I try to predicate all my claims on results, and put the actions behind my words. I would be curious to know if anyone is going to find more accurate analysis on 28 pairs plus gold anywhere on the internet. This is now 2 weeks of posting my Weekly Report and then showing the results on this thread.
I may have the strangest methodology around, some semantics I may have to pull out of the archival closet, a bit of a twisted way of viewing the markets and then predicating my forecasts on them, but two things are for sure-- it is effective, and no one can duplicate it. I meant my methodology and way of forecasting. My success can be, and probably is by several traders.
Enjoy! The Weekly Report is next. BTW, I've gotten e-mails about the supposed work this contains. I might be out of my mind, but this is shear enjoyment.
Again, the bold print from the cut-n-paste did not show up. The review portion is the last paragraph of each section.
Also the actual copy, which does look nicer, is available via e-mail if anyone would like it.
EUR/USD: This should be the week we get a close above the daily tenken at 1.2755. We should then be ready for a march towards 1.2963, possibly 1.3063, but 1.3163 is absolute containment. All the levels ending in “63” are pure coincidence. This year, the mathematics of the Fibo levels in between my S&R's worked perfectly from the 38.2>50.0>61.8% levels. I wanted to clarify that because my analysis means more to me than sexy looking numbers.
We did have a spike above the daily tenken to start the week, but that was not quite good enough. Thursday finally started the week above the tenken and it stayed there the rest of the week as the peak was seen on Friday at 1.2897
USD/JPY: To start the week, this pair should make a correction to at least 84.86 which is a combination of the hourly kijun and the 4-hour tenken. From there, the ideal scenario is for the move to continue north to around 87.50. That circa area makes for an ideal short, as on the next leg, we head to the low 83.00's
The “ideal scenario” was not met. The pair continued up to the WR1 at 85.91 and took a hard bounce from there. The dip only made it to 83.67.
GBP/USD: This pair has no place to go on the downside. It's got room for a minor retracement, but Tuesday's low at 1.5373 should be solid until the correction is finished. The correction could also get highly volatile. 1.5720 is on the radar. That area is solid resistance. If that is broken, then we are on our way to 1.5889, and even the recent peak at 1.5998 could be challenged.
I did say last week this pair is getting highly unpredictable, and this week proved it. That low was taken out as a new one was made at 1.5327, and then bounced at the daily tenken, and then ended the week there at 1.5463.
USD/CHF: Many of the Swiss crosses look weak, but I am still not convinced of it on the major. It could be this major looks more tightly consolidative with, still, a downside bias. The pair ended the week punching it out with the MS1 at 1.0298. We could get a pullback to start the week, but I'm still expecting upside containment, at least initially, to be circa 1.0358. As it heads back DOWN, then the range on the downside should be 1.0251—1.0072. From a trader's point of view, 1.0180 could be a nice entry to take advantage of what will be eventually a nice LT UP.
That low end of the range was hit on Wednesday as the low was actually 1.0064.
EUR/CHF:This pair has now entered the doorway of the new trend. Maximum pullback for the week should be no further than 1.3059, but the 4-hour kijun is preferable at 1.3079. After that, it should be nothing but heading north for this pair. There is lots of R, but then this is going to be a strong UP. I would watch for 1.3214, which is the daily tenken. Once there is a close above that, then 1.3447 could be very tough to get around. Also, look for the area of 1.3334 to be a strong R.
This pair entered the “doorway”, and then found room to move further south-- 2 legs worth to 1.2851. The nice thing is the tenken also took a dip with price action, as it is now 1.3007, and so the price did finish above that at 1.3116.
AUD/USD: There are a few different scenarios that could unfold here. First, current level could be it, and we are going back DOWN. Second, it could just continue to the MP at .9045, and then reverse. It could also retrace to .8921, then move to .9045, and then be back in the DOWN that way. Basically, the correction on the DOWN took all of one day to complete. The circa area of the latter mentioned should be containment. Over the longer term, this pair is really setting up for explosions down to .8682 and .8501. This week containment on the low end will probably be seen at .8794.
I was unsure of the route this pair would take this week. The only thing that happened was that “containment on the low end” was held at .8860, but the last thing I expected was for the pair to finish at the level it is now at .9167.
