Simple Cable + Euro breakouts journal (no indicators)

[alexaherself]

Thank you - and to you!

The trailing stop is new to me, to be honest. I normally put stops above/under resistance/support when I can, and adjust them as I go along.

I don't like the whole idea of "automation", really - I've always thought trading requires attention. So this is a weird experiment to me ... but I thought I'd try it in the general interests of saving a bit, on average, when there's a reversal, and seeing what effect it might have. Rightly or wrongly, as they say.

 

[robster970]

Is it an automated trail or are you trailing manually based upon where the market has traded?

 

[alexaherself]

Thursday 6th June

Cable: high 1.54676, low 1.54342
Long entry 1.54701, TP 1.54911, TS 21 pips
Short entry 1.54317, TP 1.54107, TS 21 pips

Euro: high 1.31690, low 1.30912
Long entry 1.31715, TP 1.31895, TS 18 pips
Short entry 1.30887, TP 1.30707, TS 18 pips

 

[alexaherself]

Is it an automated trail or are you trailing manually based upon where the market has traded?

Hi Robster, when I've actually put the trade on (only in a demo account, with Oanda) it's automated. When I can't manage it at exactly 3.00 I'm reconstructing it with hindsight from their 30-second bar charts, "with hindsight", seeing where the price moved to and where my stop would have moved to either 18 or 21 above/below that before the price reversed (in the case of losers), but all according to what's set out in the first post. "E&OE", as they say!

 

[robster970]

My 2c on this is that automated trailing mechanisms do not consider where price has traded and where active participants have determined where the extremes of value are - hence the automated trailing stop mechanism is an arbitrary method of locking in profits.

If you want a better way, trail based upon Higher-Lows when long or Lower-Highs when short. The trick with trailing is knowing when a move is running out of steam or not to get the best exit you can.

Just an opinion, might not suit you.

 

[alexaherself]

Thursday’s results

Cable: long 3.18p.m. (short entry cancelled), TP 3.38p.m., gaining 21 pips.

Euro: long 3.11p.m. (short entry cancelled), TP 3.53p.m., gaining 18 pips.


Cable
Today’s profit: 21 pips
Cumulative profit: 69.5 pips

Euro
Today's profit: 18 pips
Cumulative profit: 60.4 pips

Overall balance
Currently +129.9 pips

 

[alexaherself]

If you want a better way, trail based upon Higher-Lows when long or Lower-Highs when short. The trick with trailing is knowing when a move is running out of steam or not to get the best exit you can.

Thanks very much for this.

Not having "trailed" before, other than manually, this is exactly the kind of observation I was hoping to encounter, when I started the thread. Will certainly examine it carefully.

(Could pretty easily have taken more pips, today, it seems, by not closing "arbitrarily" at the "target" but moving the SL up a lot more and riding further).

 

[robster970]

What is the primary TF you are trading off and what TF are you using for determining entry/exit?

 

[alexaherself]

I get the entry criteria just from 1-hour bars, the 13.00 and 14.00 bars, taking the higher of the two highs as my 1.00-3.00pm "high" (and adding 2.5 pips on to it for the entry, and a further 21 pips for the TP), and the same principle with the lows of those bars.

If I've actually entered the trade, of course posting the result is easy. If I haven't, then I look at their 30-second bar chart to see when the entry was triggered (and the TP, if that was, and how far the stop would have moved).

Not quite certain I've answered what you're asking?

 

[neil]

When you get time can you post a chart. That way a picture may improve upon a written reply?

 

[robster970]

When you get time can you post a chart. That way a picture may improve upon a written reply?

+1 - we will then know what you are looking at and can probably help you more

 

[robster970]

+1 - we will then know what you are looking at and can probably help you more

Neil can certainly be more use than me, I trade two specific futures contracts and not FX but basic principles are the same really. Once you can do one market, you can probably have a good crack at others with some adjustments based upon market personality.

 

[alexaherself]

Thanks very much, guys. There's a bit of a chart in post #15 above, but it doesn't show much. I'll try to post charts of one of tomorrow's trades, then.

