Some of my trades, forecasts

[rgsharp]

Dec, a live trade is called in real time with a stop soon after taking the trade.
Otherwise anyone can claim anything.His trades he leaves in if they go wrong till they go his way.Weve seen it all many times.

With all due respect Lord flash don't follow the thread if you don't like it.

Personally I have a lot of sympathy for the point that you make about trading with out stops; I never do it myself. However, as I am sure that you are aware many "Traders" use stops incorrectly and are prematurely stopped out anyway. Maybe there is some sensible middle ground for people to explore?
But surely the overriding thing here is that the information in this thread is given freely with no charge and warnings to develop "your own" trading style. A lot of work clearly goes into sharing this information and I think that Folks should respect that.

Regards
Richard

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Re: Gbp/usd

I went short at the WR1, 1.5418, TP is 1.5387
Just another quickie on cable.

fine i will accept what has been said and dissapear from this thread. Perhaps someone could explain how the trade above helps you. it has a traget of 31 pips,went 65 pips against him and hes still in. How can that ever work(just another quickie on cable)
Im gone, good luck to all

 

[Dommo]

Personally I have a lot of sympathy for the point that you make about trading with out stops; I never do it myself. However, as I am sure that you are aware many "Traders" use stops incorrectly and are prematurely stopped out anyway. Maybe there is some sensible middle ground for people to explore?

Agreed - there is no definitive global rule about stops. A trend follower in a volatile market might justify a very different view to someone fading a rangy market.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

I took the trade out at 1.5402, +16. It looks like I endured an ugly spike agaisnt me while sleeping as it hit my WR2.

I went short at the WR1, 1.5418, TP is 1.5387
Just another quickie on cable.

 

[Dommo]

Re: Gbp/usd

fine i will accept what has been said and dissapear from this thread. Perhaps someone could explain how the trade above helps you. it has a traget of 31 pips,went 65 pips against him and hes still in. How can that ever work(just another quickie on cable)
Im gone, good luck to all

Fair enough, I'll hypothesise. He believes the market is rangy/reverting on a basis regular enough to justify the strategy . He goes short at level 1, shorts again at level 2 (when 65 points in drawdown), and the price comes all the way back, so that both entries are in profit. He is in for two lots, but on a single lot basis he is 31 + 31 + 65 pips in profit.

Sometimes fading like this will make his eyes water. He will have some rule for dealing with that. But if he's satisfied that (statistically) (i) this reversion occurs often enough to cover losses, and (ii) the likelihood of ruin is low enough to be acceptable and (iii) he is disciplined enough to adhere to that big picture, I think this is viable.

 

[4xpipcounter]

LordF, a stop is a stereotypical hangup you have. It is advised fo most. Unless you have the experience, it is not advised. What do you want me to do? Have then go the wrong way, then take them out. It doesn't matter what happens during the journey. The only thing that counts is the final destination.
If I fly to London, I prefer getting a plane in Columbus, Oh and flying straight through. Other times, I might have to drive to Indianapolis, Ind, and catch a plane there. Sometimes, I might catch it in Columbus, lay over in Miama, Fl for 3 hours, and then catch the next plane the rest of the way to London. I still made it to London.
As long as you are aware of the time aspects, everything will be okay. In trading, as long as you are aware of the margin aspects, everything will be okay.
I have admitted to everyone in this thread, that lately, many of my posted trades have been ugly, but if the GBP/CHf piggy back fiasco is considered one net trade, then it has been over 3 weeks since I have had a losing trade, private or posted. I've had one losing trade in the last 3 weeks, if the GBP/CHF would be considred 2 W's and 1 L.

Dec, a live trade is called in real time with a stop soon after taking the trade.
Otherwise anyone can claim anything.His trades he leaves in if they go wrong till they go his way.Weve seen it all many times.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Re: Gbp/usd

I took the trade out at 1.5402, +16. It looks like I endured an ugly spike agaisnt me while sleeping as it hit my WR2.

how can trading like that make money, the r/r is 4 to 1 against. Anyway as I said people have come in to support you so I will go and annoy someone else

 

[4xpipcounter]

Regardless where you are in the world, the Asian session begins at midnight GMT. My S&R's are set for the week at 11:00 pm GMT.
I'll qualify that statement. I can actually do them all as soon as the market closes on Friday. I have some software that does all the work for me, so I just wait for 11 pm GMT. It's a little after that time I'm off ot church, so it is 3:00 am GMT that I am actually in tune with them. This is why you can expect them no sooner than that time.
Dommo, notice I told you in the other thread to expect eith a correction at the WR1 or a continuation to WR2. We got the continuation, then the hard bounce. It is rare of a 2 to be hit before NY on Monday. It's the sign of a volatile week coming up.
I'm in the EST, -5 GMT.
It's fine you quoting form the other thread. I'm glad you came by.

