Stock Market sell off coming late Aug. or in Sep.

[4xis2ez]

I trade what I see. The holiday season is ending and the market condition might change again.
One of the best advise that Mr Copan has released in his recordings, is to follow the market when the PA has and is confirming the scenario one has observed that statistically is likely to unfold in the following days/weeks. This applies to trading generally and is not solely specific to Delta approach, but yes his remarks are correct and apply to all TFs.
I avoid establishing large position/s in hope to catch the top/bottom reversal, forgoing the possible advantage of an early entry, instead I follow up with adding trades to the position/s in profit. By this I try to limit the risk, and I am happy with limited profits too.
When the proposed count on a higher TF does not happen or is delayed, it is ok and does not harm my account, I trade intra day PA.
August has had some large swings outside of US session, I usually do not put intraday trades outside of an open session.

Good weekend to all!
2be

Yes, I have the tendency to try and pick tops and bottoms. It may be best to take a 1/2 position in an attempt to pick a top/bottom, have a generous stop loss on that. If move is confirmed after a few days, trade the other 1/2 position then. I'm mostly looking at daily charts.

2be, I don't know what PA means.

 

[2be]

PA = Price Action
Market structure of HH/HL or the rverse in direction of a trend (for intra day - on a short TF or volume or tick candles)
HH = Higher High HL = Higher Low
I lalso take note of pivots with mid pivots on daily, and fib pivots on D and Wk

If I try to catch the rotation point, it is done with a very small position and a very large SL, on cofirmation I load the trade with large and multiple entires with a tight SL. The reverse idsadding to a losing position, and such experiences I remember well, assisted with the therpeutic pain!

 

[4xis2ez]

Here is part of my posting in a different forum.

Here is a screen shot of my longer term cycle.

Yes, I am predicting the future.

 

[2be]

That fibs are very interesting.
WHen there is a sign of distribution, it is certaily time to consider shorting.
Check the volume, it usually gives the useful insight as well.

 

[4xis2ez]

That fibs are very interesting.

I learned about the 88.6% fib from Copan. He said it was a very valuable fib level. Price may move to either the 76.4, or 88.6 and start heading down.

 

[2be]

yes fibs are very interesting, I also use fib pivots on D WK and Monthly
and ordinary pivots with retracements and extentions (drawn both ways for convinience), posted on other threads
itis all very interesting especially when it all comes together

 

[4xis2ez]

Here is SP500 cycle equivalent to MTD. It shows downward during much of September, so LTD, MTD, and ITD are lining up in the same direction.

 

[sunset1]

what does LTD, MTD AND ITD mean ?

 

[trendie]

what does LTD, MTD AND ITD mean ?

The Delta Phenomenon is a fascinating story.
There is a belief that markets turn, or swing in certain cycles.
There are cycles or turning points within other cycles.
At the bottom pf the page I link below, there are the chapter headings, which describe the acronyms.
((LTD: Long Term Delta; MTD: Medium Term Delta, etc)

Enjoy!!

The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in All Markets | Delta Society

www.deltasociety.com

PS: Oh balls!!
1: Each market can have its own Delta cycles; the turning points arent all the same.
2: The core principle, if I recall, is that the main cycle revolved around 4 lunar months.
3: A guy called Steve Copan either evolved it (or plagiarised (not getting into that one!)) further by adding Elliot Waves and Fibs.
(so be careful about original Delta Phenomenon (Wilder) and anything else)

 

[sunset1]

The Delta Phenomenon is a fascinating story.
There is a belief that markets turn, or swing in certain cycles.
There are cycles or turning points within other cycles.
At the bottom pf the page I link below, there are the chapter headings, which describe the acronyms.
((LTD: Long Term Delta; MTD: Medium Term Delta, etc)

Enjoy!!

The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in All Markets | Delta Society

www.deltasociety.com

PS: Oh balls!!
1: Each market can have its own Delta cycles; the turning points arent all the same.
2: The core principle, if I recall, is that the main cycle revolved around 4 lunar months.
3: A guy called Steve Copan either evolved it (or plagiarised (not getting into that one!)) further by adding Elliot Waves and Fibs.
(so be careful about original Delta Phenomenon (Wilder) and anything else)

trendie are you describing delta as not very reliable ?

 

[sunset1]

4xis2ez what is your reasoning for oil being so far out of your analysis ?

 

[jeffre5]

which aug or sept

 

[4xis2ez]

The Delta Phenomenon is a fascinating story.
There is a belief that markets turn, or swing in certain cycles.
There are cycles or turning points within other cycles.
At the bottom pf the page I link below, there are the chapter headings, which describe the acronyms.
((LTD: Long Term Delta; MTD: Medium Term Delta, etc)

Enjoy!!

The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in All Markets | Delta Society

www.deltasociety.com

PS: Oh balls!!
1: Each market can have its own Delta cycles; the turning points arent all the same.
2: The core principle, if I recall, is that the main cycle revolved around 4 lunar months.
3: A guy called Steve Copan either evolved it (or plagiarised (not getting into that one!)) further by adding Elliot Waves and Fibs.
(so be careful about original Delta Phenomenon (Wilder) and anything else)

I bought the Delta book and found out the flaws in Slomans method. There are no inversions in Delta when you use the correct time frames. What I have posted here is not the way Sloman did it. This is my discovery and is not owned by the Delta Society.

 

[4xis2ez]

which aug or sept

You're free to post your analysis.

 

[Pat494]

Not much sign of the sell off yet ?

 

[4xis2ez]

Not much sign of the sell off yet ?

Not yet. I'll keep an eye on it, and if it continues higher, then I'll scrap the trade.

 

[2be]

When considering trading cycle patterns, only when there is a solid confirmation on Daily TF it is possible for me to enter the trade, cycle rotation has to be confirmed and the SL is paramount.

The monetary policy is making it more difficult to observe patterns which long ago were driven by mass appetite for risk, and currently the large invested parties make the cycles much more difficult to apply to trading (IMHO).
Markets are in constant change, I wander how this ongoing process applays to cycle theory.

ATM I trade intra day and using shorter TFs, still looking on D and Wk TFs.

 

[4xis2ez]

Not much sign of the sell off yet ?

My outlook for the next 8 or 10 weeks. Could see new lows in November.

 

[2be]

My outlook for the next 8 or 10 weeks. Could see new lows in November.View attachment 268008

very possible scenario
there are some gaps to be filled in to the upside, than October November down move
we are seeing dead cut bounce IMHO
over all market is still bullish, and it possibly will be for some long time

 

[he-man]

My outlook for the next 8 or 10 weeks. Could see new lows in November.

I have a high due on 15 Oct. Maybe we're in sync.