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Euro sharpens decline to two-week low amid grim outlook

Euro fell in European trade against dollar for third straight session, hitting two-week lows amid grim outlook for European services and manufacturing, which could hinder the ECB's policy tightening plans. The dollar extended its gains following recent remarks by Fed officials, which confirms the ECB will carry on its battle against inflation in the US. EURUSD fell 0.7% fell 1.0252, the lowest since November 11, after losing 0.4% on Friday, the second loss in a row as two-year German treasury yields slowed down.

Euro fell 0.3% last week against dollar on profit-taking away from four-month highs at 1.0481.

Grim Outlook

Europe's manufacturing PMI data are expected later today to show a slowdown in activities in November.
The data is expected to bring down bets on the European Central Bank's expected rate hikes at upcoming meetings.


The Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.6% on Monday on track for the third profit in a row, hitting two-week highs at 107.59 against a basket of major rivals.
Recent US data showed retail sales rose past estimates in October, while Fed officials such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Dale said it's reasonable the Fed will raise rates to 5.25% by early next year.​

 

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EURUSD Confirms the Break

The EURUSD pair ended yesterday below 1.0285 level, to get more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, supported by moving below the EMA50 that presses negatively on the price, waiting for more decline to achieve our negative targets that start at 1.0175 followed by 1.0135.

Stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum gradually to support the expectations to decline, noting that breaching 1.0285 followed by 1.0305 levels will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to recover again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0175 support and 1.0320 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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NZDUSD - Investors expect a decrease in trading activity during the week

Although yesterday's report on consumer spending with credit cards showed an annual growth of 24.8%, which is lower than the previous month's figure (34.0%), investors found a positive driver in the statistics on foreign trade levels. According to Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz), the country's exports in October increased by 758.0M New Zealand dollars, or 14.0%, to reach 6.1B New Zealand dollars, while imports rose by 1.6B New Zealand dollars, or 24 0%, amounting to 8.3B New Zealand dollars, and thus the trade deficit rose to –2.1B New Zealand dollars. Traditionally, the highest growth in the structure of imports was shown by fuel prices, which increased by 44.0%, and in the structure of exports, livestock products kept leadership, adding 34.0% in value.

The trading instrument left the global downward channel on the daily chart, having confidently consolidated above the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 0.619, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.603, 0.577​

 

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GBPJPY Technical Analysis

The GBPJPY pair provided new bullish rally yesterday, to touch 168.3 level and confirm its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias by moving away from the additional support at 166.8, reminding you that the fluctuation within the bullish channel and the major indicators that provide the positive momentum allow us to suggest more bullish attempts, to surpass 169 obstacle and move towards the next main station at 170.2.

The expected trading range for today is between 167.40 and 169, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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EURJPY Provides Positive Signal

The EURJPY pair stared today by forming bullish wave, surpassing 145.65 barrier to hint getting rid of the negative pressures and start resuming the main bullish attack on the near term and medium term period. In case the price got a positive close above the breached barrier and getting continuous positive momentum by the major indicators, we expect to target 146.20 followed by reaching 147.1 levels, while turning back to fluctuate below 145.65 might force it to suffer some losses by crawling towards 144.5.

The expected trading range for today is between 145.5 and 146.2, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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Gold Price Keeps its Negative Stability

Gold price tested 1746.40 level and kept its stability below it, to resume the negative trades and attempts to move away from this level, which keeps the correctional bearish trend valid, waiting to test 1721.65 as a next main target. The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1746.4 – 1754 levels and holding above them.

The expected trading range for today is between 1715 support and 1750 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

 

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Silver Price Tests the Key Resistance

Silver price continued to rise to test 21.30 resistance line, and bounced downwards clearly from there, to support the continuation of the bearish trend domination, waiting to test 20.72 level initially, which breaking it represents the key to rally towards 20.25 as a next correctional target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless the price rallied to breach 21.30 and hold above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 20.50 support and 21.30 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

 

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Gold hovers near two-week lows ahead of Fed's minutes

Gold prices settled in European trade in a tight range of trading near two-week lows as investors shun new positions ahead of the Fed's last meeting minutes. The minutes will provide clues on the future of US monetary policy and the pace of interest rates.


Prices Today
Gold prices traded around $1,738 an ounce as of 08:55 GMT, with a session-high at $1,745. Gold prices closed Tuesday over 0.1% higher, the first profit in five sessions away from two-week lows at $1,732.50.

The Fed

As of 19:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November 1-2 meeting, at which policy makers voted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row to 4%, the highest since December 2007. The Fed asserted back then the fight against inflation requires continuous increases in borrowing rates until consumer prices are brought under control.

