Spread Betting the Wall Street Rolling Daily

[mobanded]

I think this is something that you're not understanding. You had a loss of 1800. Whether you closed it at that level or not is irrelevant. You had a loss of 1800. You kept in the trade, and then price then went from almost blowing your account to breakeven. So you got breakeven out of that. By the way it wasn't a 'potential' loss of 1800, it was a potential blown account, for the potential profit of 0.

Now read again your last paragraph. You didn't trade that move that you successfuly called. You want some credit for that? Why? You didnt' trade it? In fact your system said not to trade it, yet the system deserves some credit? A move that could have been worth 1800 or so. Why not? Because you were married to a bad trade. Had you used a stop, you could have lost an amount much less than 1800 that day, and come back today and made 1800 and be well in profit for the 2 days. Instead you were breakeven, with a risk of blowing your account and a lot of stress as well.

There are two risks in not using a stop
1) You can blow your account.
2) Because you're in a trade and your capital is tied up, you miss a much better trade, for the sake of one that is already a loser.

Hi Shakone

I clearly understand the risks I am taking when using my system to sb the Dow.

The £1800/180 pip loss was nothing more than a paper loss – until such time as the trade was closed it would remain a paper loss. I kept in the trade because my system dictated that I should. What is wrong with that? Despite what the accepted norm in SB trading is, I do not, for better or worse, trade like the majority.

With regard to your comment “it was a potential blown account” - my account wouldn't have been blown; even if the worst possible scenario (a loss of £2000/200 pips) evolved. At that hypothetical point in time I would still have had my initial £2000 plus a reduced profit of £30. However, I accept the point you are making about a blown account BUT the loss of £2000/200 pips, is part of the risk I accept on every trade I make. I have made that clear from the beginning of this thread and, although it may not be the accepted normal thing to do, it is my thing and it is a profit making thing.

Further, I do not accept your statement “By the way it wasn't a 'potential' loss of 1800, it was a potential blown account, for the potential profit of 0.” The actual loss, in any of my system trades, and if triggered, would be £2000; the actual profit could be unlimited on the long side and £100k or so on the short side. (Dow is at about 10000 and if it crashed to zero, a £10 short would return £100k).

With regard to your second paragraph – the only reason I did not trade the short was because I was already trading it via the open trade I carried forward from the previous trading day. You are clearly wrong when you say my system said NOT to trade it – my system only ever indicates the direction of the Dow, it never takes the negative view, unless by omission.

I could go on and refute most of the points you are making but perhaps we can agree to disagree on our individual approaches to trading, and put this to sleep.

Final point - my system, after six trading days is showing a profit of £2000/200 pips. I have, therefore, despite all the risks involved, doubled my money. I did the same during the ten trading days prior to starting this thread. How many 'stop loss
establishment type traders' do you know that can claim the same, and be prepared to put their system up for scrutiny on this type of forum thread?

Mobanded

 

[Shakone]

What is the difference between a real loss, and a paper loss? Suppose someone takes the opposite trade to you, opposite direction, same size. When the trade is 180 points against you, they take the 1800 profit. That goes into their account, essentially they've taken your money, even though you haven't closed. From that point on you're still trading £10 per point, against someone else now. The only way you can get back to breakeven, is if price moves 180 points in your direction, that's your paper loss. Or you could lose 180 points in a trade and close for a real loss, then enter another trade and if it goes 180 points in your direction you'll take profit. The only difference between this and the paper loss, is that you'd have to pay the spread one more time. So a paper loss is very real, whether you've closed the trade or not. The only difference being, having to pay the spread again. Then again, depending on rollover, you may have had to pay that anyway.

I kept in the trade because my system dictated that I should.

You are clearly wrong when you say my system said NOT to trade it – my system only ever indicates the direction of the Dow

You can't have it both ways. Either your system indicates you stay in that losing trade and don't trade another position or it doesn't. If it indicates you stay in that losing trade, then it has told you not to take that new trade - which is exactly what I said, and you argued.

