Solid ECN | Professional Market Analysis | *Video*

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USDJPY - The epidemiological situation in Japan is rapidly deteriorating​

According to the World Health Organization, Japan has come out on top in the world in terms of the daily increase in the incidence of coronavirus. More than 200.0K cases of infection were registered yesterday, which has already become the reason for limiting the work of several large industries. The country is fighting the seventh wave of the pandemic. The country's southernmost prefecture, Okinawa, has been hardest hit by the new outbreak, according to authorities, but Tokyo, Osaka, and Hokkaido prefectures in the far north are also on the rise. However, the government does not intend to introduce strict quarantine restrictions soon, citing low mortality and urging the population to get vaccinated. Macroeconomic indicators also show negative dynamics, with the leading indicators index down 1.7% after rising 2.1% in June, and foreign investment in Japanese stocks fell to 298.1B yen this week from 475.0B yen earlier.

The trading instrument is within the global uptrend, declining to the support line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, which is actively weakening: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range narrows and the AO oscillator histogram forms new downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 134.74, 132.16 | Resistance levels: 136.86, 139.34​

 

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XAUUSD - Investors turn to gold in anticipation of a US recession

Investors continue to monitor the economic situation in the US. Today, data on Q2 GDP will be presented, and preliminary estimates of experts have recorded a resumption of positive dynamics, reaching a value of 0.5% after falling by 1.6% in the previous period. However, since the publication of statistics for the first quarter, US Federal Reserve officials raised the interest rate by 1.50%, and inflation accelerated from 7.0% to 9.1%, which is completely contrary to positive forecasts. Traders are focused on the comments of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who will make a speech immediately after the release. Earlier, the official stated the need to reduce inflation, considering preserving a strong economy. While a recession is becoming inevitable, she says there are no signs of a downturn.



On the daily chart, the formation of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 1800 – 1650 continues, and now the price is growing towards the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming new rising bars.

Support levels: 1717, 1681 | Resistance levels: 1752, 1808​

 

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General Electric - Growth on the back of a strong quarterly report​

The company's financial report for the second quarter exceeded analysts' expectations, allowing the issuer's shares to consolidate in an uptrend. Thus, the total volume of orders amounted to 18.7B dollars, which is 2% higher than the same period a year earlier, and the volume of organic orders increased by 4.0%. Total GAAP revenue was recorded at 18.6B dollars, up 2% from last year. Adjusted revenue beat market estimates for the first time in the last six quarters, standing at 17.9B dollars versus 17.30B dollars expected. GAAP adjusted earnings per share were 0.78 dollars. In their full-year forecast for 2022, General Electric Co. expects earnings per share to remain at the lower end of the 2.8–3.5 dollars per share range.

The asset is being corrected within the global downward channel, moving away from the support line. The technical indicators reversed and gave a new buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the buy zone and is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 67.25, 60.1 | Resistance levels: 73.3, 85.2​

 

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NZDUSD, H4​

On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6223, a Marubozu pattern is forming, signaling that the buyers have seized the initiative. The appearance of two Hammer patterns also confirms the strengthening of the "bullish" sentiment. In the current situation, the continuation of the upward trend towards the resistance level of 0.6371 is possible, consolidation of the price above which will allow the asset to recover lost positions and head to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711. If the "bears" break the support level of 0.6223, the negative dynamics will develop to 0.5920.

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NZDUSD, D1​

On the daily chart, there is a falling Wedge price pattern, from where the price of the trading instrument went upwards. Its development has not yet been completed, and the upward dynamics of quotations are intensifying. It is confirmed by forming a series of Hammer reversal patterns, signaling the bottom has been reached. Currently, the price is trying to break the resistance level of 0.6371. If successful, the quotes will continue to move to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711.