Interest Rate Prospects
Markets now are pricing a 75% chance of a 0.5% rate hike in December, and a 25% chance of a 0.75% rate hike.

Estimates
Markets remain a bit jittery ahead of Fed's minutes, with some analysts expecting some modest gains for gold prices until year's end as the dollar weakens gradually.

The SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.87 tones yesterday, the second increase in a row to a total of 906.93 tones, the highest since November 14.​

 

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XRPUSD - Authorities are preparing to introduce restrictions for the crypto sector

In general, the market remains negatively affected by the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, which continues to cause an outflow of investors' funds from digital assets and may lead to the introduction of restrictions for cryptocurrency entrepreneurship by the authorities. It should be noted that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Deputy Governor of the Bank of England John Cunliffe have already spoken out for the soonest strengthening of regulation of the sector, and representatives of the American Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) have announced an audit of the advertising policy of companies. The current market situation is pushing global regulators to designate clearer rules of operation, but some experts believe that they will only complicate the business conditions for many projects.

Technically, the price has reversed from the 0.3418 mark (Murray [-1/8]) and is aiming for the 0.3906 level (Murray [0/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), which is the key for the "bulls". In case of its breakout, the growth may continue to the levels of 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%) and 0.4630. The most important level for the "bears" remains 0.3418, a breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to the area of 0.3165 (November lows), 0.2930 (Murray [-2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4330, 0.4630 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.3165, 0.2930.​

 

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EURUSD - Strong business activity statistics supported the position of the euro

Yesterday, data on business activity in the leading sectors of the EU economy were presented, which was positive for the first time since the end of summer. Thus, Manufacturing PMI in France rose to 49.1 points from 47.2 points earlier, and in Germany – to 46.7 points from 45.1 points, while Manufacturing PMI in the EU amounted to 47.3 points, higher than 46.4 points earlier. As for Services PMI, the upward dynamics here were slightly restrained: in France, the indicator consolidated around 49.4 points, which was lower than 51.7 points earlier, and in Germany, it was 46.4 points against 46.5 points in the month previously. The Composite index for EU countries remained at 48.6 points.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, confidently approaching the local highs of the last week around 1.0485. Technical indicators have long since reversed upwards and are strengthening their signal.

Support levels: 1.0328, 1.0095 | Resistance levels: 1.0485, 1.0780​

 

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Euro hovers near four-month high on US interest rate prospects

Euro rose in European trade against a basket of major rivals for the third straight session against dollar, almost hitting four-month highs amid fading concerns about the widening policy gap between the US and Europe. The dollar fell to near three-month lows under pressure from Fed's minutes, which bolstered the case for a 0.5% rate hike in December.

EURUSD rose 0.5% to 1.0448, after closing up 0.9% yesterday, the second profit in a row, as risk appetite improved.

Four-Month Peak

Euro hit four-month highs at 1.0481 on November 15 before entering a descending wave on profit-taking.
Current gains amid fading concerns about the policy gaps between the US and Europe, with the ECB expected to increase interest rates by 75 basis points in December.
It's now also widely expected the Fed will increase rates by only 0.5% next month instead of 0.75%.


The Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.4% on Thursday, sharpening losses for the third day in a row, and hitting three-month lows at 105.34 against a basket of major rivals.
Fed's minutes yesterday showed US policymakers are content about the slowdown in inflation, and are moving toward smaller rate hikes.​

 

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GBPUSD - Statistics from the US again disappointed investors

The pound is actively gaining in value after the publication of data on business activity in the leading sectors of the economy and the depreciation of the US currency, currently trading around 1.2110.

Thus, UK Manufacturing PMI in November consolidated at 46.2 points, which exceeded the analysts' forecast of 45.7 points, and Service PMI amounted to 48.8 points, improving the analysts' forecast of 48.0 points. The Composite PMI rose to 48.3 from 48.2 in October, the first monthly increase since June.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves within the local rising channel, reaching the resistance line at 1.2200 yesterday, and technical indicators are preparing for a local correction.

Support levels: 1.1958, 1.163 | Resistance levels: 1.2220, 1.2590​

 

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ADAUSD - Murrey analysis

The ADAUSD pair continues to trade within the medium-term downward channel, where it returned at the beginning of this month: at the weekend, the price reached the year’s lows around 0.2945 but is currently trying to restore positions. However, the upside potential is limited by strong resistance 0.3418 (Murrey level [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands, the upper border of the downwards channel).

