SLAyers' Notes

[mckaldey]

It amazes me again and again how these level work...

When price hit the range low early during the EU morning, there was the opportunity to go long with a potential level above to test - the midpoint of the hinge, where it just turned and offered another opportunity.

It seems that I have no problems to locate these levels, but specially if it comes down to reversals in ranges, I have a bit of trouble to trade them. Even if they very often offer the best opportunities. For sure the 5sec comes in handy here - and trust in AMT...

 

[dbphoenix]

It amazes me again and again how these level work...

When price hit the range low early during the EU morning, there was the opportunity to go long with a potential level above to test - the midpoint of the hinge, where it just turned and offered another opportunity.

It seems that I have no problems to locate these levels, but specially if it comes down to reversals in ranges, I have a bit of trouble to trade them. Even if they very often offer the best opportunities. For sure the 5sec comes in handy here - and trust in AMT...

As you've discovered, certain things become clear to those who work with this as opposed to those who just read about it, particularly when one looks at how traders behave at these levels live rather than rely on static charts.

At critical levels, traders are going to spend a lot of time searching for equilibrium, which in many respects means trying to figure out what all the other major players are going to do. They can do this in ranges or via hinges. If the range is very narrow, the range itself represents equilibrium. If the range is wide, the median represents equilibrium and traders trade around that, with the median representing "value". The hinge, as I wrote in Appendix A, represents a focused and concentrated effort to find equilibrium given that it has an endpoint (rectangles can go on forever). Thus one has days that are a perpetual search for equilibrium with hinge after hinge after hinge and box after box after box. Annoying as hell, but they eventually resolve themselves into a trend day.

In terms of simplicity and utility, Wyckoff has a better handle on AMT than modern practitioners with their extraordinarily complicated softwares.

Db

 

[Gring0]

Daily: Approaching SL and potential horizontal resistance. LSH was surpassed but price seems to be finding it tougher to progress easily beyond 4100. Also of note is 4086 being a 50% level.

Hourly: SL broken. Price held 4060 and is heading back up towards 4100.

Analysis: 4100 poses interesting questions for traders. Price did show inability to go higher around there. Nothing to do until a failure around 4085-4100 area or a break above it.

Gringo

p.s I am unable to see my posted charts. Seems like they are there but not showing. Will check back later.

 

[Gring0]

NQ Daily bar is showing something that the hourly isn't. This is from Feb 16. The open is at the lowest point while this wasn't the case as far as I can recall from yesterday. Do any of you out there have paid data provider showing the same thing? I am only using free charts for this. On the daily the price opened around 4070 but the daily is showing it to have opened around 4020. I am attaching the chart to highlight the gap down open that never transpired.

The hourly price never went below 4045. Perhaps it's due to closing or opening times of daily not matching but I have not experienced something like this before.

Gringo

 

[Kleft]

NQ Daily bar is showing something that the hourly isn't. This is from Feb 16. The open is at the lowest point while this wasn't the case as far as I can recall from yesterday. Do any of you out there have paid data provider showing the same thing? I am only using free charts for this. On the daily the price opened around 4070 but the daily is showing it to have opened around 4020. I am attaching the chart to highlight the gap down open that never transpired.

The hourly price never went below 4045. Perhaps it's due to closing or opening times of daily not matching but I have not experienced something like this before.

Gringo

I don't know what your chart counts as a session, when I compare it to my historical chart setting my 16th bar is exactly the same, but, I don't have the 14th and 15th as separate bars and it looks like you do.

I'm not 100% sure but it looks like your charts have counted Sunday and Monday as separate sessions and then swept those movements into the 16th bar as well as it is the first full session of the week. Price opened Sunday at 4022 and has not been as low since.

Comparison of historical v intraday daily charts.

 

[dbphoenix]

I haven't seen mention of short covering anywhere, but I have a lot of stuff on ignore. So I'll point out to those who've never seen this that short covering isn't real buying; it's "buying" what you've sold, the result of which is that you're holding nothing. Therefore there's virtually nothing supporting the market.

One can't know except in hindsight, but if he trades as usual, without bias, there will be no surprises.

Db

 

[mckaldey]

But on the other hand after one has bought he becomes a seller...or holds supply...

Did I got this right?

It's all a bit academic anyway, isn't it?

 

[dbphoenix]

But on the other hand after one has bought he becomes a seller...or holds supply...

Did I got this right?

It's all a bit academic anyway, isn't it?

No, once the short is covered, he's not holding anything.

As to whether it's academic or not, that would depend on how one views support and resistance.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

For the record, this is why it's important to know what a short-covering rally is.

 

[EldnitJ]

For the record, this is why it's important to know what a short-covering rally is.

Would you care to expand on this Db? Not sure what it is you are saying.

 

[dbphoenix]

Would you care to expand on this Db? Not sure what it is you are saying.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp

 

[EldnitJ]

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp

I know what short covering is, I was referring to your chart specifically. I don't understand the correlation between a short covering rally and the chart you posted.

 

[dbphoenix]

I know what short covering is, I was referring to your chart specifically. I don't understand the correlation between a short covering rally and the chart you posted.

The short-covering rally occurred during the previous day. What is most likely to happen after a short-covering rally?

 

[EldnitJ]

The short-covering rally occurred during the previous day. What is most likely to happen after a short-covering rally?

A continuation of previous direction but I noticed volume yesterday was even weaker than the rally, not sure what that means, if anything, just yet.

 

[Gring0]

NQ Daily: 4300/7
NQ Hourly: DL intact. Price trending up.

Gringo

 

[Gring0]

NQ Daily: Price approaching 4300/7 area.
NQ 60m : DL intact.
NQ 05m : DL intact.

Analysis: Demand is strong so far. Price is approaching area of interest. If demand persists there's nothing to do. If demand falters and DL's start getting breached there might be something to do.

Gringo

 

[Gring0]

So far the lines have kept me from making a fool of myself. No extra-human effort required to figure out the intentions of demand or supply. Lines are going up and there's no breach. Back to work. Simple.

In the past, I would looked at 2% rise and thought of shorting, then at 2.5% would probably have shorted. At 3% another re-short. Eventually, I would have puked it all out, hating myself for not following the trend, and acting like such a fool. Even in the past I knew about the trend and that it's our friend!

These lines though are more concrete and like a door in the wall. When the door is barred, I now simply wait for it to open. No need to bang my head against it in hopes of breaking through to the other side.

Gringo

 

[Gring0]

Daily: Up trend. Price taking a breather.
Hourly: Price is in a TR.
Analysis: Nothing to do. Looking for failure of price around LSH on daily (TR top hourly). Today's rejection around 4353 was strong. Lets see how it develops.
Emotions: I am noticing having some bias for the short side. Will have to rely on lines to keep the head in the game. TR is clear enough for now.

Gringo

 

[Gring0]

NQ Channel

NQ Daily: Clear up trend channel. Price around the median.
NQ Hourly: Price around the mean of TR.

 

[Gring0]

NQ hourly: Price in TR and at lower end. A bounce here or a break out to the downside?

Gringo