same with all future markets

[badtrader]

Have you notice how the min Russell 2000 moves before the cash market.Now, how does it know, the cash market is going to move, There are 2000 stocks to watch, you cant look at them all to to see where the next move will come from. The Russell cash index, dont help you with this. It the same with all future markets. I even put the strongest Russell stock up on my chart and still, the Russell mini moved before the stock.LOL

Any thoughts on this,

 

[Directional]

That is possibly because the exchanges don't send out true realtime cash prices. Rather, they send out snapshots every 15 seconds, so your cash data will always be behind, and gappy.

 

[rog1111]

....and, quite often inaccurate too, especially at tops and bottoms

rog1111

That is possibly because the exchanges don't send out true realtime cash prices. Rather, they send out snapshots every 15 seconds, so your cash data will always be behind, and gappy.

 

[Directional]

yeah, thats usually a side effect of the 15 second snapshots... think about it, exchange snapshot at 629.10, cash then moves down five ticks to make a new low, before retracing to 629.00 when the next snapshot is sent 15 seconds later... = lots of missing price data

 

[rog1111]

hmm, I have often seen values posted by the exchanges that were not even close to the true calculation, literally miles out, conveniently......

Interestingly also the official index value sometimes appears to lead the "real" index value, although of course it can't, so draw your own conclusions !

rog1111

 

[juanbyte]

For the index to move all 2000 stocks must move, some will move more than others.

The futures is only one contract and will move much quicker.

I have noticed that the Russell follows the Dow and S&P.

 

[commanderco]

For the index to move all 2000 stocks must move, some will move more than others.

The futures is only one contract and will move much quicker.

I have noticed that the Russell follows the Dow and S&P.

Do you mean the Russell follows on futures or cash?

 

[juanbyte]

The mini Russell futures contract (ER2) follows the Dow YM and S&P (ES) contracts.

 

[commanderco]

The mini Russell futures contract (ER2) follows the Dow YM and S&P (ES) contracts.

Many thanks JuanByte.
I do not trade the Russell, just the CME IMM´s, but I am interested in expansion
as the currencies are so heavily colineated these days.
Incidentally, I could not open your charts.
Once again, many thanks.

 

[charliechan]

sometimes the russell will lead the dow, spoo, nas, other times it will lag.
sometimes the dow will lead the spoo, nas, russell etc
sometimes the nas will.....
you get the picture.

there is never ever any definitive lead contract otherwise trading would be easy.

as for futures & cash relationships, the futures will usually move quicker for a couple of reasons:
1/ futures are cheaper to transact in. this means that speculative capital would rather trade in this market, and let the program traders catch up.
2/ if the sell side have a large order for the cash that will move the market, they will take a position in the futures beforehand. taking a position in the cash before executing the customer order just wouldnt be cricket.

i mean - lets go back to basics here and remember what the purpose of the futures market is - its to offset risk in the cash. it provides a chance to hedge. the fact that people speculate there also is just a symptom of the cause.

 

[badtrader]

For the index to move all 2000 stocks must move, some will move more than others.

The futures is only one contract and will move much quicker.

I have noticed that the Russell follows the Dow and S&P.

Sometimes It works but not always. it will not work if there is divergence with other market, example the Nas down 0.4% the dow up 0.5 %. Then again I have seen the YM move fast and the Russell staying steady

But the point is, people move the futures markets, we all got the same data.,stocks move the Russell, If there was no buying of stocks there be no Mini Russell. But and its a big but, how the hell does the Russell move well before the cash market, I dont think its the YM or S&P I have looked at these. and if this was the case percentage terms the YM and the Russell would end the day the same, but they dont.

 

[jiggly]

the 'futures' always leads the cash, yes in any market

 

[badtrader]

sometimes the russell will lead the dow, spoo, nas, other times it will lag.
sometimes the dow will lead the spoo, nas, russell etc
sometimes the nas will.....
you get the picture.

there is never ever any definitive lead contract otherwise trading would be easy.

as for futures & cash relationships, the futures will usually move quicker for a couple of reasons:
1/ futures are cheaper to transact in. this means that speculative capital would rather trade in this market, and let the program traders catch up.
2/ if the sell side have a large order for the cash that will move the market, they will take a position in the futures beforehand. taking a position in the cash before executing the customer order just wouldnt be cricket.

i mean - lets go back to basics here and remember what the purpose of the futures market is - its to offset risk in the cash. it provides a chance to hedge. the fact that people speculate there also is just a symptom of the cause.