In general, the downward trend in the market continues, which is signaled by a downward reversal of Stochastic and stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone. Under these conditions, the key “bearish” level is 0.2929 (Murrey level [0/8]). The consolidation below it allows a decline to 0.2685 (Murrey level [−1/8]) and 0.2441 (Murrey level [−2/8]). In general, the resumption of the cryptocurrency decline soon seems more likely.

Resistance levels: 0.3173, 0.3418 | Support levels: 0.2929, 0.2685, 0.2441​

 

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USDJPY suffers strong losses

The USDJPY pair suffered strong losses yesterday, as it broke 140.75 level strongly and declined to surpass 139.45 level, which pushed the price to resume the bearish wave on the short term basis, paving the way to achieve new negative targets that start at 137.60 and extend to 136.5.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today unless the price managed to breach 139.45 and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between 137.60 support and 139.60 resistance, the expected trend for today is Bearish.

 

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CAC 40 - French stock market continues to rise actively

French companies continue to demonstrate fairly strong financial results, despite another decline in business activity in the country: in November, the figure corrected from 103 points to 101 points against the forecast of 102.0 points. However, at the moment, the attention of investors is drawn to the statement of representatives of the automotive corporation Renault Group on the conclusion of cooperation with the energy companies Engie SA, Voltalia SA and Electricite de France SA for a 15-year supply of electricity from renewable sources, which can cover up to 50% of the needs of the automaker in the country. Recently, the issue of decarbonization of production in France has been quite acute, and reports of a deal may cause approval from the environmental community, allowing the issuer to attract additional investment.



On the daily chart, CAC 40 quotes continue to trade above the resistance line of the descending corridor, and the technical indicators strengthen the buy signal.

Support levels: 6610, 6340 | Resistance levels: 6800, 7160​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates within tight track since morning, which keeps the bullish trend scenario valid as it is without any change, depending on the price stability above 1.1990, supported by stochastic approach to the oversold areas, reminding you that we are waiting to rally towards our next positive target that reaches 1.2260.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2030 support and 1.2210 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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Gold Technical Analysis

Gold price tests the key support 1746.4 and keeps its stability above it until now, which keeps the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, waiting to resume the bullish bias to visit 1765 initially. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1746.4 and holding below it will stop the positive scenario and push the price back to the correctional bearish track again, to head towards testing 1721.65 areas initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1735 support and 1775 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

 

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Dollar on track for weekly losses on Fed rates

Dollar fell in European trade on Friday against a basket of major rivals, extending the gains for the fourth day in a row, and almost hitting three-month lows, and on track for the second weekly loss in three weeks following weak US data and the release of Fed's minutes. Such Fed minutes clearly bolstered the case for a 0.5% rate hike in December and a slower pace of policy tightening.

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.25% to 105.68, with a session-high at 106.16, after closing down 0.2% yesterday, the third loss in a row, edging near three-month lows at 105.34. Dollar is now down 1.2% so far this week on track for the second weekly loss in three weeks.

Weak Data

Recent US data showed manufacturing and services activities tumbled heavily in November, hinting at potential economic recession in the fourth quarter of the year.


The Fed

Fed's minutes released for the November 1-2 meeting showed most policymakers agreed it's important to slow down the pace of policy tightening.


Fed Minutes

Chances for a 0.5% rate hike in December by the Fed rose from 75% to 85% after Fed's minutes, while chances for a 0.75% rate hike fell from 25% to 15%.​

 

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AUDUSD - Australian economy shows signs of decline

The reason for the negative dynamics was poor macroeconomic data: according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail turnover in October fell by 0.2% after rising by 0.6% in September, which was the first decline since falling by 4.1% in December 2021 and is a consequence of the weakening in all leading industries, except for products retail trade. The leaders of the negative movement were department stores, which lost 2.4%, closely followed by the clothing trade sector (–2.0%), and for the first time since January, the indicators of restaurants and cafes decreased (–0.4%). ABS Head of Retail Statistics Ben Dorber said the correction results from higher interest rates and could be long-term.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving in a downward channel, and after reaching the resistance line, a reversal begins to form. The technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970 | Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410​

 

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Crude Oil Price Suffers Strong Losses

Crude oil price ended last Friday with strong negativity to settle at 76.05 level, starting today with additional strong decline to break the mentioned level and reach 74 areas now, which pushes the price to suffer more expected losses in the upcoming period, opening the way to head towards 72.60 areas as a next main station.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, taking into consideration that breaching 76.05 will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to attempt to recover again.

The expected trading range for today is between 72 support and 75.7 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​