The actual loss, in any of my system trades, and if triggered, would be £2000; the actual profit could be unlimited on the long side and £100k or so on the short side. (Dow is at about 10000 and if it crashed to zero, a £10 short would return £100k).

The actual profit is limited by when you decide to close the trade. You decided to close the trade at 0 profit (if I read correctly). All of your profits have been far smaller than your stop loss, so lets not pretend you would have held it for 10000 points. Someone who takes profit on a long position at 10 points or pips, does not say the profit was unlimited on that position, and so reward was infinite times the amount of risk. Come on.

Final point - my system, after six trading days is showing a profit of £2000/200 pips. I have, therefore, despite all the risks involved, doubled my money. I did the same during the ten trading days prior to starting this thread. How many 'stop loss
establishment type traders' do you know that can claim the same

Yes that was good luck. A lot of traders could do the same. They'd just max their bet size (keep some extra cash for margin), with fixed stop and target, one trade, works and doubles money or blows out the account. 50% of them could probably do that, if you think about it. And as I pointed out, if you had taken the initial loss, and took your setup from Monday, and took profit where you closed, you would have made 1800 pounds (almost doubling your money) on that one trade alone. With a lot less risk.

I'm trying to help before you do lose a big amount, since I've been down that road before, but I guess you are right, and we just can agree to disagree on the best appraoch.

 

[Shakone]

For what it is worth I do see the value in your approach. If you go to the casino you could gamble all on red or black and double your money or lose it all, except that the odds are against you. With trading, if you can read the markets, you can make those odds a bit better. And in that respect it can be profitable to do what you're doing, as long as you're not risking your entire account and the profits you make (which you're not).

 

[mobanded]

What is the difference between a real loss, and a paper loss? Suppose someone takes the opposite trade to you, opposite direction, same size. When the trade is 180 points against you, they take the 1800 profit. That goes into their account, essentially they've taken your money, even though you haven't closed. From that point on you're still trading £10 per point, against someone else now. The only way you can get back to breakeven, is if price moves 180 points in your direction, that's your paper loss. Or you could lose 180 points in a trade and close for a real loss, then enter another trade and if it goes 180 points in your direction you'll take profit. The only difference between this and the paper loss, is that you'd have to pay the spread one more time. So a paper loss is very real, whether you've closed the trade or not. The only difference being, having to pay the spread again. Then again, depending on rollover, you may have had to pay that anyway.



You can't have it both ways. Either your system indicates you stay in that losing trade and don't trade another position or it doesn't. If it indicates you stay in that losing trade, then it has told you not to take that new trade - which is exactly what I said, and you argued.


The actual profit is limited by when you decide to close the trade. You decided to close the trade at 0 profit (if I read correctly). All of your profits have been far smaller than your stop loss, so lets not pretend you would have held it for 10000 points. Someone who takes profit on a long position at 10 points or pips, does not say the profit was unlimited on that position, and so reward was infinite times the amount of risk. Come on.


Yes that was good luck. A lot of traders could do the same. They'd just max their bet size (keep some extra cash for margin), with fixed stop and target, one trade, works and doubles money or blows out the account. 50% of them could probably do that, if you think about it. And as I pointed out, if you had taken the initial loss, and took your setup from Monday, and took profit where you closed, you would have made 1800 pounds (almost doubling your money) on that one trade alone. With a lot less risk.

I'm trying to help before you do lose a big amount, since I've been down that road before, but I guess you are right, and we just can agree to disagree on the best appraoch.

Hi Shakone

I do appreciate constructive criticism and while I may seem to ignore or argue against some points I really do try to evaluate everything put to me. I accept what you put to me, in a positive way, and thanks for trying to show me the error of my/your (previous) ways.

I agree for the present, we can agree to disagree. I realise in my ideal trading world, my need for an effective stop loss is necessary and I am trying to find a system I can live with.

Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

For what it is worth I do see the value in your approach. If you go to the casino you could gamble all on red or black and double your money or lose it all, except that the odds are against you. With trading, if you can read the markets, you can make those odds a bit better. And in that respect it can be profitable to do what you're doing, as long as you're not risking your entire account and the profits you make (which you're not).

