Skill Leverage
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Ask the barman if they serve Chateau Ricin, I think you'd enjoy it
This is just getting silly now, it IS RANDOM !
This is what you need to do, take 100 trades each and every day across a variety of timeframes and instruments for the next year, NO stop loss and NO targets. Leave em to run for 50, or a 100, or 200 bars in your chosen timeframe, then close em.
After youve collected a few hundred for each timeframe, determine the win / lose rate then come back and tell me it aint 50% (+/- an element of noise which will be a function of the square root of the number of trades in the sample)
The moment you start timing entries, or closing trades due to a stop are target is the time the probability deviates from 0.5. (The probability of course is a bit irrelevant) but in the absense of fiddling about, over a sufficient sample size the probability of an up or down move from a random entry in any selected timeframe is 50/50, and 5 minutes backtesting will confirm that... spending a couple of years actually watching price move in real time will confirm the same, albeit far more educational and useful
Exactly. It's very, very complex. So complex you think it's random. What you're forgetting is that you're just basing things on results and not what creates the numbers.
I dont think its random at all, its very far from random, but even if it where random, the kurtosis in the distribution probably still provides a tradable edge simply by cutting short the largest losing trades.
The issue that you cannot escape is that randomly selected trades, left to run unmanaged will result in a distribution of gains and losses centered around 0.
HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
i know this has nothing to do with what you are talking about but i have an first round interview with futex this week, after passing the tests. Does anyone know anything about the questions or structure of the 30 mins?
thanks in advance
i posted here because this seems to be the most popular futex post
Futex are well aware of who he is and his track record I should have thought... but I would still think he's potentially worth a punt, you'd need to see how he would cope under good risk management.
any1 have any real advice about the futex interview?
I reckon spanish in his naivety didn't realised you have to pay for the desk. He has no trading capital because of his upcoming operation he needs to pay for - how will he manage that then?
he's about as emotionally stable as a a 15 year old girl at a Justin Timberlake concert.