Sniper Forex System

[AcuteAngle]

2be - thanks for the comments. I am reading through the thread slowly.

karl6666 - I don't know if you're referring to me, but I'm certainly not too excited by it. It looks promising, but most systems do on paper. I'm no expert trader, but I'm not exactly a novice either.

I purchased it as I thought it looked interesting and could be worthy addition to the arsenal. All my Sniper trades have been in demo mode (2 weeks), but I'm about to trade live with micro lots, as I think live trading is always a better idea, even if the stakes are small.

I will follow the GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP. The only caveat is that I ignore Sniper trades if I have open positions based on other strategies. I will demo trade these ones however.

 

[salvadorveiga]

it looks good on volatile stocks as well...

SID - http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/1858/sidh.png

although i find trading stocks riskier than forex... due to gapdowns

By the way, a tip for you all trend followers if you have access to Euronext the best index I've seen for trends is the Portuguese PSI-20 . That thing trends that is something out of this world ... and there's only 20 main stocks to follow...

 

[forexsniper]

This is a good trend following system. To get profit/s one has to follow trend on a given TF. Good hours for this pair is 7am to 7pm or there about.
One of the simplest and workable explanation of thrend has been written by DiNapoli, and his setup comes with MT4 anyway. Anything below or above the white MA he considers to be trending. His book is easly available, read the first 150+pages.

Sounds interesting...any links to this material you are referring to?

 

[forexsniper]

i disagree... there are also very profitable systems FREELY available out there... why are we not all millionaires? not many people have discipline and don't know to be consistent...

They are all seeking instant gratification... I think trading is pretty much as dieting and exercising... you need to commit and show up everyday and exercise consistently along with dieting...

You see a lot of people join gym's to achieve their dream body, achieving six pack abs etc... they join the gym etc all excited and how easy its going to be... 30 days later they're nowehere to be seen... either lost interest, or didn't see results so gave up right away, or not dieting correctly (we can say this is the money management ) etc...

again it's a matter of consistency consistency consistency... the fact is not many people are able to be consistent over a larger period of time... either they are hopping from system to system or hopping form time frame to time frame etc etc...

spot on mate! i agree

 

[forexsniper]

here here.

i downloaded the demo, to compare with my own thoughts. Im worried when i read of novices, getting to serious in the early stages. I think its £100 - yippee buy it, give a month...

If you could simply buy and sell when it told you so, we would all be trillionaires

K

K

we all have our own trading styles...but just like to mention that gary suggests taking every trade as given by sniper. his results on his website is taking every trade...no second guessing.

i tried to guess which trades to take and which to avoid...i ended up missing some great trends.

i've still to find an indicator to keep me out of chop...if anyone knows of a good method to avoid chop...i'm all ears.

 

[salvadorveiga]

we all have our own trading styles...but just like to mention that gary suggests taking every trade as given by sniper. his results on his website is taking every trade...no second guessing.

i tried to guess which trades to take and which to avoid...i ended up missing some great trends.

i've still to find an indicator to keep me out of chop...if anyone knows of a good method to avoid chop...i'm all ears.

hmmm equity line trading maybe? i've never tried it but it seems to improve results...

or what i said before... using oscillators on the chop

 

[2be]

we all have our own trading styles...but just like to mention that gary suggests taking every trade as given by sniper. his results on his website is taking every trade...no second guessing.

i tried to guess which trades to take and which to avoid...i ended up missing some great trends.

i've still to find an indicator to keep me out of chop...if anyone knows of a good method to avoid chop...i'm all ears.

SMA3 set on close, shift forward 3
This is the set up of the first DiNaploi MA.
If you trade on H1TF use on H1, if you trade shorter TF use the shorter Tf anh H1 TF too.
If you trade H4, use H4 and H1 for pulbacks
Do not go against this SMA, and try to go with it, look at the ATR too, so that you can see a poss daily number of pips still available.
If you obey the rules of this system (sniper) you shall be doing similar things anyway!

 

[forexkunta]

we all have our own trading styles...but just like to mention that gary suggests taking every trade as given by sniper. his results on his website is taking every trade...no second guessing.

i tried to guess which trades to take and which to avoid...i ended up missing some great trends.

i've still to find an indicator to keep me out of chop...if anyone knows of a good method to avoid chop...i'm all ears.