USD/CAD: This leg of the drop should be headed to 1.0464. What is ideal to see a strong recovery from that point to 1.0700. We will get a strong move south from that point where the potential is 1.0361. It's a tight choppy week if we don't get back close to 1.0700. Overall, the pair could make for a nice 3-way trip-- current level>1.0464>1.0700>1.0361.
This is the route it took-- 1.0470>1.0672>1.0385.
NZD/USD: There is a cluster R at 1.7150, which is the top of the daily cloud and the kijun. That's containment, or things get sloppy. We could see a zig zag all the way to .7253 if we get a daily close above the aforementioned. On the reversal, I see .7000 as being containment on the downside.
The cluster R did hold up at the beginning of the week, but then it was a maniacal race down the hill as containment was broken to .6964, then got the strong bounce, and it never let up towards Friday's high at .7217
EUR/GBP: This pair is going to be all over the place, and will not make for any kind of an ideal entry, unless one of the extremities is hit at .8339 or .8132. The nice thing is my short was opened at the high end of the current cycle, so I will snag a few pips out of it.
The extremity was hit as the peak took until Friday to hit at .8349.
EUR/JPY: Like all yen pairs, a reversal to start the week is favored. This pair will make a nice short to 107.94, and possibly a little deeper. From there, it should be another strong leg UP. This paired seems to be cued in on 109.92 and 111.29, but not necessarily all this week.
The pair ended up correcting further than expected, as the dip ended up at 106.17. The recovery took that pair to 109.55, so as was expected, even though the pair is “cued in on 109.92 and 111.29, neither was hit this week, but did come very close.
GBP/JPY: A move south towards 131.48 will begin the week, then it is headed north the rest of the way. Upper end range for the week is 132.25—134.98. I'm thinking 133.51 is a very viable target.
Because of cable being turned upside down, this pair's route for the week was also turned upside down. The “viable target” for the week was 133.51, and the high was established at the beginning of the week at 133.59. Good job there, but the dip took us to 128.63.
CHF/JPY: This pair is right in the middle of no man's land. Expect another range for the week of 85.92—81.50. It is not looking very tradeable, unless one of the two extremities is hit.
This pair put me to sleep, as was expected. We stayed within the range as the dip took us to 82.08, and the peak was 83.82.
GBP/CHF: This pair has now entered the doorway to recovery. Look for a correction to start the week to 1.5903. Afterward, the journey north begins. 1.6108—1.6521 should be the upper range this week. Look for the weekly tenken to be a reasonable objective this week at 1.6292.
Blame it on cable again. The pair entered that doorway and continued south, as my projections were not close. The low was 1.5512.
EUR/AUD: There is some uncertainty that revolves around this pair for this week, but this is my best view of this support. It should start off the week continuing its drop with 1.4131 acting as support. The reversal does not look strong, and it also appears stuck in a channel, that after the drop, should range from 1.4492—1.4225.
There was a lot of uncertainty, which is why I stated is as such. The pair started the week moving north to the peak at 1.4328, and then hit the low on Friday at 1.3994.
EUR/CAD: The tenken / top of the cloud combo on the daily should contain any drop this week. Ideally, a move to 1.3624 will create and excellent shorting opportunity that will come equipped with a strong leg. We did have a 27-point spike beyond the tenken top of the cloud combo to start the week. We did not quite make it to 1.3624 for the ideal short as 1.3584 was the peak. Afterward, we had the strong move down to 1.3377.
AUD/CAD: All I got to say is find an entry to go short on this pair. It is ready to motor south. Possible support to start the week will be the hourly tenken and kijun. .9180 might be containment for the week. .9265 is a viable target.
The pair took off south alright, but only to .9406. Needless to say I was expecting something a little deeper than that. After peaking at .9617 on Friday, we did get a strong move south.
AUD/JPY: This pair looks exciting! Anywhere between current level and 77.15 is making for an ideal short. If it moves close to 75.00, then it should make for an ideal reversal and go back UP. That would need to be monitored as the week moves on.
This pair was a lot of fun this week. That “current level was 77.11. The initial peak was 77.50, and then the move south ended at 74.51. The “ideal reversal” took us back to 78.04. I joined the bears going DOWN (verified), and the bulls going UP (not verified) on this pair.
