Stick to your eye-balling TA. I underestimated it first look many years ago but having been around the block with algos, neural nets etc. I am back where I started, having wasted time and money.
Don't take this the wrong way, I'm not having a pop.
When people fail at something, why dismiss it when there is clear evidence it can work?
If I fail, I will say I failed, I wasn't good enough.
I don't think he probably needs to have. It nearly always boils down to the same thing. You are looking for an edge, you want a system that produces backtested results. You are looking for something then that will be based on historical performance of indicators..
Later on you will then be asking, why doesnt that system work, what are the right parameters for that indicator to work..possibly go down the route of optimisation, still with even worse results would be the guess.
You look for something else..etc etc ad infinitum
THEN, you will realise its not an indicator based system you are looking for after all, as indicators are all lagging and you want to be looking at the price action and there aint no system that can do that for you..just eyeballing and screen time
Thats why PB doesn't need to have seen stratasearch or whatever its called to know you could be barking up the wrong tree.
Try a canned strategy, from a free trial of metastock or omnitrader (100s of canned strategies) that way then you can get some of what I've just said out of your system for nothing. PB is simply sparing you the expense as am I.
Its just a journey many have done before, including myself, thats all. Until the penny drops and you realise actually you could have saved yourself a few years.
But I honestly wish you the very best of luck![]()
You're on the wrong forum with that mindset
Peter
So you did.
Great minds and all that ?
Recently I nearly set out on a Bayesian mission but have thought better of it.
Recently I nearly set out on a Bayesian mission but have thought better of it.
And while everyone agrees that technical indicators are lagging, it doesn't mean they are worthless. When deciding to enter medium term trends (days-weeks) in commodities I find DI-/DI+ (7) and MACD very helpful (if not in contradiction with seasonality amongst others).
Pat and Malaguti, just to clarify, I completely agree on the points you both raise
as in how not to do it.
That is the wrong approach, as you have emphasized.
Its also the one most people take, so that may explain it...
The number of indicators that have any value can be counted on one hand with
fingers to spare, and even then, their value does not lie in their traditional application.
And what about Price Action Lab software itself?
Anyone any experience?
Thanks! Interesting read! Lots of systems developed in the bull market up till 2008 have failed over the last years.
I wonder though if he is right. Reversion to the mean is of course nonsense in a random system but then we know the markets are not completely random.
And what about Price Action Lab software itself?
Anyone any experience?
Yes, I agree on both counts.
The system seems a bit daunting to me, but then I am only beginning in backtesting.
And it would be interesting to see if the double inside day is a reversal or a continuation pattern rather than a bearish pattern. I suspect it is a contunuation pattern but I lack the capability to test this.
If a pattern is a bullish signal for example why would you care if it is reversal or continuation? It is reversal if it reverses and continuation if it continues. TA is tautology like in logic.