should the stop be greater than the limit ?

[Liquid validity]

Coin tossing doesn't fit my world view and it doesn't fit my gut. So I have no way to take it in. To me, the market is not random. Therefore random entry is not useful.

See my attempts in entering eurjpy recently. It was very deliberate with specific goal in mind while foregoing some quite reasonable pips. My regret now is not persisting with my aims. Random entry would have no place for this kind of trading.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-113.html#post2059076

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-114.html#post2059370

F**k me this is like an itch I can't stop scratching, I know I shouldn't...

First off, lets clear one thing up.
Random entry is just one method, its not the only method or the best.
The best method is the one that suits you.

The higher end of this field has some heavy backing:
https://www.wintoncapital.com/

Read the last paragraph of this article (David Harding heads Winton Capital).
Winton Capital Management | The Hedge Fund Journal
Fair enough if it doesn't suit you, that does not mean it has no value.

You are also confusing random market with random entry.
The random market arguments are as old as the hills - its irrelevant.

All trades are random outcome.
If you were 100% certain of outcome, you wouldn't have any losing trades would you?
We all know that is impossible.
So if you accept that, how large a jump is it to believe that a random entry
with a well managed exit (even if a loss) can have some worth.

The common misnomer with random entry is that it literally has to be
stereotypical coin flip.
Simple truth is, all entries, no matter what method is used, have an element of
randomness.
Sure, you can decrease the randomness with other methods.
You can never truly eliminate it though.
Think about that...

 

[BeginnerJoe]

F**k me this is like an itch I can't stop scratching, I know I shouldn't...

First off, lets clear one thing up.
Random entry is just one method, its not the only method or the best.
The best method is the one that suits you.

The higher end of this field has some heavy backing:
https://www.wintoncapital.com/

Read the last paragraph of this article (David Harding heads Winton Capital).
Winton Capital Management | The Hedge Fund Journal
Fair enough if it doesn't suit you, that does not mean it has no value.

You are also confusing random market with random entry.
The random market arguments are as old as the hills - its irrelevant.

All trades are random outcome.
If you were 100% certain of outcome, you wouldn't have any losing trades would you?
We all know that is impossible.
So if you accept that, how large a jump is it to believe that a random entry
with a well managed exit (even if a loss) can have some worth.

The common misnomer with random entry is that it literally has to be
stereotypical coin flip.
Simple truth is, all entries, no matter what method is used, have an element of
randomness.
Sure, you can decrease the randomness with other methods.
You can never truly eliminate it though.
Think about that...

Look what AHL did to EMG's share price. I'd say this guy adds no extra credibility to coin tossing.

My goal is perfect entry with the exit being unimportant. Naturally this approach is diametrically opposed to coin tossing.

Now that you are a fully sold to55er - coin to55er that is, do you have the pips to show for it ? Never mind about the demo pips with your ninjatrader. Those don't count due to the market reaction idea I kept banging on about. The market doesn't care if you toss a coin or doing a tinky winky dance to enter. It just knows it's going to make a meal out of you. I only have experience for the forex market. Maybe other markets work differently. What markets do the hare trade in that are more agreeable to coin tossing ? Perhaps I need to get in on those markets.

 

[Liquid validity]

My goal is perfect entry with the exit being unimportant.

I really do give up, its futile

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I really do give up, its futile

Maybe you are just resistant to new ideas. If you find yourself jumping out of the fire into the frying pan with the coin tossing, perhaps you want to try some new ideas.

 

[robster970]

Coin tossing doesn't fit my world view and it doesn't fit my gut. So I have no way to take it in. To me, the market is not random. Therefore random entry is not useful. Perhaps the hare was too subtle with his help given his need to never contribute. So I never picked it up.

See my attempts in entering eurjpy recently. It was very deliberate with specific goal in mind while foregoing some quite reasonable pips. My regret now is not persisting with my aims. Random entry would have no place for this kind of trading.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-113.html#post2059076

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-114.html#post2059370

Simple question for you Joe - it's not a trick question either btw - just want to see where your head is.

In the lifecycle of a trade what do the following provide:

1) The entry.
2) The exit.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Simple question for you Joe - it's not a trick question either btw - just want to see where your head is.

In the lifecycle of a trade what do the following provide:

1) The entry.
2) The exit.

Donno, never read the books. But my goals for these are:

Entry provides the margin for safety
Exit provides risk control
As for coin toss, no idea why that would come in to play. Good for deciding who gets the first go in sports, though.

 

[wackypete2]

I don't think,

and it shows.

Peter

 

[cablemonster]

Donno, never read the books. But my goals for these are:

Entry provides the margin for safety
Exit provides risk control
As for coin toss, no idea why that would come in to play. Good for deciding who gets the first go in sports, though.

Google 'tom basso random entry' he is the world champion of coin tossing behaviour and his sack is full of marbles.

 

[barjon]

My goal is perfect entry with the exit being unimportant.

So just keep your eyes on your account, BJ. What happens to it when you enter? Nothing.

What happens to it when you exit? Movement.

It surely follows that entry, "perfect" or not, merely gives you opportunity. What you make of that opportunity depends solely on exit.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Google 'tom basso random entry' he is the world champion of coin tossing behaviour and his sack is full of marbles.

I searched and it was stated tom basso was a trend follower. He once experimented with random entry. There's nothing that said he made his money from random entry. If he was the basis for the coin toss claim, then I would say coin tossing is bunk.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

So just keep your eyes on your account, BJ. What happens to it when you enter? Nothing.

What happens to it when you exit? Movement.