Missed you post we posted within a few mins of each other anyway, yes I agree with some of of points, and there is hedging going on, But you said the futures market is to offset risk in the cash. it provides a chance to hedge. Yes ok this does happen but if this was the case of everyone was hedging, selling the stocks and buying futures, this would mean the stocks be going down and the futures going up, but in the real would it dont works like this. the cash and futures moves in line with each other. The old saying cash is king

But there is something going on just before the move get going and I like to get the bottom of it. is it stock bonds what are the clues

 

[charliechan]

..... Yes ok this does happen but if this was the case of everyone was hedging, selling the stocks and buying futures, this would mean the stocks be going down and the futures going up, but in the real would it dont works like this. the cash and futures moves in line with each other. ......


is it stock bonds what are the clues

first part - under this scenario, is there opportunity for someone? what would they do? what would the result be on the respective prices of cash and futures? would they now be moving back in line?



second part - bonds one quarter, oil the last quarter, spoo the next month, dow the previous week, etc etc. soon we will be back to the price of gold leading the stock market. read up on sector rotation could be of some help and then considering the same principals on the wider commodity markets.


the bottom line is: does it matter? trying to overcomplicate everything with meanings, theory and analysis is imo just a crutch used by many to give them themselves the illusion they are being clever and working hard. just like our society demands. unfortunately the market or your account cares very little for this. what is more important is learning the mental skills to pull the trigger correctly, and at the right time. if you cant do that, no amount of knowledge is going to help you.

 

[commanderco]

the bottom line is: does it matter? trying to overcomplicate everything with meanings, theory and analysis is imo just a crutch used by many to give them themselves the illusion they are being clever and working hard. just like our society demands. unfortunately the market or your account cares very little for this. what is more important is learning the mental skills to pull the trigger correctly, and at the right time. if you cant do that, no amount of knowledge is going to help you.

damn you CHANS are clever.
It took me ages to figure that out. I had more number crunching on my machine than the CIA.
All we had in common was that we both got it "dead wrong"

Now, all I do is look for weakness and then fade it.
Exits are the great challenge in life, along with scaling and brackets.

Are you a member of the great English CHANS who served with distinction at Trafalgar, by any chance?

 

[badtrader]

first part - under this scenario, is there opportunity for someone? what would they do? what would the result be on the respective prices of cash and futures? would they now be moving back in line?



second part - bonds one quarter, oil the last quarter, spoo the next month, dow the previous week, etc etc. soon we will be back to the price of gold leading the stock market. read up on sector rotation could be of some help and then considering the same principals on the wider commodity markets.


the bottom line is: does it matter? trying to overcomplicate everything with meanings, theory and analysis is imo just a crutch used by many to give them themselves the illusion they are being clever and working hard. just like our society demands. unfortunately the market or your account cares very little for this. what is more important is learning the mental skills to pull the trigger correctly, and at the right time. if you cant do that, no amount of knowledge is going to help you.

charliechan

Agree flavour of the months do change. It may be me I am always looking to improve, I got no problems pulling the trigger or cutting losses, in fact my entry is good but I always wonder who are the few who get in before me by 2 to 4 bars. This is why I am looking in depth and see if I can improve more.

Also have you notice just before a short term thrust move in the s&p dow Russell all move the exact same time, although there a millions trading these different instruments all over the world lets say the s&p was flavour of the month, then why on earth does the other 3 move the exact same time. If the s&p was the lead, there should be a little delay, but there is nothing. It does you head does it not.

 

[commanderco]

charliechan

Agree flavour of the months do change. It may be me I am always looking to improve, I got no problems pulling the trigger or cutting losses, in fact my entry is good but I always wonder who are the few who get in before me by 2 to 4 bars. :

Hello BT
Do you watch "time & sales" and then fade the entry.
You need to get as close to the tipping point as you can, it is most important.

 

[RUDEBOY]

I'm starting to like you again, Charlie. But there is one thing that concerns me. O.K. Let me be a little bit straight forward here. What is your definition of the word hedge? Ask the managers if it is a realistic concept. And yes....i do like the word 'concept'.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Oh! I'm cocky am i? Well correct me if i am wrong. What does price do? What can you tell me about price? Are there people on here who are not really bothered about certain aspects of the markets? Why are you involved in the markets? Let me guess! Can you explain your reasons for myself? No, you can't. That is all you need to know. Anything else is for arguement. You need to come to terms with T2W, do you not?

 

[badtrader]

Oh! I'm cocky am i? Well correct me if i am wrong. What does price do? What can you tell me about price? Are there people on here who are not really bothered about certain aspects of the markets? Why are you involved in the markets? Let me guess! Can you explain your reasons for myself? No, you can't. That is all you need to know. Anything else is for arguement. You need to come to terms with T2W, do you not?

RUD

Have you got any thing constructive to say to this thread? Or do you want to argue all the time, I hope you was not picked on in school, Its a classic example in what you are doing