Thanks
Mobanded

 

[Ross Spur]

A few posts earlier you suggested I should close at a loss of 40 points and now, my logic escapes you when I get out at breakeven.

If you want reasons here they are - when the Dow hit moreorless my breakeven point, it allowed me to keep to my system rules of never closing a losing trade. Also it was close to the start of the last mad half hour of the trading day when anything could happen, and finally and most importantly I needed some beauty sleep.

Tomorrow is another start fresh day but I think today can be described as fruitful considering I fully recovered from an £1800 potential loss.

What about some credit for my system forecasting the direction of the Dow at 9.00 a.m. - Short at 10171 - the Dow closed below 1000 - nice profit for anyone who traded it.

Mobanded

Shakone seems to have covered most of it, but my reason for saying you should have closed at -40-ish was because I thought the Dow was in a potential bounce area. I was wrong and the downtrend continued, yet you still got out ASAP just because of your bizarre 'never close a loser' rule. Wouldn't it have been better to set a stop and limit a reasonable distance away, then had a night's sleep?

FWIW, I don't see that your system forecasting has been any better than random. You've made a profit because the Dow has stayed in a fairly narrow channel.

None of this is meant to be insulting, btw. As I said before, I've tried similar systems and quite often had extremely good results for weeks, but they've all fallen apart sooner or later.

 

[barjon]

.............What about some credit for my system forecasting the direction of the Dow at 9.00 a.m. - Short at 10171 - the Dow closed below 1000 - nice profit for anyone who traded it...............

Mobanded

Mornin' Mo,

Can't knock the fact that you've survived by the skin of your teeth, but as Shaky and Ross have said, the price you paid for your near death experience was zero profit and missing out on your indicator's Monday trade worth around £1700.

Also can't knock the fact that you have doubled your account in six days, albeit that your near death escapes have owed more to luck than judgement. I wonder how it would have fared at various levels of stop-loss? Or, if your indicator is dynamic (you say you can call on it at any time), taking your loss when it changed it's mind (I'd be surprised if it can go 180 points offside without a shudder).

cheers

jon

 

[mobanded]

Day 8 and profit is 200 pips

Forecast for Dow today is to go Long.

At 9.30 it is trading at 9965

Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

Shakone seems to have covered most of it, but my reason for saying you should have closed at -40-ish was because I thought the Dow was in a potential bounce area. I was wrong and the downtrend continued, yet you still got out ASAP just because of your bizarre 'never close a loser' rule. Wouldn't it have been better to set a stop and limit a reasonable distance away, then had a night's sleep?

FWIW, I don't see that your system forecasting has been any better than random. You've made a profit because the Dow has stayed in a fairly narrow channel.

None of this is meant to be insulting, btw. As I said before, I've tried similar systems and quite often had extremely good results for weeks, but they've all fallen apart sooner or later.

Points taken Thanks.
Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

Mornin' Mo,

Can't knock the fact that you've survived by the skin of your teeth, but as Shaky and Ross have said, the price you paid for your near death experience was zero profit and missing out on your indicator's Monday trade worth around £1700.

Also can't knock the fact that you have doubled your account in six days, albeit that your near death escapes have owed more to luck than judgement. I wonder how it would have fared at various levels of stop-loss? Or, if your indicator is dynamic (you say you can call on it at any time), taking your loss when it changed it's mind (I'd be surprised if it can go 180 points offside without a shudder).

cheers

jon

Hi jon

Thanks for your views.

Mobanded

 

[anley]

Statistics do very little for me, at the end of the day whether or not I have made a profit is my main criteria.

So a good bet for you would be to make a £100 profit while risking £1000 when the true odds of the trade working are 5:1.

And a bad bet for you would be to lose £100 while risking £25 when the true odds of the trade working were evens.

I mean, if it's all about the money..........

PS. In an earlier post you said you were going to reveal who you were in the future. let me guess you're Coco the (financial) Clown

Like I said before don't take any of this personally - we're only being cruel to be kind in order to stop you losing all your cash.