Support levels: 0.6223, 0.6106, 0.592 | Resistance levels: 0.6371, 0.6541, 0.6711

 

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The shares of Alcoa, an American steel company, are correcting around 50.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price left the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries at 23 – 47, having broken the resistance line at 46 yesterday and consolidated in an uptrend. On a four-hour chart, it is seen that further global dynamics will most likely continue within an uptrend, and the May low at 53.7 is the key resistance, consolidation above which will allow the instrument to strengthen its positions.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a new buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the buy zone, continuing to form rising bars.​

 

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The shares of Walmart, the US company that operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, are in the 132 area.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 120–135. On a four-hour chart, the asset approached the solid resistance line of the 134 range, formed at the end of January 2022, and continued growth is possible only if the quotes consolidate above it.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the corrective upward dynamics, holding a buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms ambiguous bars in the buying zone.​

 

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Last week, the BTCUSD pair had ambiguous dynamics.

First, the price fell to the 22200 area due to fears of a sharp increase in interest rates and the "hawkish" rhetoric from US Federal Reserve officials, as inflation in the country reached a record level of 9.1%. The regulator's decision was restrained, the interest rate was raised only by 75 basis points, and the head of the department, Jerome Powell, acknowledged the possibility of a further slowdown in its growth, which provoked a positive trend in "digital gold." The following data on the US gross domestic product (GDP) decline in the second quarter by 0.9%, which means the beginning of a technical recession in the US economy, contributed to an even greater decline in the dollar and the strengthening of alternative assets. Investors have again turned to cryptocurrencies as shelter assets, fearing worsening economic problems, which has caused enthusiasm among members of the digital community. Thus, the CEO of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, said in an interview with CNBC that the current increase in inflation, along with the decline in the world's leading economies, could lead to further popularization of digital assets. The businessman also considers holding the important mark of 20000 by the price as a positive moment, from which the beginning of a new growth cycle is possible.

However, the current situation does not yet mean a reversal of the long-term downtrend since the US Federal Reserve, despite the likely slowdown in monetary policy tightening, will not completely abandon it, and the final quarterly US GDP data may turn out to be better than the preliminary ones, which will once again force investors to buy the dollar.

The price corrected downwards from the area of 24600, but for a serious decline, it needs to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger bands around 22400. In this case, the quotes will be able to drop to 20000 (bottom line of Bollinger bands) and 18750. Otherwise, growth will resume to 25000 and 28125. Technical indicators suggest that the short-term uptrend will continue, as Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, while Stochastic is leaving the overbought zone, but so far, the downside potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 22400, 20000, 18750​

 

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The shares of Caterpillar, a global manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, are trading within a global corrective trend, around 194.

On the daily chart of the asset, a global Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 165–250 is forming, within which an upward wave with the target near the resistance line around 250 develops. A reversal has formed on the four-hour chart, and there is no doubt that the upward dynamics will continue. Since the current wave is the seventh, the probability of quotes going beyond the lower border of the pattern around 165 is extremely small.

It is confirmed by technical indicators that have reversed and are holding a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line and began to expand the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars in the buy zone.​

 

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Gold is correcting at 1774 amid strengthening of the downtrend of the US dollar, which fell from 108 to 105 in the USD Index, acting as a catalyst for the movement of capital into safe-haven assets.

Swap dealers have seen a record liquidation of short positions since the week before last, and the continuation of this trend may mean that the trend in gold is likely to change soon. The report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also showed a decrease of 5.153K contracts in this category, which significantly reduced the difference in the accumulated positions. Now buyers have 92.205K contracts, and sellers have 174.234K contracts.

The situation on the gold market is developing in such a way that the balance of sellers and buyers may soon change in favor of the latter. At the very least, the number of general speculative positions backed by money obviously slowed down the decline: if in early July they were adjusted by an average of 15 - 20K contracts per week, last week the reduction was only 2.3K contracts.

On the global chart of the asset, the formation of a wide descending channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650 continues, and now the price is making its first attempt to overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost approached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1753, 1696 | Resistance levels: 1787, 1847​

 

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Nasdaq 100 - Correction in the dollar is a catalyst for the growth of the stock market

As for the corporate segment, it is not planned to publish new financial reports of companies until Wednesday, but investors are assessing the impact of the fundamental background on the issuers' quotes. Thus, the shares of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. showed rapid growth amid reports that the specialists of three factories for the production of military aircraft in Missouri decided to postpone their strike, as management presented new terms of the working contract. The growth is also shown in the stocks of the largest Chinese company operating in the field of Internet commerce, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., after the negative regarding the possible delisting of the company from the NYSE exchange was leveled.