Quoting you from the 'random' thread - seems more on topic here.



Thanks for posting the pairs I suggested last week. If I was fading the market using your levels I would at this point have positive outcomes today on JPY and GBP.

I think you wrote something along the lines that the asian session sets the tone. Out of interest, when you set your S/R levels for the week on a Sunday evening/Monday morning (I assume you are in an americas timezone), do you take into account what is happening at the start of the week in Asia?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

It helped me because the equity in my account just increased again.

fine i will accept what has been said and dissapear from this thread. Perhaps someone could explain how the trade above helps you. it has a traget of 31 pips,went 65 pips against him and hes still in. How can that ever work(just another quickie on cable)
Im gone, good luck to all

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

I would have added another position at WR2 if I was awake, but I missed it.

Fair enough, I'll hypothesise. He believes the market is rangy/reverting on a basis regular enough to justify the strategy . He goes short at level 1, shorts again at level 2 (when 65 points in drawdown), and the price comes all the way back, so that both entries are in profit. He is in for two lots, but on a single lot basis he is 31 + 31 + 65 pips in profit.

Sometimes fading like this will make his eyes water. He will have some rule for dealing with that. But if he's satisfied that (statistically) (i) this reversion occurs often enough to cover losses, and (ii) the likelihood of ruin is low enough to be acceptable and (iii) he is disciplined enough to adhere to that big picture, I think this is viable.

 

[Dommo]

Re: Gbp/usd

how can trading like that make money, the r/r is 4 to 1 against. Anyway as I said people have come in to support you so I will go and annoy someone else

I think your question is perfectly legitimate. Ignoring transaction costs, if R/R is 4:1 and you win more than 80% of the time, your expectation is positive.

If you're averaging into the trade, it's obviously a bit more complicated, but still just stats/arithmetic.

Of course, you need to satisfy yourself about the statistical makeup of your strategy.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

LordF, my trading style is very unorthodox, but effective foe me. The followers in this thread know that. A lot of benefitted from the information of the thread. I've been honest enough to admit the times when I blew it. This is why it is like jumping in a lions' den here.

how can trading like that make money, the r/r is 4 to 1 against. Anyway as I said people have come in to support you so I will go and annoy someone else

 

[Dommo]

Re: Gbp/usd

I would have added another position at WR2 if I was awake, but I missed it.

Sure - and my example is hypothetical, assuming simple naive fading the market at predetermined levels. I believe your strategy has a lot more to it than just that - it's just evident to me that naively fading certain markets can be made to work.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

That is why I trade this way. I figured the math and stats that go with it. I spent long hours hashing over everything. This is I also have my backup plan in place. Many traders do not have a reserve of liquid assets if they need to pull from them.

I think your question is perfectly legitimate. Ignoring transaction costs, if R/R is 4:1 and you win more than 80% of the time, your expectation is positive.

If you're averaging into the trade, it's obviously a bit more complicated, but still just stats/arithmetic.

Of course, you need to satisfy yourself about the statistical makeup of your strategy.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

Watch for reaction at .9351, my WR1.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Watch for reaction at 1.2858, my WR2. There was no correction at the WR1 at 1.2782, so it implies a strong correction.
I'm actually hoping I'm wrong. I want to get out of the EUR/CHF position.
BTW, in terms of a metaphor, in recent weeks, the EUR/CHF has hit what should be a concrete floor. The problem is the moves UP still alck any real conviction that this is THE move.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/chf

We did get the 50% correctional bounce off the WS1 at 1.0131. 10072, the WS2 is shaping up as a wonderful entry to go long. This pair is on my definite watchlist.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/cad

Dommo, notice how the pair is starting to struggle at the WS1 at 1.0278. We could get a bounce, and then a continuation. We could also get a correction. At this point, it is favorable to see a move to the WS2 at 1.0217

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/jpy

Notice on the chart there was a correction off the WS1, contained perfectly by the WP. There is also a strong cluster of R with the tenken, and the cloud in the way near the WP. WS1 has a cluster S with a straightline kijun. It is favorable for that to be broken, and then a move to the WS2 at 83.55.

This gives an idea of how the S&R's word relative to the requests for the loonie, cable, and the yen.
I won't get into gold. Hari uses my S&R's better than I do--lol.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

It works as long as all the other elements of the strategy are in place.
1. There is a conviction about the trader is methodology is right.
2. Has strong fundamental margining skills.
3. You got to have some mental coolness. Your nerves will be run to ruin if you don't.
I have self-proclaimed, "ice in my veins". It helps the way things have been going recently.

Sure - and my example is hypothetical, assuming simple naive fading the market at predetermined levels. I believe your strategy has a lot more to it than just that - it's just evident to me that naively fading certain markets can be made to work.