Spreadbetting Update

[Carnivore]

Ianp,

on any given single market it varies but is seldom more than 5%. Across a broad range of markets it was quite a bit higher but not more than 20% in the markets that I looked at. I have had to test manually but it reaffirmed my initial thoughts that the information supplied makes sense and more importantly makes profits!

 

[ianp]

Thanks Carnivore,,

keep us updated..


Ian

 

[JonnyT]

The system uses Elders risk of no more than 2% of equity per trade.

Therefor if the system does indeed work well the drawdowns per market will be low.

I should state that this like any EOD system designed to capture large trends does need some serious cash to do it properly.

Buy the course, it's well worth it IMHO.

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

Carnivore,

How is your daytrading going and are you finding it a profitable venture ?


Paul

 

[darrenf]

Carnivor (plus JonnyT and Trader333 as you also seem to have purchased the spread trading secrets book).

I am considering buying this myself as it would appear to offer a complete strategy to longer term trading which is what I am after. Or at least, a very solid starting point from which to develop my own personal system over time.

However, I bought the Vince Stanzione workbook a year or so ago which seemed to promise the same thing, had a very similar sales pitch (almost uncannily), cost much more and was dissapointing.

From what I have read, this seems to offer specific methods for a complete strategy. ie exit/entry/stop loss and majoring on money management. Can you confirm if this is the case and if you would recommend it.

If so, I'll let the moths out of my wallet and buy it!

Cheers

 

[JonnyT]

Some Backtesting

Hi folks,

Here are the trades carried out by the system on the Dow since 1998.

The results are not as good as I hoped.

Short 01/09/1998 -355.454239
Short 15/01/1998 -112.0784768
Long 02/02/1998 726.85794
Short 06/04/1998 -148.5590368
Short 06/11/1998 -199.7096252
Long 07/08/1998 -155.2031398
Short 08/03/1998 1034.660294
Short 09/09/1998 -428.4328007
Long 16/10/1998 4061.212009
Short 22/09/1999 -36.75143425
Long 11/12/1999 142.51446
Short 25/01/2000 -185.1665208
Long 23/03/2000 -398.4150397
Short 05/10/2000 -344.1697677
Short 23/05/2000 -301.6649438
Short 16/06/2000 -306.312035
Long 08/04/2000 -39.1438475
Short 26/09/2000 -342.9601697
Long 12/05/2000 -325.8368458
Short 20/12/2000 -411.5533731
Long 28/12/2000 -393.6040643
Short 28/02/2001 -405.9999966
Short 03/12/2001 -224.4751247
Short 28/03/2001 -435.0208122
Long 18/04/2001 -99.3008565
Short 27/06/2001 2980.536725
Short 10/01/2001 -332.5978389
Long 11/06/2001 -620.8864007
Short 30/01/2002 -248.6689613
Long 26/02/2002 -23.313618
Short 22/04/2002 -207.8421658
Short 29/05/2002 3338.869443
Short 25/07/2002 -379.4692993
Short 08/05/2002 -366.5108032
Short 18/09/2002 -160.935149
Long 11/01/2002 -188.7386163
Short 30/12/2002 -205.4562225
Long 01/06/2003 -211.7636716
Short 22/01/2003 137.5749892
Long 18/03/2003 -158.8629837
Long 04/02/2003 1335.603529 Ongoing

Total 5358.425747

This doesn't allow for commissions/spreads slippage.

It shows the system is profitable (not as much as I would like!)but could you trade it? You would need £30000 equity per pound per point following the rules of 2% max loss per trade.

However it is designed to be used over a basket of futures and might have better performance elsewhere.

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

JonnyT,

In my view it was not designed for index futures trading but more along the lines of commodities and currencies which are known to trend better.


Paul

 

[JonnyT]

Anyone got any continuous contract data and I'll run it through my backtest engine?

I thought indices trend pretty damned well...

JonnyT

 

[JonnyT]

Tested Cotton LC`Q contract. No winning trades...

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

JonnyT,

Can you use *.omz data to do backtesting ?

Cheers


Paul

 

[JonnyT]

Hi Paul,

Anything in CSV format or else can be imported into excel and manipulated.

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

Hi JonnyT,

Unfortunately *.omz is TS2000 specific but can be imported into some trading packages but not directly into Excel Sorry.

Paul

 

[Carnivore]

JohnnyT,

from what I understand the STS method uses pyramiding to really make money from trend following. How do you incorporate the dynamic pyramiding and stop loss nature into the backtesting system?
Without that being accurate the testing results won't give a true and accurate picture.

 

[JonnyT]

Hi Carnivore,

I have incorporated the dynamic pyramiding and stop loss as per the book into my backtesting. The system is easy peasy to code in VBA. For instance the basic performance of the system was only around 500 points using the intial entry and exit criteria. This multiplied by a factor of 10 by incorporating the Pyramiding...

The results are accurate for the Dow. In fact they are overstated as they do not allow for commission, slippage etc.

I personally will not trade this system as I have much better ones for EOD trading.

JonnyT

 

[PitBull]

STS Setup

This is my first post on T2W so forgive me for my ignorance.

Carnivore

I have also purchased the STS workbook and am wondering what kind of setup I need to trade EOD. In other words, what chart package do you use and for what markets. I have looked at the various sites posted on T2W, like ADVFN, BigCharts, Yahoo, StockCharts and I have signed up to FREE demos of Sharescope, Spacejock, esignal, myTrack, but I want one that is user friendly, costs nothing and caters for the main indicators. Would I need to use different chart packages for different markets?

Personally I have been using Yahoo for its ease and coverage for EOD data.

Any ideas welcome, as I am new to this game and only want to trade part time for a bit of extra cash?

Also, Im looking at the various SB platforms. I want to start with minimum capital, so I can see whether I am any good. Is Finspreads the best for this, even though their spreads are larger than other SB's.

Cheers

p.s. this stuff makes fascinating reading, Im hooked :!:

 

[Carnivore]

data provider

Hi Pitbull,

I checked out a lot of systems too and ended up with the analyzerxl package suggested with the spreadtradingsecrets book.

There is a link somewhere in the email report you receive. It takes some getting used to but provides eod data for free across many markets including international shares, futures, currencies and commodities.

It only takes a few moments per day to get sorted and I can download all the data I need at the push of a button.

Hope this is of help.

 

[PitBull]

Thanks Carnivore.

Unfortunately, Cory has said the website is down and wont be up for another month. Can you access the site? Is there anywhere else I can get the data?

Regards

 

[bertie]

SPREAD TRADING SECRETS

i went to the spread trading secrets website and after a couple of minutes had a feeling of deja-vu......i'd read all this before....then i dug out one of vince stanzione's flyers promoting his spread trading course.......the wording is almost exactly the same.....who's copied who?.....there is absolutely no way it can be a coincidence.....theres more chance of WMD being found in iraq!!

anybody else noticed the remarkable similarities?

 

[PitBull]

Hi Bertie

Check this link as this question was raised before and the guy who wrote the book, posts on here as "aussietrader".

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5776

 

[dpfuller]

Hi all

I'm new to this site but after having alook at the various threads am totally hooked.

The STS system looks interesting and it's always good to hear from people who are actually using it. I currently work full time so only have limited trading time and so am ideally looking for a system I can trade on EOD data.

Can anyone recommend other EOD trading systems free or otherwise that they're using successfully?

thanks all