should i ignore the news

[vergis92]

Only a fool would trade whilst ignoring the news flows. That does not mean all news is relevent, nor does it mean should you blindly jump in and out of positions based solely upon new information.

But, none the less you would be a fool to ignore news. I will wait for the comments of major protestation before I give a couple of a couple of examples.

and are you a profitable trader? please show me how a daily report helps you figure out market direction (not volatility), I am talking about economic numbers,not breaking news about unforessen events (terrorist attacks / earthquakes). because successful traders I have seen claim otherwise, and I don't think they are fools. More specifically show me what % probability you think you can have trading on daily news.

 

[new_trader]

Hi, I would like to ask members views on 'ignoring the news' when daytrading. I have a small account that seems to get smaller when I take economic announcements and the daily news into account whilst deciding on when to open trades. Many traders seem to delight in saying that they never watch or read the news when daytrading. The problem I have with this is that it is very difficult for me to accept that even though a chart says buy, if news is expected out and I believe it will be bad news - I have huge trouble in putting that buy on. Also do those who never watch or read the news take releases into account by for example not being in the market when important economic releases are coming out.
Thanks

It is impossible for anyone to attain any permanent success by attempting to interpret the news into stock market profits. Millions are trying to do this. Few think alike. The buying or selling of other millions who do not know the news may outweigh that of those who do. Why not judge the market from its own action? Thus you get a consensus of the actual buying and selling, however it is generated. For, while the news may influence opinion and sentiment, it is only the orders that are executed on the exchange that actually influence prices. Observe which side possesses the greatest power; then go with that side, whether it be the bull or the bear.

 

[vergis92]

It is impossible for anyone to attain any permanent success by attempting to interpret the news into stock market profits. Millions are trying to do this. Few think alike. The buying or selling of other millions who do not know the news may outweigh that of those who do. Why not judge the market from its own action? Thus you get a consensus of the actual buying and selling, however it is generated. For, while the news may influence opinion and sentiment, it is only the orders that are executed on the exchange that actually influence prices. Observe which side possesses the greatest power; then go with that side, whether it be the bull or the bear.

Exactly! and it is impossible because the probability of success of picking right market direction upon report release is like 12.5% - 25% , which is pathetic:!:
there's a whole industry behind news, and selling you news and services, and all these FX sites that need to write fresh daily content to keep up their SEO, that's what the daily news industry is all about!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Exactly! and it is impossible because the probability of success of picking right market direction upon report release is like 12.5% - 25% , which is pathetic:!:
there's a whole industry behind news, and selling you news and services, and all these FX sites that need to write fresh daily content to keep up their SEO, that's what the daily news industry is all about!

:?::!:

Anyway, back in the real world... I think it depends on how you trade. If you're trying to short term trade the announcements then you better be very good or very lucky. If you're already holding for the medium/longer term maybe it's gonna affect your outlook and you need to change your exposure.

Horses for courses.

 

[N Rothschild]

so the consensus is, its irrelevant to your trades if bernakenstein does qe3 today or not?

idiots...

 

[Pferd]

so the consensus is, its irrelevant to your trades if bernakenstein does qe3 today or not?

idiots...

I think you did not read the thread.... Another fellow member who is not able to read....must be endemic around here.

 

[N Rothschild]

people are saying you can trade by ignoring the news, so i presumed they would be ignoring the news or yes/no qe3 and continuing on with their original outlook?

 

[Pferd]

people are saying you can trade by ignoring the news, so i presumed they would be ignoring the news or yes/no qe3 and continuing on with their original outlook?

No, they are not saying that. They are saying that is too complicate for us to analyze all the twist and turns of the news and data releases, so it is better to concentrate on the chart in front of you and follow the real decisions, namely the market going up or down.

If I understand correctly this thread is mainly focused on strictly trading on news, not really what the economic outlook is for a given period of time (mid-long term).

