Spotting the Obvious

It seems the problem alludes to what is, and what isn’t relevant; knowing what is/isn’t relevant, seeing what is/isn’t relevant (and at this time of night (morning), this is one can of worms).

On a very basic level, there will not be a consensus. So we could ask, Why not? Perhaps because the markets appear, to a greater or lessor extent (and this will be disputed), random and unpredictable. So we try to impose our own order – we “tend to focus on evidence that supports [our] market view” (Zup). And because we have various degrees of strength and weakness, perhaps we utilise what we can – our strengths, strengths which may be inappropriate. So if Timsk is ‘visual’, his strength or advantage could be in seeing patterns (in charts). Personally, despite being an ‘arts’ person, I prefer numbers (albeit not on a high level) to the visual. My interest is not what something is, but what it isn’t. For example, at the moment I’m working on a system for scalping futures. I’m not looking at price levels, support or resistance (too variable), or distributions, but the opposite – where prices rarely go (and I don’t mean five sigmas), in other words, limits. I digress.

“people who see the gorilla have greater problem solving / reasoning skills” (Jackoclubs). In my experience (with retail clients) I have found no correlation between success in business, academic achievement, or any other quantifiable measure. Those with an average education in mundane occupations are no less successful in investing/trading than their so-called superiors. So what is relevant; and can it be acquired and developed?

Grant.
 
zupcon said:
Thanks for the reply, this is exactly the sort of debate I hoped this might spark so thank you. Questions that immediately came to my mind where are as follows:

Why do only a few spot the gorilla ? and is this a strength or a weakness. You might argue (as you did) that failing to spot the Gorilla shows a certain ability to concentrate on the task at hand, and the ability to filter out extraneous noise, and these are clearly strengths. On the other hand it does show how easily we can be distracted, and how we are in danger of missing the bigger picture.

You say its irrelevant in the context of trading. Im not sure Id agree entirely, on a purely visual basis think about system design, and how easily certain patterns tend to lure our attention away from the bigger picture and less obvious. I often noticed that when looking at charts people tend to focus on evidence that supports their market view, whilst remaining blind to the opposite view. How many times have we taken trades which appear crazy when analysed in retrospect, yet we failed to see the obvious at the time.

Im sure everyone has their own interpretations, Im undecided as yet, but If this is a weakness how do we overcome it, or if its a strength how do we capitalise upon it.

again thanks for the response

regards
zu

Yes Zu,

Now, please note I am not wanting to close this thread, or any thread for that matter :LOL:

But, if your take time to read what Socrates' posts, you will see many little Gems in between all the words.

This is why, back some months ago, I came out and clearly stated:

"Socrates, I like your posts"

And the rest is History.

I will continue the Expectancy discussion at a later date, as I have a plan to show you ALL how Expectancy really works, and I might even do it with Option trades, for my trading focus may be due for a Major shift shortly, thanks to you know who ;)

Good thread this, I will give you that.

Regards,
 
zupcon said:
Why do only a few spot the gorilla ? and is this a strength or a weakness. [...] Im sure everyone has their own interpretations, Im undecided as yet, but If this is a weakness how do we overcome it, or if its a strength how do we capitalise upon it.

My answer to that is: Experience! I have seen a video similar to this once before. Anticipating it would be the same type of trick I was counting the passes and watching for something in the background at the same time. I spotted the Gorilla without a problem. That's maybe why experienced traders can 'see' something obvious in Charts/Market Behaviour that is invisible to the inexperienced.
 
Zu,

What is happening - has the little down draught frightened away the investors. :LOL:

It has been some of the best 2 weeks in trading for a long time now.

And what is more, it looks like there are some more good ones on the way.

Slainte,
 
Zu,

If you wan't I will pick up where you left off and continue this good thread - what do you think?

Regards,
 
couldnt be bothered to read all that garbage,,,,,,so was it 12,13,14,15?..................awaiting your reply
 
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