I prefer stochastics to help me identify chop a little sooner. When trending, the signal lines tend to stay close to the top or bottom of the window. When in chop, it moves from top to bottom to top, as the pair moves. But as Sal said earlier, sometimes it comes down to good money management, as chop is still a little hard to identify until you are actually in it, and been in it for a little while. And possibly have lost some pips as a result. The chop last month was pretty devastating on my account and the result was for me to pull back, do some demo trading, studying, and research. That is what all new traders should do in my opinion, before going live and blowing accounts up. But no one would have been able to convince me of that months ago. Experience is most times the very best teacher.
Kent

 

[salvadorveiga]

I prefer stochastics to help me identify chop a little sooner. When trending, the signal lines tend to stay close to the top or bottom of the window. When in chop, it moves from top to bottom to top, as the pair moves. But as Sal said earlier, sometimes it comes down to good money management, as chop is still a little hard to identify until you are actually in it, and been in it for a little while. And possibly have lost some pips as a result. The chop last month was pretty devastating on my account and the result was for me to pull back, do some demo trading, studying, and research. That is what all new traders should do in my opinion, before going live and blowing accounts up. But no one would have been able to convince me of that months ago. Experience is most times the very best teacher.
Kent

Like a kid needs to burn himself on the hot oven until he learns he shouldn't touch it, same way a trader needs to be burnt a few times until he defintely learns ... i had my shares of experience when I started trading...it opened my eyes to money management

 

[GumRai]

Sunnywan,
I think that the only surefire way to avoid the chop is to avoid the market

Still with this adjusting investment level according to the stop.
One of the reasons, I didn't like this idea is because the stop varies during the time the position is opening. Looking back at a few samples, I see that generally the stop gets closer to your entry level, but on occasions it does move further away.
Particularly when you have to use a previous high/low as the stop because there is no sniper stop at the time. So what do you do in situations like this?
If there is no sniper stop and you set the stoploss at the previous high/low - eg 80
When the sniper stop appears it is at 100, this would throw out your risk management calculations, but to adhere to the system, you would have to use the sniper stop.
Quite a rare occurrence I know, so possibly not an issue.

A more common occurrence is the sniper stop and the price moving closer together.
So what do you do if for example -
You enter a position at 1.5600 with the sniper stop at 100, your risk level is 300 Pounds, so you trade at 3 Pounds pp
During the time the position is open, the price moves up/down and returns to your entry level of 1.5600, but the sniper stop is now only 50.
Do you adjust your position to 6 Pounds pp?

 

[2be]

Fx pairs trend well to reach the daily ATR, much of it happens during the London /US session. Once the market declarred its hand, it is usually safe to go for good run, well in excess of 50 pips. It is good to observe the market before London's open and see what is likely to happen. Look at the H1 TF, and the ATR, then act in accordance with this system. I have some other things for early entry, and this system acts as confirmation, but this is a more risky strat.
Just adhere to this system, and good profits shall follow.
I cannot take every signal generated by this system, I only trade LOndon's session and when ATR has been fulfield or I have my pips I just take break and do not worry about missing trades. (I am not slave to trading).
Good pips to everyone, shall post few post from now.
When I trade I do not post, have better things to do, concentrate on the market and my trades + coffee pulbacks, many of them.
May the pips be with you,
2be

 

[forexkunta]

Fx pairs trend well to reach the daily ATR, much of it happens during the London /US session. Once the market declarred its hand, it is usually safe to go for good run, well in excess of 50 pips. It is good to observe the market before London's open and see what is likely to happen. Look at the H1 TF, and the ATR, then act in accordance with this system. I have some other things for early entry, and this system acts as confirmation, but this is a more risky strat.
Just adhere to this system, and good profits shall follow.
I cannot take every signal generated by this system, I only trade LOndon's session and when ATR has been fulfield or I have my pips I just take break and do not worry about missing trades. (I am not slave to trading).
Good pips to everyone, shall post few post from now.
When I trade I do not post, have better things to do, concentrate on the market and my trades + coffee pulbacks, many of them.
May the pips be with you,
2be

I also do not take every trade that is triggered. I will only take trades on GBPUSD in the London session and about half of the NY session.

ON GBPJPY, I will take trades during the last 3-4 hours of Toyoko to about half of the NY session. If I miss good trades outside of those times, oh well. There will be more trades another day. Just don't chase the trades. It will make a loser out of you.
One thing that it took me a while to learn, You don't have to be in a trade all of the time to win. Sometimes, not being in a trade is a winner.