 

[N Rothschild]

of course you can trade off news, just because you cant doesnt mean others cant lol

 

[Pferd]

of course you can trade off news, just because you cant doesnt mean others cant lol

well, the majority has a different opinion. You certainly are one of the few who can handle that art, so I congratulate you for that. But there is no need to call the people who can't idiots.

 

[vergis92]

:?::!:

Anyway, back in the real world... I think it depends on how you trade. If you're trying to short term trade the announcements then you better be very good or very lucky. If you're already holding for the medium/longer term maybe it's gonna affect your outlook and you need to change your exposure.

Horses for courses.

I would only use, simple low profile daily news on single stocks, news like simple headlines from a serious news service and try to figure out how traders perceive those, and only good for few hours. But things like FOMC, FX-related, market related, earnings reports on stocks, I have yet to see a trader who can, in those cases the market perceives 8 different possible price levels, and the only thing you see is volatility sweeping across all 8 levels until the market settles at the one level that matches the news. This doesn't work for 20min nor few days.

So what news can work.... for example, there's a war and Raytheon missiles are being fired, that means sales for Raytheon, or a one off revised reserve figure of oil for BP which is out of the ordinary trading calendar, these one off news can be traded but are not available or pre-discussed, or foreseen in websites

 

[new_trader]

I'm not even going to bother entertaining the argument. In the 6+ years I've been trading and using this website I've learned that 99.9999% of the active posters here haven't got the foggiest idea what they are talking about when it comes to trading. They don't know their arses from their elbows.

Trading the news?? FFS that is the sort of nonsense every half-wit newbie thinks they should try as soon as they deposit their pennies in their first spread-betting account.

Anyway, I wouldn't want things to change...watching the bumbling baboons telling the dim witted monkeys what 'The NEWS' is going to do to the market provides me with endless hours of amusement. Then of course you have the blind leading the stupid as they each take stabs in the dark interpreting the impact NFP will have on the market...endless...endless amusement!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I would only use, simple low profile daily news on single stocks, news like simple headlines from a serious news service and try to figure out how traders perceive those, and only good for few hours. But things like FOMC, FX-related, market related, earnings reports on stocks, I have yet to see a trader who can, in those cases the market perceives 8 different possible price levels, and the only thing you see is volatility sweeping across all 8 levels until the market settles at the one level that matches the news. This doesn't work for 20min nor few days.

So what news can work.... for example, there's a war and Raytheon missiles are being fired, that means sales for Raytheon, or a one off revised reserve figure of oil for BP which is out of the ordinary trading calendar, these one off news can be traded but are not available or pre-discussed, or foreseen in websites

Congratulations. You're the first person EVER to make it on the Scose ignore list.

Ask around and you'll see that this really is no small feat.

 

[BataviaTrader]

....I've learned that 99.9999% of the active posters here haven't got the foggiest idea what they are talking about when it comes to trading. .

....says the man with 4,236 Posts.

Oops ..I'm sorry, you happen to be that 0,00001 %.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

well what if bids/offers get pulled? thats the opp of selling but price moves

 

[vergis92]

Congratulations. You're the first person EVER to make it on the Scose ignore list.

Ask around and you'll see that this really is no small feat.

why read my posts, you say in your posts that you believe in luck and somehow being better, I'm therefore convinced that by using your 'luck' and 'being better' anything can be possible, I'm sure you are a super-trader, but better write anything useful that new traders can use in their real world trading, terms such as 'luck' and 'maybe possible by being better' are for the superstitious traders.

But luck (bad or good) can explain all moves in the market, right? well done, I find this very informative, from now on I will be reading my horoscope news before I trade the markets...

 

[anley]

One thing to always remember about the news is when do you receive it versus when do 'others' receive it?

Chances are you, me and 99% on this board will receive it after the 'others' have received it. Take note of it by all means but realise where you are in the queue and that probably means it's worthless in order to make quick trading decisions.