The situation in the domestic bond market, where the downward correction continues, also contributes to the growth of stock indices. Thus, the yield rate on popular 10-year securities is 2.543% and today it is decreasing by 2.39%, and the yield on conservative 20-year bonds has dropped to 3.069%, having lost 1.55% since the beginning of trading.

The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator continue to stay above the signal line and expand the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is steadily increasing in the buy zone.

Support levels: 1268, 11810 | Resistance levels: 13090, 13880​

 

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ETHUSD - The decline may continue​

This week, the ETHUSD pair is correcting downwards, losing the positions won last week, against the background of a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the USA and the expectation of an early transition of the Ethereum network to the PoS proof algorithm.

Experts note that there is "fatigue" in the market from the constant news about the approaching merger of the Ethereum 1.0 and Ethereum 2.0 networks. Most investors have already put money in the purchase of ETH and are now waiting for an immediate update, which is scheduled for mid-September. Up to this point, observers do not rule out the continuation of the pair's decline or its consolidation.

In addition, the overall pressure on the market is exerted by monetary factors. Despite the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes, which was mentioned last week by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell, the regulator will not give up tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and will spend it for a considerable time, strengthening the position of the US currency in relation to competitors.

The price has corrected to the area of 1570, but for further serious decline it will need to consolidate below the strong support level of 1500 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%). In this case, the reduction targets will be 1375 and 1250. The key for the "bulls" remains the level of 1750, the breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth to the levels of 1875 (, Fibo retracement 38.2%), 2000, and 2125.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1875, 2000, 2125 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​

 

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EURUSD - Statistics from the EU prevent further growth of the asset

The German economy is rapidly plunging into a crisis, and the retail sales volume, which fell into negative territory in June, amounting to –1.6% instead of 1.2% in May, confirms this trend. The indicator has already lost 8.8% YoY, an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Statistics for the euro area show a negative trend: July Manufacturing PMI amounted to 49.8 points, which is lower than 52.1 points in the last month, comparable to the lows of spring 2020.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.041 | Support levels: 1.0115, 0.9951​

 

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Crude Oil - Investors pending OPEC+ decisions​

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will gather for a meeting via videoconference. Investors are watching the upcoming meeting with interest for several reasons. First, a new secretary-general, Haytham Al Ghais will be introduced, succeeding Mohammad Barkindo. The second reason lies in the timing of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement. The fact is that the participating countries plan to reach pre-crisis levels of oil production by September, and in order to meet this deadline, production levels gradually increased to 432 thousand barrels per day in June and up to 648 thousand barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ is currently 2.84 million barrels per day behind schedule, according to the OPEC+ Technical Committee, which could force the organization to take more "hawkish" moves at today's meeting. Almost all parties to the deal are now at the limit of their production capacity, with only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates having spare capacity, which are likely to increase production levels further.

In this regard, there is no need to talk about a stable uptrend. In the event of a change in current plans, one should expect a continuation of a local decline in energy quotations, as world demand is not yet able to cope with such a high supply.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is kept within the local downward channel and may make a new attempt to overcome the support level in the near future.

Support levels: 91.68, 84.1 | Resistance levels: 97.57, 106.74​

 

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ASX 200 - RBA adjusted monetary policy parameters​

Earlier, the Australian regulator adjusted the interest rate by 50 basis points for the third time in a row, bringing it to 1.85%. Thus, the pace of monetary policy tightening has become the maximum since 1990 and, according to the head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, this is not the limit. The current increase is the bank's reaction to inflation, which, according to data for Q2, reached 6.1% in annual terms, having increased by 1.8% compared to Q1. According to Lowe, by the end of this year, we should prepare for the fact that consumer price growth will reach 8.0%.