 

[robster970]

Thanks very much, guys. There's a bit of a chart in post #15 above, but it doesn't show much. I'll try to post charts of one of tomorrow's trades, then.

OK - I get what you are doing. It is very formulaic, mechanical and therefore backtestable. Have you backtested this and what were the results?

 

[barryb]

Alexa, if you trade volatility breakouts, as you're doing here, there are two standard ways of exiting; first profitable open, or by using a trailing stop.

"First profitable open" means holding trades overnight until the open of the next day (whatever time you deem that to be), and if it shows you a profit you exit, if not, you stay in until you're stopped out or the next profitable open.

Trailing stops can be sma's, ema's, % of previous daily range, etc, as I'm sure you're aware. But, whichever one you choose, be consistent in it's application during your early trading career. If you pick and choose the ones to trail or exit, you'll be getting the worst of both worlds.

What the previous couple of days action in Cable should demonstrate to you; is that fixed targets are definitely sub-optimal when trading volatility breakouts. These methods are all about testing, and keeping it as simple as possible.

 

[alexaherself]

What the previous couple of days action in Cable should demonstrate to you; is that fixed targets are definitely sub-optimal when trading volatility breakouts.

Yes - I've been thinking this.

OK - I get what you are doing. It is very formulaic, mechanical and therefore backtestable. Have you backtested this and what were the results?

Yes, it's entirely formulaic, really. Except that I'll occasionally vary a target if it looks like hitting probable resistance. No - I don't know how to backtest a trailing stop. (Kind of "hence the forward test"). I tested something similar but on Cable only, for a long time. It had a 1:1 R:R ratio, no trailing stop, and it traded about 17 days per month, winning 59% of its trades and losing 41% ... so it seemed "decently profitable" in the long term.

Normally (when I have time/attention) I trade 1-2-3 reversals and Ross Hooks, and I let either half or a third of the trade run with a trend, when I catch one, moving my SL manually. But that's obviously a different kind of trading from this, and not something I often have time to do, at the moment.

 

[robster970]

If you are only able to try-out and commit to very tightly structured trades, then it would be worth you:

a) Getting a platform that allows you to create and back-test them over very significant sample sizes that cover many different market states (I mean years here, not weeks or months).

b) Use the platform to come up with a couple that work well in back-test and then run them in forward test on demo, eventually move to cash.

None of this stuff is my bag - I am entirely discretionary so I am probably not able to help much with this area. The only thing I know is that simple set-ups are often the best so keeping it basic with a very small number of params (avoid curve fitting) is probably going to be your salvation.

If you want to move to discretionary one day, I may be able to help a little.

Good luck.

 

[alexaherself]

Thanks very much, Robster.


Friday 7th June

Cable: high 1.56048, low 1.54886
Long entry 1.56073, TP 1.56283, TS 21 pips
Short entry 1.5486.1, TP 1.54651, TS 21 pips

Euro: high 1.32856, low 1.31919
Long entry 1.32881, TP 1.33061, TS 18 pips
Short entry 1.31894 TP 1.31714, TS 18 pips

All limit orders expired unfilled at 5.00p.m. - no trade today.

And have a good weekend, all.

 

[alexaherself]

Monday 10th June

Cable: high 1.55517, low 1.54949
Long entry 1.55542, TP 1.55752, TS 21 pips
Short entry 1.54924, TP 1.54714, TS 21 pips

Euro: high 1.32258, low 1.31828
Long entry 1.32283, TP 1.32463, TS 18 pips
Short entry 1.31803 TP 1.31623, TS 18 pips

 

[alexaherself]

Monday’s results

Cable: long 4.20p.m. (short entry cancelled), TP 6.53p.m., gaining 21 pips.

Euro: long 4.29p.m. (short entry cancelled), TP 6.41p.m., gaining 18 pips.


Cable
Today’s profit: 21 pips
Cumulative profit: 90.5 pips

Euro
Today's profit: 18 pips
Cumulative profit: 78.4 pips

Overall balance
Currently +168.9 pips