
Location: Bangkok
Delegates: BSD, FW99, Dinos, Options, ShadowNinja, Nick, Wasp etc etc, basically non-knobheads
Agenda: meet in bar, plan to talk about trading, get hammered instead,incriminating photos of BSD in a 3-some with 2 sisters
day 2 - repeat day 1
day 3 - etc etc
day 7 - inform BSD that the 2 sisters were originally 2 brothers :cheesy: :clap:
sound ok Markus ?
rathcoole_exile
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i flip a coin
dbphoenix
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BSD
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mate, the stories I could tell :cheesy:
Thinking about organising a "Traders Seminar" sometime later in the year.
Location: Bangkok
Delegates: BSD, FW99, Dinos, Options, ShadowNinja, Nick, Wasp etc etc, basically non-knobheads
Agenda: meet in bar, plan to talk about trading, get hammered instead,incriminating photos of BSD in a 3-some with 2 sisters
day 2 - repeat day 1
day 3 - etc etc
day 7 - inform BSD that the 2 sisters were originally 2 brothers :cheesy: :clap:
sound ok Markus ?
HAHA, I just totally laughing my head off reading that !!!
Scaring our cat, got to cover this up pronto, I'm in the bad books with my wife already as it is after Carnival LOL !
rathcoole_exile
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if consolidation occurs during a significant trend, then yes, i would 'expect' the breakout to resume the general direction of the trend.
but I would equally 'expect' to be made a fool of by the market and for it to move in the opposite direction
and i would 'expect' that i would have as much chance to be 100% correct on either expectation as of flying unaided, thus i just try, in my own humble way, to try to position myself to grab a little bit of meat in the sandwich, whatever the flavour
So while I may not necessarily physically "bracket" every trade, I try mentally to "expect" to have to
don't know if that makes sense? if not please forward complaints to Tiger Beer Ltd Thailand
but I would equally 'expect' to be made a fool of by the market and for it to move in the opposite direction
and i would 'expect' that i would have as much chance to be 100% correct on either expectation as of flying unaided, thus i just try, in my own humble way, to try to position myself to grab a little bit of meat in the sandwich, whatever the flavour
So while I may not necessarily physically "bracket" every trade, I try mentally to "expect" to have to
don't know if that makes sense? if not please forward complaints to Tiger Beer Ltd Thailand
BSD
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OK, that's definitely it from me now, Cheers, Prost, Kippis, Skol, Santé, Kampai, Tschok di (Is that right) and Nasdorowje !!!
rathcoole_exile
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darktone
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Cant be! i met her in Phuket! her name was Dave! :whistling
interesting thread! Amazing how different folks see things re exit and price action.
rathcoole_exile
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darktone
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yes DT, but you wanna be careful with your "Entries" with Dave
Haha.
have a gd we all.
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BSD
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Still got to meet her 2 sisters though to round things off
No problem with that at all if they look like her
Hey, I'd even share one of the sisters with DB
We may not see eye to eye on trading but otherwise he is a good guy
Now, about the sisters...
Johnny Be Good
The question is when you take a setup do you know why you are taking it and what this means in terms of the underlying activity that should support it going forward.
The mechanical trader probably does not care much about this. He's backtested and happy with expectancy so leaving his stop is just part of plan.Hence ,some of the quotes above. This is not a criticism ,simply an observation.
The discretionary trader is the opposite. He's aware of the why in terms of the what. Therefore ,if the what (price action) does not occur he's out regardless. This is also why he does not need to place a hard stop on entry. If you think about this ,this 'expectancy' has nothing to do with prediction ,it is in fact the ultimate trade what you see approach.
The trade either behaves right ,or it does not and in a sense this is his first stop. A hard stop or even a mental technical stop are really only backups to what he sees as correct price behaviour.
I don't think I can add anything further by way of explaining this viewpoint.
The mechanical trader probably does not care much about this. He's backtested and happy with expectancy so leaving his stop is just part of plan.Hence ,some of the quotes above. This is not a criticism ,simply an observation.
The discretionary trader is the opposite. He's aware of the why in terms of the what. Therefore ,if the what (price action) does not occur he's out regardless. This is also why he does not need to place a hard stop on entry. If you think about this ,this 'expectancy' has nothing to do with prediction ,it is in fact the ultimate trade what you see approach.
The trade either behaves right ,or it does not and in a sense this is his first stop. A hard stop or even a mental technical stop are really only backups to what he sees as correct price behaviour.
I don't think I can add anything further by way of explaining this viewpoint.