The price left the limits of the local descending channel and consolidated above the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal for the start of purchases: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are significantly higher than the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars while in the buying zone.

Support levels: 6926, 6712 | Resistance levels: 7045, 7280​

 

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The XRPUSD pair has been growing for three weeks in a row, correcting to a long-term downtrend, and as a result, the cryptocurrency quotes reached two-month highs around 0.406, after which they resumed their decline, dropping to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 0.359, which is the key “bearish” level, which breakdown will allow the trading instrument to continue moving towards 0.3418 (Murrey [6/8]), 0.3174 (Murrey [5/8]), 0.2930 (Murrey [4/8]). The key “bullish” level is 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]), consolidating above which will become a catalyst for upward dynamics around 0.4150 (Murrey [+1/8]), 0.4395 (Murrey [+2/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%.

The short-term uptrend persists, which confirms the upward reversal of Bollinger bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the positive zone. However, a downward reversal of Stochastic does not rule out a reversal of the current trend and the quotes returning to the previously formed sideways range of 0.2930–0.3660.

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.415, 0.4395 | Support levels: 0.359, 0.3418, 0.3174, 0.293​

 

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GBPUSD - Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to continue raising the rate

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651 | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818​

 

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USDCAD - Canadian unemployment forecast to rise

Analysts predict the first increase since May 2021 in the average unemployment rate from 4.9% to 5.0% in July, which may be caused by macroeconomic statistics: for example, business activity in the manufacturing sector in July fell to 52.5 points from 54.6 points a month earlier, and this is the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Also, today will be published June data on building permits issued, the number of which may decrease by 1.5% after May's growth of 2.3%.

The US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index ahead of today's publication of unemployment data: Initial Jobless Claims may slightly increase to 259.0K from 256.0K, and against the background of poor last week's results, even such a slight increase will be perceived positively. Experts also note the negative forecasts regarding Friday's report on employment in the non-agricultural sector, where it is possible to reduce the number of jobs to 250.0K from 372.0K a month earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.26 – 1.32, trading in the middle of the range. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.29, 1.3041 | Support levels: 1.2785, 1.2643​

 

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The shares of Starbucks, one of the largest companies in the world that owns the coffee chain of the same name, are trading around 87.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price has left the global downwards channel, breaking the resistance line at 76 and consolidating above the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 81.6. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the quotes have reached another key level — the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 88.30, consolidation above which will be the main signal for the continuation of the upward trend and reaching full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci at 99.50.

Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a buy signal.
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line and continue to move away from it, while the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the buying zone.​

 

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NZDUSD - New Zealand labor market statistics disappointed investors

The dynamics were largely due to a disappointing report on the labor market in New Zealand: the Q2 unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, although analysts had expected a decline to 3.1%, and the percentage change in employment from the previous quarter did not happen at all with forecasts of growth of 0.4%. According to statistics, the share of the economically active population decreased to 70.80%, while preliminary estimates of the figure were 71.00%. To the labor market, the commodity price index has also shown negative dynamics for the fourth month in a row: the value lost 2.2% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and in such conditions, we cannot speak of stable growth of the NZDUSD pair.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, correcting towards the local resistance. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6329, 0.6556 | Support levels: 0.6238, 0.6061​

 

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Crude Oil - OPEC+ ignores US pressure

Cartel Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said that the increase in production in September by 100 K barrels per day is not a mechanism for influencing oil quotations but acts as a check to ensure a complete balance of supply and demand. According to members of the organization, it is not the oil price that causes much greater concern but the low financing of the oil sector in the world, which this year has decreased from 600 B dollars to 450 B dollars. Thus, according to the results of the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia will increase production by 26.0K barrels per day, and the remaining 48.0K will fall on other members of OPEC+.

Demand for contracts by investors continues to decline gradually, reaching its lowest levels since 2016. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions amounted to only 253.8K compared to 259.3K a week earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel, heading towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal and completely exclude a reversal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 96.48, 105.23 | Support levels: 92.48, 85.60​