Soybeans/Meal

Moneycat said:
How do you rate reliability of such trade recommendations?

15 out of 15 is 100%, so it seems good, but it is still only out of 15 which is not really meaningful...

You have answered your own question, its only 15 out of 15 and doesn't address the risk of withdrawal during the term of trade.
If used in combination with simple entry/exit signals, it can be used as another tool to identify trade opportunities.

Personaly, I like seasonal spread trades better.
 
Here's my bet:
Downtrend resistance has been broken, however there's not a whole lot of bullish news.
Tuesday's action reaks of reversal.
I'm bettin' the market comes down to the bottom of a newly forming channel (shown in green).
 

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Soymeal turning?

hi
I am looking at Soybean meal and both the SMK05 & SMN05 daily charts are turning and may ready to break up. This IMHO only and being a novice at commodities I would apprecaite if anyone else has an opinion on this.

Thanks
Nick
 
monarch said:
hi
I am looking at Soybean meal and both the SMK05 & SMN05 daily charts are turning and may ready to break up. This IMHO only and being a novice at commodities I would apprecaite if anyone else has an opinion on this.

Thanks
Nick

SM counts as tracing out a five-wave decline from the May high within which the drop from the high of December looks like a final diagonal triangle wave 5 of (C) that could be complete at Monday's low. A substantial advance might follow.

My hourly charts have turned bullish but too early on the daily charts.

IMHO you might want to go long on a pullback nearer to 1530 (basis SM K5 or 1550'sh basis July). eg pullback on th hourly chart. Initial target 1600 - 1620. Suggested stop above high of w1 (hourly) at <1539. Looks like a relatively low risk proposition.

I might be joining you.
Good luck



PS. As you can see I have no fundamental knowledge of Meal (or any of other grains). I read that a close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.70 (basis March) would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. And that's exactly what happened yesterday. Overnight I do not see much has developed.
PS2. I see that Commercials are long while large spec are short (eg considerable scope for short covering)
 

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and this is what my grains broker, whose opinion I do respect, says:

"They are all still in downtrends, appears to be a correction in a downtrend
and right up to what I would term resistance now"

Therefore, don't load the boat.
 
Hi Bgold
you have just called it exactly as I was seeing it.
I have a crossover yesterday on daily charts and was looking for res @ 1613 with sup @ 1500.
I am looking to go long SMN05 @ 155.0 if I can get filled. Looking for long term rally thru to early July. First step to break the 1613 line.
But hey what do I know.
Need to look at some fundementals first.

thanks
Nick
 
Right now, the fundamentals are bearish, but have been factored into the market. SM has been trading in a wide range (which I've been playing). Spring is near, which should bring some changes, but the talk is that South American crops will be huge.

The charts say this market should turn up. So what fundamental news will turn it? How 'bout farmers not wanting to plant soybeans because of low prices and/or fear of soybean rust? How 'bout a real infection of soybean rust? I do believe there is a risk of it this year.

My personal opinion is that there is a lot of money to be made on the long side this year.
 
Hi
Just read USDA report that dry weather in Rio Grande do Sol has led to down grade on estimate of Brazilian crop by 1.5mmt to 63mmt. Not a great deal as crop is still over supplied due to last years heavy crop but may be enough to start movement.
Got long at 156.00 and seen steady rise to 158.9 now.

good luck
Monarch
 
Soymeal on the move?

Hi all
Soymeal up again yesterday. SMN05 up 4.00 showing a break thru previous resistance @ 161.30. Next possible res 167.5 but could go to 170.78 before next major res.
A report in Kanas Commodites paper that dry weather in southern Brazil leads to a concern about drought stress on crop and wet weather in Northern Brazil leading to problems with harvesting.
There is an over supply of soybean due to last years bumper harvest but news like this may help to keep the price moving in the right direction. IMHO

Any one with other/contra opinions would be welcome.

Monarch
 
monarch said:
Hi all
Soymeal up again yesterday. SMN05 up 4.00 showing a break thru previous resistance @ 161.30. Next possible res 167.5 but could go to 170.78 before next major res.
A report in Kanas Commodites paper that dry weather in southern Brazil leads to a concern about drought stress on crop and wet weather in Northern Brazil leading to problems with harvesting.
There is an over supply of soybean due to last years bumper harvest but news like this may help to keep the price moving in the right direction. IMHO

Any one with other/contra opinions would be welcome.

Monarch

Bought initial position in S K5. Brasil drought should suppotrt prices

BOT initial position at 531.75 and added on 532.75 with BUY stop at 532.75 which triggered late day
initial target for a partial > 542 Initial Stop at 526
 
bgold said:
Bought initial position in S K5. Brasil drought should suppotrt prices

BOT initial position at 531.75 and added on 532.75 with BUY stop at 532.75 which triggered late day
initial target for a partial > 542 Initial Stop at 526

Short covering by funds! S K5 closed near highs at 553. As always, I took partials a little too early.

I was stopped on 1/3 for 539.5 for 7 3/4 profit
Sold 1/3 for 547 for 14 1/4,
raised stop on remainder to 547 1/2

So what's next? If dry and hot over the 3 day weekend in Brazil sharply higher Tue, could be 30 higher, and reverse if unexpected rains (which can come come out of nowhere) 30 lower.
 
