NotQuiteRandom
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Great info, thank you. Another question if I may, do you understand why your nets work? I don't mean in terms of the parameters that you use but in terms of the models that drive the functions. Can you give some additional insight into the technicalities and the maths?
I am not an expert in nets by any means but I have observed examples where such a model has been shown to work for a period of time but the operator was unable to explain fully why.
Thank you for your patient answering of my questions. This is very interesting information.
NQR
I am not an expert in nets by any means but I have observed examples where such a model has been shown to work for a period of time but the operator was unable to explain fully why.
Thank you for your patient answering of my questions. This is very interesting information.
NQR
Data Miner said:Hello NQR,
In answer to you question, yes, entirely and completely.
If ever I try to add in my own expertise(?) and knowledge(?) returns are far less reliable. The temptation for going against the neural predictions is never far away ... and I do admit to occasionally falling foul of my own golden rule which is;
"DM, the stats understand the situation far better than you do, so don't meddle!"
Tonight for instance, my nets tell me to oppose both Man Utd and Arsenal on the spreads currently quoted. My head tells me that it must surely be a dangerous ploy going against Man Utd especially in their current mood ... But hey! what do I know ... bets have now been duly placed.
A couple of good recent examples; Last month my football trades were going through a torrid time and a midweek-weekend-midweek patch saw me lose 600 points. I examined the "evidence" and decided that the tail-end of the season was not representative, and I should stop my football trading for the season. Maybe the cowards way is not to check-out "what would have been" after that decision, but why bury your head in the sand? The following weekend-midweek-weekend trading would have recouped all of the 600 points, and made profit on top, had I not invented reasons to curtail my trading in this area. Bugger! Football trading has been resumed
Example two: On Saturday (15 April) my NNets suggested a sell of both distances and SPs at Kelso. However, the racecard included a two-runner, three-mile steeplechase ... cue for my head to takes over the situation ...
Common sense (?) tells me to leave this well alone - too risky.
The outcome almost goes without saying? The distance spread would have returned a 296+ profit and the SP a 48+ profit. Double bugger!
I suppose my expertise & knowledge (this time without the question marks) is in the area of making best use of neural networks, which is by no means a straightforward business. But I've been using them in this area for over 10 years now, and you would have though by now I'd be able to stick to my own rules.
I'm still working on it. In a darkened room I'm repeating to myself over and over
"DM, the stats understand the situation far better than you do, so don't meddle!"
DM