Kent

 

[salvadorveiga]

Sunnywan,
I think that the only surefire way to avoid the chop is to avoid the market

Still with this adjusting investment level according to the stop.
One of the reasons, I didn't like this idea is because the stop varies during the time the position is opening. Looking back at a few samples, I see that generally the stop gets closer to your entry level, but on occasions it does move further away.
Particularly when you have to use a previous high/low as the stop because there is no sniper stop at the time. So what do you do in situations like this?
If there is no sniper stop and you set the stoploss at the previous high/low - eg 80
When the sniper stop appears it is at 100, this would throw out your risk management calculations, but to adhere to the system, you would have to use the sniper stop.
Quite a rare occurrence I know, so possibly not an issue.

A more common occurrence is the sniper stop and the price moving closer together.
So what do you do if for example -
You enter a position at 1.5600 with the sniper stop at 100, your risk level is 300 Pounds, so you trade at 3 Pounds pp
During the time the position is open, the price moves up/down and returns to your entry level of 1.5600, but the sniper stop is now only 50.
Do you adjust your position to 6 Pounds pp?

it doesn't vary (if it is what i think you're saying..)... of course you have to use data from already closed candles... for example don't use the ATR of the current candle... use form the previous closed candle... if you're talkin about slippage... there's no method on to avoid that... sometimes the time you make the calculations you may get a worse fill (more distance on fill to the stop) or it can work on your favour as well... i always add a few pips on my calcs in order to account for possible slippage... don't use the current stop from sniper stop use the previous stop... because on the current candle is always changing as you say...

when the sniper stops still aren't on the side of the signals just use a meaningful high/low

 

[pircj]

Hi Trendie,
can you let us know the extent of your modification of the original system and what exactly did you do and why?

Thanks,

Jerry

It's good to have a long-running thread that is positive about a paid-for system.

Just to echo 2bes positive comments, I think its a pretty good all-round system.

I think it's a good system to make money while you learn about the market.
So good, in fact, I wrote to Gary extolling the usefulness of Sniper.
Typical of me, the first thing I did was modify it to my own needs.

Keep up the positive work, and the number-crunching.
Keep posting real-time trades, and real-time analysis; it's important to see what you think you see as it happens, as compared to a back-test where you fool yourself into believing you would have got it right each time, or fool yourself into thinking you wouldn't have sweated so much with a losing trade!

 

[pircj]

Hi Kunta,
can you let us know your results on the two lot strategy?

And, do you put BE+5 on the second trade when first trade reaches 75 pips or 100pips? What is you historical observation on that? Which works better?

I like the Gumrai's idea, to close first trade at 80pips for example, when you reach 100pips and let the other run...

GumRai,
I would have to say that the number of wins verus losses really doesn't matter as much as how much in $ you are taking home, or the number of pips won. If I have 5 losses and 10 wins but my losses exceed my wins, then what is the point. If I cannot get positive pips, then system is not sound. Now, if I go in with 2 trades at each signal, and close one at 50, 75, or 100, and I lose on the otherby 30 or 40 pips, then I have done what I started out to do, which is being positive. Otherwise, I have blown my account and that is very counter-productive.

I still have to refer back to one of Gary's books, that comes with the purchased Sniper, which states, "Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. It is a moral killer".

By going in with more than one trade, like greenfield and myself, and taking profit at say 75, then you feel alot more comfortable letting the other trade run. Personally, I have started changing my s/l on the open trade to break even +5 after the first trade closes at 75. If the market turns, then I still win. I am here to win! Period!!!!
If it takes me a little longer to get there that way, then so be it. watching a trade to go 100+pips and then turn and go negative, really really pisses me off. Why let it do it!

Usually the most that a trade on GBPUSD or GBPGPY retraces is around 60-70 pips, but on a trend change b/e =5 at 100pips profit is enough to let the trade breath. Not always, but most of the time. I am worried about most of the time more. But the b/e +5 takes care of "not always".
Kunta

 

[pircj]

Hi Salvador,
you use Sniper live? One (mini) lot only? How is it going? Any modifications to the system?

I just started live, with 0.1 lot and stops at Sniper Stop or latest significant low/high.

Jerry

if the stop loss is larger you buy less...

