Soybeans - Long Term

[PeterTT]

I have taken profit in March at 925 (too soon as usual !) as my spreadbetters would close this position anyway on Wednesday. I am keeping the May long .. did not get a chance to add any as there was not enough pullback. I think I will run with a loose trailing stop and if we get a couple of days sideways trading I will probably add to my position and jam the stop up closer.

Peter

 

[josbarr]

CBOT Soy Review: Soyoil Collapses On Talk Of Imports Into US
-- Rumors Circulate Of Soyoil Imported Up Mississippi River
-- China Rumored To Have Cancelled 4-5 Cargoes Of South American Soyoil
By Tanner Ehmke
Chicago, March 2 (OsterDowJones) - Soyoil and soybean futures at the
Chicago Board of Trade collapsed Tuesday on talk of South American soyoil
being imported into the U.S. via the Mississippi River.
Trade sources said soyoil has been imported into the U.S. for the past
three weeks through Baton Rouge. However, other market participants were more
cynical of the rumors.
"It doesn't pencil in. There were some rumors of Dreyfus taking some oil
last week, but it didn't work out," one veteran broker said. "All we did was
hit sell stops when no one was underneath it. To try to explain it
fundamentally is a crock."
May soybeans settled 29 cents lower at $9.28 1/2 a bushel, and Jly beans
were 30 1/2c lower at $9.14 a bushel. May soymeal finished $4.80 lower at
$281.30 a short ton, and May soyoil ended 152 points lower at 33.03c a pound.

 

[DaveT]

Thanks josbarr,

Is this news the straw that breaks the camel's back? The market was hoping for a SA import ban, due to Asian rust concerns.

I've done a quick TA of May 04 Soybeans.

Looks very much like a key reversal to me. How long this top will hold (if it is a top) is another matter, ofcourse. Bull markets this strong can often confound conventional analysis.

There has been beasrish RSI divergence for some time, note.

Historically, Beans have been unable to sustain prices at these levels for long.

A break, at least, seems likely. We could see a return move/ retest of the high first , though.

But will the dip ultimately be another buying opportunity, going into US planting/growing season?

If we knew all the answers....

 

[PeterTT]

Very close to my trailing stop .. I will be amazed if I am still in it this time tomorrow .. Short term looks like its going back into the channel. If I do not get stopped tomorrow I will ramp up my stop even further as this is a big warning sign for me that the "easy money" is now over.
Peter

 

[frugi]

DaveT,

That RSI could be bullish - it's broken out of a channel, confirming price action, and returned to test previous resistance. It may hold. It's bounced off 50 three times. I see the bearish div but perhaps it's been negated by the breakout? I'll be interested to see what happens when/if the price tests the top of the channel.

That reversal is brutal though, I quite agree!

 

[DaveT]

Good point frugi -

Re. - bearish divergence in Soybeans : a good way to see longer-term divergences is in the context of the trend they inhabit.

Where do you see bearish divergences? IN AN UPTREND!

Where do you see bullish divergences? IN A DOWNTREND!

Many traders see momentum divergence and EXPECT a reversal. Meanwhile, the trend continues.

I've been taught to see it this way:

Short-term (STRONG) divergence= possible CORRECTION in a trend.

Long-term (WEAK) divergence = ILLUSTRATION of prevailing trend.

Until a top formation appears in the price, of course...

 

[PeterTT]

Finally stopped out today 925 .. after a nice run on these soybeans I will watch from the sidelines for now.

Peter

 

[bgold]

Another Soybeans bullrun?

1. S N4 appears to have broken out of its downchannel
2. Can be argued that wave iv (circled) was completed at 921 low,
3. Indicators appear to turning up (RSI on day chart was only down to ~40)

Fundamentals apparently also support a possible run?

Who knows? Your views most welcome?

 

[PeterTT]

I am tempted to buy, but also looking at corn which has a similar pattern .. Peter

 

[bgold]

Agree. I am long both but only initial position. C Z at 307 and S N at 946.

 

[josbarr]

TOLEDO, Ohio May 2, 2005 — Farmers are bracing for what researchers predict will be the return of an insect that attacks soybeans in the Midwest, where most of the crop is grown.

For now, farmers must decide whether it makes sense to spray for soybean aphids before the insects emerge. Some say they will wait until they know whether their fields have been infested. Others aren't taking chances.

"All of the research points to this being the year for aphids," said Allen Armstrong, who plans on preventive spraying on about a quarter of his soybeans.


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Most of the nation's soybeans are grown in Midwest.

The United States dominates in soybean production, accounting for 40 percent of the world market. Exports of soybeans at $8 billion to $9 billion a year are worth more than any other crop.

The tiny aphids suck the sap out of soybean plants and stunt their growth, leading to less productive plants. They were a problem two years ago but nearly nonexistent in 2004.

Farmers are faced with yield losses or spending $12 to $15 per acre to buy and apply insecticide once the insect is detected, usually in late July or early August.

Once Armstrong spots any aphids this summer, he plans on spraying all of his fields instead of waiting to see if the numbers increase.

"We'll be a little more proactive," said Armstrong, who lives near South Charleston in western Ohio.

Farmers who opt to spray the insecticide early will be wasting their money, said Kevin Steffey, a crop sciences professor at the University of Illinois.

The early application will be effective for only up to two weeks, he said. "If we have a population explosion, they'll be spraying again."

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Beans

Hybrid Thread

Did somebody say Beans?

"All of the research points to this being the year for aphids," said Allen Armstrong, who plans on preventive spraying on about a quarter of his soybeans.

 

[josbarr]

From CBOT.com

Traders were looking for the weekly crop progress report to show planting progress as of May 1st reaching 4-8% complete. After the close, the USDA reported that 8% of the crop was planted as compared with 11% as the 15-year average for this time of the year.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Bean Spread update

Hybrid Thread

Spread still trending​

 

[Spcboe]

Anyone trading? Or has everyone left for harvest?

 

[bgold]

Anyone trading? Or has everyone left for harvest?

yes, recently long S N6/X6 spread but stopped out for 4 pts. See were it goes from here. Any ideas?

 

[Spcboe]

yes, recently long S N6/X6 spread but stopped out for 4 pts. See were it goes from here. Any ideas?

Actually, I am new to Soybeans. I am watching to see what we do with 567 or 577 areas. let's see get s beans moving again.

 

[marketwavez]

soybeans ...............

bgold ..............

here is a long term look at soy beans ..........

 

[marketwavez]

Soybeans ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

BGOLD ........

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LAST TIME , YOU SAID GRAINS ....... LOOK HERE
I DO ELLIOTT- WAVES ON ALL THE MARKETS ......
EXCEPT STOCKS .....

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an Elliott Wave look at Soybeans .................

A probable Wave count .................