 

[anley]

it allowed me to keep to my system rules of never closing a losing trade.

As a rule of thumb it costs the spread betters about £500 in marketing costs to get a new clients.

But word on the street Mo is they're all willing to pay up to £4,000 to get your business

---------------------------
Sorry, but your comment about of never closing a losing trade makes you either a great wind up merchant (yes, you got me, well done) or probably one of the most stupid people to ever spread bet. I'm sure you're not but whatever the case you do a great impression of a retard (remember - don't take it personally, we're only trying to help you not lose it all).

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

200 points / 8 days with no losses in the ranges we are experiencing is nothing special.

You dont want to take a loss, but you take the first sign of profit when it presents itself.

If you forecasted the fall yesterday; how much did you actually get from the move?

100, 50 points?

I only hope you dont try to go long one particular day in the next 2 months, because this will be the day that the little Dow will NOT come back and you will either have to take a big hit or a massive hit. But the storm is coming

Traders who have done their time, will know what the eventual outcome will be.

This is just a re-incarnation of whats gone before.

 

[mobanded]

So a good bet for you would be to make a £100 profit while risking £1000 when the true odds of the trade working are 5:1.

And a bad bet for you would be to lose £100 while risking £25 when the true odds of the trade working were evens.

I mean, if it's all about the money..........

PS. In an earlier post you said you were going to reveal who you were in the future. let me guess you're Coco the (financial) Clown

Like I said before don't take any of this personally - we're only being cruel to be kind in order to stop you losing all your cash.

You have just convinced me that I have had enough of sarcasm and insults and p*ss taking, (constructive criticism, Yes; downright rudeness - No). And don't give me the coverall crap excuse that I shouldn't take it personally.

From hereonin this thread is dead as far as I am concerned and those of you who will be quick off the mark to respond with couldn't hack it, no balls, etc. etc. can say what you wish. I will not respond to any further messages.

For those of you who have been constructive - deepfelt thanks.


Mobanded

 

[Ross Spur]

You have just convinced me that I have had enough of sarcasm and insults and p*ss taking, (constructive criticism, Yes; downright rudeness - No). And don't give me the coverall crap excuse that I shouldn't take it personally.

From hereonin this thread is dead as far as I am concerned and those of you who will be quick off the mark to respond with couldn't hack it, no balls, etc. etc. can say what you wish. I will not respond to any further messages.

For those of you who have been constructive - deepfelt thanks.


Mobanded

That's a shame, because this thread has probably been more useful than most. If you're sure your system will work and are happy with the result, Mo, why get upset by the negative comments, which really aren't meant to be be personal?

 

[anley]

Mo - sorry but you invited the comments from me and others because you're trading like an idiot who's about to lose all their cash (deposited within your account).

Like I said we're only trying to help you NOT lose all your money but you're so determined to do so there's little we can do..........

Still, there is a positive to all of this - it's not as if your money will be lost in a black hole as it's going to be an excellent real life example of Darwin's rule (in the financial markets), ie your money will be transferred from a weak gambler who disrespects risk to a strong speculator who RESPECTS risk

 

[zoesdad]

I think you are a very lucky boy.

Do you own one of these :clover: and could you pick my lottery numbers

 

[Ross Spur]

PS. In an earlier post you said you were going to reveal who you were in the future. let me guess you're Coco the (financial) Clown .

My sources tell me that Mobanded was the real Stig.

 

[leonarda]

I hope you're still holding that 9965 long from 31stAug?, but somehow I expect you got out for a nice small profit if history repeats itself...? I guess we'll never know.

I'm afraid Mo you do seem to do the exact opposite of what every good Trading book says to cut losses and run winners. So it must mean you've never read any? or just ignored what they say?

All the best.

 

[anley]

Just imagine if he's short from the beginning of last week.

Then imagine we won't see that level again for the next 6 years.

So he'll hold the short for the full 6 years because he doesn't believe in EVER taking a loss (only fools and losers use stops).

Funny if he then comes back here after 2,190 days to tell us the trade made a 76 point profit