Stop loss cannot be a fixed distance since volatility in the market is always changing... therefore you need to constantly change where you put your stops, if you always use for example 20 pips all the time you'll be killed over time.

Maybe 20 pips were enough 2 years ago, but now that volatility is high 20 pips is nothing, so you have to constantly change it.

Take for example the turtle method where their stops were a volatility measure of 2N, where N was the ATR of the previous 20 session. If ATR was 115 pips, then they would put their stops at 230 pips away.

Your risk is always the same no matter where the stop loss is... my stop can be 10 pips away or 1000 pips away and my risk is the same: 1%.

Let's take an example you have an account of 10,000 USD.

You want to trade GBPUSD stop loss at 45 pips risking 1%.

10,000 USD * 0.01 /0.0045 = 100 USD / 0.0045 = 22,222 USD position size.

Therefore you'd buy with a 45 pip stop loss a position size worth 22,222 USD. If your stop loss was hit, you'd lose 100 USD.

Now let's imagine your stop loss is 300 pips.

100 USD (1% of your account) / 0.0300 = 3333,33

a position size of only 3333 USD if you had been taken out you'd lose again just the 1% = 100 USD.

The furthest away a stop loss is the smaller your position size... the closer it is to your entry point the biggest it is your position.

This enables you to face your system and your bottom line in terms of R's. Where your trades are measured in terms of multiples of R (R is amount risked) ... the stop loss is meaningless when it comes to position sizing, it serves as protection and to assess the question of "How much?"

as far as getting out of the trades at certain levels such as +50 pips or +75, scaling out of the position, my testing on Sniper and not just on sniper but on other systems that i trade myself (mostly trend following), I've always come to the conclusion from the data that this on the long run caps the potential of your profits and is better to let it ride... I know it's tough to let a big actual win to evaporate and turn out to be a minor win... but I feel comfortable on doing it because long term I know my expectancy is higher than someone that scales out of their position, although probably I would have to endure more pain, or at least my gains wouldn't be as consistent.

For newbies I agree that probably the scaling out is a good idea, since psychologically it can affect you and it is easier on us to feel rewarded on a more consistent basis...

but that's just me, I have the philosophy of when I go to the plate I'll swing hard and expect for some home runs and good swings

 

[pircj]

Hi Salvador,
which ATRs (period, multiplier, what price) you use on Cable?

Thanks,

Jerry

because markets change, volatility is always changing... so what looks to be a good stop loss now in more volatile environments you'll be stopped out over and over... and in more calm environments probably that stop loss would be too large and you wouldn't fullfill all potential of the system to collect profits...

So with a fixed stop loss since markets change due to volatility (we can talk of any timeframe, volatility in 1H timeframe is always changing as well just pull up an ATR or something) you may be in the right side of the trend but you'll be out over and over due to bad stop placement... money management here won't save you, being stopped out a over and over with money management would only make you lose money slower than without money management.

of course you could say to go then with a very large stop loss, but then it would be counter productive to the system since you could deploy bigger positions risking the same % capital.

I for instance use some multiple of ATR on my systems. I rarely get stopped out, i only get stopped out when a trend changes or someting... i rarely get stopped out on those consolidations of the trend or in more volatile periods during a trend due to stops being to close... usually it happens we having a stop close and getting stopped out in the middle of the trend just for it to continue without us... i would say with this approach i rarely rarely get stopped out due to those reasons...

btw a friend of mine was the other day telling me this story, this regarding position sizing and stops... this guy is a professional... he's probably in my opinion the best trader i have been able to talk with and i put him side by side with the great names such as Seykota and Bill Dunn, his mechanical systems are a delight to be seen..anyways he was telling me a friend of his approached him with his system and in 1 year he transformed 20k or 30k i don't remember to 120k more or less...

This friend of mine told him "I won't congratulate you... by using fixed lots you lost an incredible opportunity and instead of having 120k on your account by following a fixed fraction approach you'd have 7 times more capital..."

Have a great weekend

Best,

Sal

 

[pircj]

Entry Short

Entry Short at 1.6506
SL at 1.6552 (46pips)

current profit 6 pips, max profit so far 13 pips, drawdown so far 12 pips).

 

[new2fx]

Hello snipers !

I will wait for cable to break trough Monthlypivot(1.6475) and weeklypivotr(1.6468) before considering a sell.

 

[new2fx]

short cable at 1.6460 SL 1.6527 tp :1.6410