I doubt hot weather would have much effect. It's already factored in. I think the market needs a correction.
 
gene said:
I doubt hot weather would have much effect. It's already factored in. I think the market needs a correction.

That's not what I hear from 2 different and unrelated sources close to the grain markets.
Doesn't really matter, It will all be in the price.
 
Anybody still LONG these markets from last week? A sharp move up - nearly 60-70 cents in 2 weeks?

I'm not trading grains at the moment, but interested to see this weather market from way down south in Brazil.

Now, if the drought in South Brazil extends north to the Coffee areas, we could have a real explosion in that market in April/May time.
 
Hi DaveT
yes i am still in SMN from 156.0 but must say was a bit unsure where it was going to go today after holiday and such sharp rise last week. Once market moved on open bought again @173.9.
I have seen it break through res @ 170.78 and set next possible res @192.37.
I think IMHO the market is reacting to:
a: the lack of rain in S.Brazil leading to crop not filling due to drought
this could end later in the week as rain is forecast but still a bit of uncertainity as to wether it will be enough.
b: Malaysia & Vietnam are looking to buy and there is a rumour that China has put in a big order for Soybean.

Although the market is well supplied by last years bumper crops these factors are helping fuel the rise, I think, but hey what do I know.
The price has risen over 8 points since open and there seems to be sustained buying whenever the price slips back a bit. (Depth of market screen on OEC).

The next big test will come later in the week when the rain is expected in S.Brazil and then we will see what strength this run has.

Hope this helps

Monarch
DaveT said:
Anybody still LONG these markets from last week? A sharp move up - nearly 60-70 cents in 2 weeks?

I'm not trading grains at the moment, but interested to see this weather market from way down south in Brazil.

Now, if the drought in South Brazil extends north to the Coffee areas, we could have a real explosion in that market in April/May time.
 
Brazilian Farmers Brace for Lower Soybean Prices
BRAZIL — Around the clock an endless caravan of trucks carrying soybeans rumbles along the BR364 motorway in the western Mato Grosso state on its way to Brazil's Atlantic ports, about 900 miles to the southeast. Another bumper soy crop is being harvested.

But despite the record production, farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil's biggest soybean producer, are bracing for their worst financial crisis since they began cultivating this barren region in the mid-1980s.

The collapse of international soybean prices and a big rise in production costs caught Mato Grosso's highly indebted farmers off guard, plunging many into deep losses after years of big profits. As a result, two decades of gold rush-style expansion along this agricultural frontier are coming to an end.

"Brazil's agribusiness is in flux. We are victims of a crisis of abundance," Otaviano Pivetta, rural development secretary in Mato Grosso, told hundreds of protesting farmers in Cuiaba, the state capital, this month.

This year farmers are expected to lose more than half a billion dollars on their harvest, according to the state agriculture federation, known as Famato. Short of cash, farmers are likely to plant less in September, further dimming prospects for soybean and soy product exports, which totaled $10 billion in 2004.

Source: Los Angeles Times
 
Josbarr, hope your timing of your trades is better than posting this article on the day that Soybeans again gapped up, with May closing at 577?

I am afraid I sold my remaining position before the long weekend at 553 :rolleyes:
 
Nice gain again yesterday but the night market Soy showed decline. Makes me a little nervous about where we are going to go on open today.
I may well take my profits and wait to re-enter on a drop back. But I will have to be guided by the market as there are conflicting signals.
Pro's: Exports are up and S Brazil still uncertain how much rain they will get and if it is going to be enough to save a loss on production. The funds are buying up the longer term contracts helping fuel the price.
Taiwan is tendering to buy 40,000-60,000 tons of soybeans from Brazil or the US and traders seem hopeful that Japan may buy more April delivery soybeans and are not ruling out US origin.
Taiwan tendered last week but withdrew when the price rose to high, if they are coming back to the market now after the price has jumped again there is hope that this may well help support the rise.

Con's: The price has seen some big jumps in the last 10 days and although not near any resistance I have been expecting some form of correction or consolidation. The market is still well supplied by last years bumper crops. I feel this price rise is mainly due to risk premium caused by the concerns about the S Brazilian crop and buying from the far east.
If there is major rainfall in S.Brazil we could see a major correction in price.
These ramblings are only my opinions and I may be total wrong, I would welcome any comments.

Monarch
 
I've been wanting to buy any sign of upward movement, but when the move began, I was too heavily invested in other markets that were doing well. I could have done better here, but I missed out...and still waiting for a correction that hasn't yet come. My hands are free, now, so if nothing else gets my attention, I'm considering selling the pull-back today (yeah, I like to play too much. :) )... if it still looks like one later today. (This is similar to what I told myself yesturday at this time. :rolleyes: )
After the pull-back is over, then I'll do some serious buying.
 
got out yesterday and took profits as price droped. Due to be unable to get filled quickly not as much profit as I had hoped for.
I think the general feeling now is the Soybean market is overbought and is correcting to a level that is sustainable.
The only thing that may still push prices is the uncertainty of the rain in S.Brazil as discussed in previous posts and also that there is still some major players still buying/filling tenders.
IMHO I think that the meal price could still head higher but may need a period of consolidation before any major move up.
I will certainly be looking for an oppurtunity to get back in at the right price and time.

Good luck
Monarch
 
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