NZD/JPY: Between current level and 61.08 should be a viable turning point. 59.66 should be as low as it gets this week. Once that circa area is hit, it will make for a nice long as the proclivity will change to the upside, and we'll see a high end of 61.73.
61.25 ended up being the initial peak, and then the reversal ended one leg lower than expected at 58.39, and the “high end” was realized at 61.42.
CAD/JPY: Another mouthwatering yen cross. It is ready to go south. 79.72—78.75 should be the downside range for the week.
The pair went just 20 points on the other side of the downside range at 78.55.
AUD/NZD: Another boring week in store for this pair. The channel it is in remains at 1.2750 and 1.2425. A favorable position is to wait for the weekly kijun to be hit at 1.2662, and then go south.
It did break out of the range on the upside to 1.2825, which created some unexpected, untradeable excitement.
GBP/AUD: 1.7123 appears to be containment for any further drop. The range this week could be as high as 1.7706, but I'm counting on price to hit the top of the hourly at 1.7514.
Things will get interesting for this pair in the next couple of weeks as the pair should get shoved into the cloud with the tenken and kijun following on its heels.
Again, thanks a lot cable. The high end was only 1.7369, and it hit the low at 1.6819 on Friday.
GBP/CAD: The journey south has begun, but 1.6035 appears to be containment for the week, but that could change as the week progresses.
Nothing changed. The low was 1.6039 for the week.
BTW, the reason this cable cross was so accurate, is because the loonie crosses were uncanny this week.
GBP/NZD: This is not easy. We could get a move back to 2.1954 to start the week. The move could also continue marching its way south to circa 2.1600. If the latter happens, then we have a favorable entry to go long.
I won't blame cable on this one. I'll have to admit I miscalculated both ends of the spectrum this week. 2.2087 was established at the beginning of the week, and Friday it hit a low of 2.1373.
NZD/CAD: A slight move south to the hourly kijun at .7469 could begin the week. The MR1 at .7557 is a fresh R point that has not been touched all month. That could be the end of this current UP the pair has been in. There is still not a lot of potential for this pair this week, as we should witness largely a sideways motion.
The move started the week by dipping to .7389, and established a high at .7571. It was only a spike beyond my MR1 that made it 14 points off.
NZD/CHF: A pullback to start the week should be in store to the 4-hour kijun at .7262, then the move should go to .7421, which is the current top of the cloud. Like the NZD/CAD, things look tight this week. .7128 is the low end on the downside, with .7250 being a more practical target .
The dip ended at .7062, and it was UP the rest of the week to a peak at .7374.
AUD/CHF: At current level, this pair is stretched, and needs to let out some of the steam it displayed on the homestretch last week. A correction to .9154 should make for an ideal entry to go long the rest of the week. There is potential for the pair to rise as high as .9423.
I was off on the correction as the dip ended at .9011, but it still almost reached its full potential on the upside as the peak was .9380.
CAD/CHF: Similar to the AUD/CHF, this pair needs to let out some of the steam it displayed on the homestretch last week, but is less predictable where the correction is going to end up. I'll say .9718, and it will also yield a nice long opportunity the rest of the week. Potential this week is .9979, even though parity is on the radar probably by next week.
The one thing I knew about this pair was that it was going to make an excellent opportunity to go long. I hope it was understood by the wording that I did not have an accurate handle on just where the dip was headed. As it turned out it was much lower than expected at .9500, so even though from there it made for a nice long opportunity, it came short of expectations at .9829, because of the additional ground it needed to made up.
EUR/NZD: This pair is in the middle of nowhere. The only trading opportunity worth considering is if we get a move up to circa 1.8160. At that point go short. This out look is subject to change as the week progresses, it is about to enter a channel that will have upward proclivity. The other thing to consider is if we get a move to 1.7675. At that point, we have a red pair, and all you got to do is hit the long button. If that happens, then 1.8225 is upward containment for the week.
I was, predictably, directionless on this pair, but my upward containment point at .8225 was only exceeded by 13 points.
Gold: More corrective noise will be seen this week. The peak at 1264.96 should hold,. All moves downward will be looking at containment in the circa 1195.76 area.
Gold, this week, was even more tighter than expected, as the range was 1231.63—1254.40.
