S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Oscar Reed]

3999 please

 

[Atilla]

4080 for me...

 

[Velo]

4007 thanks.

 

[Snowsword]

It would be a volatile week, difficult to predict.
My guess: 4320

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 4205.45

 

[counter_violent]

4222.4 ta

 

[Atilla]

4222.4 ta

Yo CV,

I don't remember if I asked you before, out of curiousity do you have the occurrence of Twins in your gene pool?

 

[Atilla]

Also, does anyone object if I introduce a new Black_Box_Trend_Following_System metric - version 3 into the forecast pool please?

They will not participate in the prizes but will claim medals and points knocking other players into getting just the one point in direction.

Have a think about it and let me know how you guys feel about the extra competition?

 

[1nvest]

4093 for me please

 

[counter_violent]

Yo CV,

I don't remember if I asked you before, out of curiousity do you have the occurrence of Twins in your gene pool?

No, there's no mystery. Every submission has been and will be, a palindrome

 

[Atilla]

Here goes week 18th forecasts...

We have 7 bears and 3 bulls. Big variance in the forecasts - 321 points. Signals an above average variance of opinion. Not like T2W bloggers to have such diverse opinions??? Or is it? Haha...

Snowsword unlike last week has turned very bullish. Oscar Reed bearish. What a topsy turvy world we live in.

Wishing you all prosperous trading and sunny days.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Also, does anyone object if I introduce a new Black_Box_Trend_Following_System metric - version 3 into the forecast pool please?

They will not participate in the prizes but will claim medals and points knocking other players into getting just the one point in direction.

Have a think about it and let me know how you guys feel about the extra competition?

No objections in principle, but a start with points and medals at the beginning of a quarter would probably be fairer than almost in the middle of it.
Another fair possibility could be that your new system does not knock other players in this round (only in this second quarter).

 

[Atilla]

No objections in principle, but a start with points and medals at the beginning of a quarter would probably be fairer than almost in the middle of it.
Another fair possibility could be that your new system does not knock other players in this round (only in this second quarter).

Yep fair points. I can start in quarter 3 if there are objections

 

[Velo]

Psstt!
Hey YOU!
That 's right, you - the S&P 500
- 1pm USA time and already you're showing the second digit as "0"

Don't blaady well go into the bald 4,000's just yet. Too soon! Save it until after the FED Meeting.
You'll end up shoving me back into me Morecombe-and-Wise routine.

 

[Atilla]

I'm thinking this is a major change in almost quarter of a century.

The expected 50 base point rise today, was last seen 22 years ago. Ooohhhhh!

The BS version is that the economy is recovering, we are coming out of a trough recessionary period and rise in rates shows strength of economy to cool it down.

Ofcourse the other view is that the dollar is up brown creek along with inflation.

Read that Nicolai Tangen the biggest wealth fund manager sees Stagflation as the biggest risk to global economy. So we are 50% there, to seeing the risk materialise.

Reminds me of this wonderful sketch...

 

[Atilla]

OMG - what a week. The mean average AVG metric of all the forecasts was just 0.26 ticks away from Friday's close. What a field, superbly balanced forecasters between bulls and bears. Well done to us all in some respect.

1nvest takes the silver and Weighted Average the bronze medals. Good call 1nvest. 👏

Quarter 2 - League Table

Bit of a change on the leader boards too. I have managed to find my self on top of the league table for Quarter 2 and taken over the lead from CV for the Running Total leader board too. Virtual drinks round all on me. 🍻🍻🍻

 

[Atilla]

4000 for me

 

[Snowsword]

4170

 

[1nvest]

4217 for me please

 

[counter_violent]

4151.4 ta