It surely follows that entry, "perfect" or not, merely gives you opportunity. What you make of that opportunity depends solely on exit.

Wrong entry will give you negative balance movement. So it is best you get the entry right, then you have something worth exiting with.

A good entry will give you a profit, a break even, or a loss regardless of the exit, A bad entry will give you a loss regardless of the exit. If the entry system performance is unknown such as done through a coin toss, using the best exit system, you have 2 out of 4 chances of making a loss, 1 out of 4 chance making a profit, and 1 out of 4 chance of breaking even. Contrast that to a good entry system with bad exit system: you have 1 out 3 chance of making a loss, 1 out of 3 chance breaking even, and 1 out of 3 chance of making a profit. The odds for profit is better with a good entry system than with a good exit system.

 

[barjon]

................A good entry will give you a profit, a break even, or a loss regardless of the exit.......................

Come on, BJ, regardless of exit. A good entry will give you a paper profit, break even, or loss as price moves along, but it's solely and indisputably your exit that cements one of those in as far as your account is concerned. Or, perhaps you are advocating coin-toss exits - now there's a thought

 

[the hare]

I searched and it was stated tom basso was a trend follower. He once experimented with random entry. There's nothing that said he made his money from random entry. If he was the basis for the coin toss claim, then I would say coin tossing is bunk.

The Tom Basso thing is just bollox. The random entry with the ATR multiple stop is just an example used by that snake oil salesman Van Tharp, and if you dig deep enough into the method, you'll see why it makes no sense. I will let you do the research, its all out there but you will need to do some work

I don't blame you for looking at entries, I wasted enough time doing the same thing, so I can empathize, but here is something for you to consider. Do the entries for your profitable trades result in a statistically smaller MAE than a random entry would give you ?

Of course you'd need to know the stats for the random entry, and that opens up a bit of a can of worms and would require some work, but well.... I think that I've given you enough of a quick peek at the cat in the bag.

You are making the mistake of using profit or loss as a proxy to determine the effectiveness of your "system" (note to teh CEO a lulz icon is definitely required 4 these kinds of threads) I've said enough..

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Come on, BJ, regardless of exit. A good entry will give you a paper profit, break even, or loss as price moves along, but it's solely and indisputably your exit that cements one of those in as far as your account is concerned. Or, perhaps you are advocating coin-toss exits - now there's a thought

A good entry makes the exit non-critical. It wouldn't be extremely harmful if you then start tossing coins for the exit. Often times I exit because the profit number was a round number. Yet more times I would let the profit run into the ground because I wanted more than that was given to me. In any case I find exits very simple and easy. I consider any non-loss exit to be a good exit.

A paper profit is as real as a paper loss. Why else would you exit a trade if it runs against you too much given that there's yet no change to your account balance ? I am shocked after 30 years of playing the casino you still have such glaring holes in your thinking.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The Tom Basso thing is just bollox. The random entry with the ATR multiple stop is just an example used by that snake oil salesman Van Tharp, and if you dig deep enough into the method, you'll see why it makes no sense. I will let you do the research, its all out there but you will need to do some work

I don't blame you for looking at entries, I wasted enough time doing the same thing, so I can empathize, but here is something for you to consider. Do the entries for your profitable trades result in a statistically smaller MAE than a random entry would give you ?

Of course you'd need to know the stats for the random entry, and that opens up a bit of a can of worms and would require some work, but well.... I think that I've given you enough of a quick peek at the cat in the bag.

You are making the mistake of using profit or loss as a proxy to determine the effectiveness of your "system" (note to teh CEO a lulz icon is definitely required 4 these kinds of threads) I've said enough..

Well I have no interest in volatility plays. I am looking for multi-day trending plays. So the direction is specific. Random entry serves no purpose for me.

As for your cat and bag, I could see neither. I have to presume they are either imaginary cat and bag, or they are something very small that most people will not be able to see them.

 

[robster970]

Entry provides the margin for safety
Exit provides risk control.

OK, tip from me. You don't make your money on entries. You attempt to contain your risk on entries. You make/lose money on exit and where you exit has an associated probability of being reached from your point of entry. That probability may change over the lifecycle of the individual trade but on the whole, it will net out to a relatively stable amount over a significant enough sample size for the security you trade.

.....but here is something for you to consider. Do the entries for your profitable trades result in a statistically smaller MAE than a random entry would give you ?

This is the starting point for understanding.

A good entry makes the exit non-critical.

A good entry minimises your capital at risk quickly. If you don't exit, you have nothing to show.

Well I have no interest in volatility plays. I am looking for multi-day trending plays. So the direction is specific. Random entry serves no purpose for me.

Once again, demonstration of shoot first and ask questions later. Hare is not talking about volatility plays - he, myself and LV are trying to point you at the very thing that makes me a discretionary trader, LV a systemic traders and hare a systemic random entry trader - it's all the same meat - we just execute a method of trading against it differently.

Last chance Joe and if you write back with an instant rejection, I'm out of here.

 

[tar]

When it comes to stops this comes to my mind :

How are you going to make money with fixed stops if it costs you to trade ? ie : the ES it costs you around 0.35 handle , now if it moved your way 2 points you will be up 1.65 and if it moved against you 2 points you will be down 2.35 points . hmmm .

 

[the hare]

As for your cat and bag, I could see neither.

Just 4 U

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Hare is not talking about volatility plays

Ok, then explain what he is talking about ? He seemed unable to express himself very well.

For instance I want to short cadjpy in the very near future, are you suggesting I should randomly enter a direction ? Why would I do that when I already know the direction ?

 

[the hare]

I don't think Joe gets it