hwsteele
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Could you describe how you determine which day will be a pivot day ?
Thanks in advance.
Most of what I use for the forecasts in this thread can be found in my "Time" thread.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/price-volume/42118-time.html
hwsteele
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2-17-09
The chart that I loaded shows The highest high so for this year back on January 6th.
It also shows the first measured move from that high. That was about a 47 point move ending on January 8th before the market started moving back up that day.
The first move(swing) in a good sized impulsive move will give good price levels to watch for for the rest of that move. In our case, multiples of 47 points should give us good price levels to watch for resistance. I market those prices with green lines on the chart and then added some more below the chart to indicate price levels that have not been reached yet.
The swing that is market by the red circles indicates a possible low of around 710.
The swing that is market by the green circles indicates a possible low of around 750.
Both of those targets are a nod to koolblue as I used his favorite 1.618 multiple of the swing.
The swing that has the first red circle around it gives targets of 2-19 and 2-26 still.
Look for price to be around one of the price levels on those two days.
The chart that I loaded shows The highest high so for this year back on January 6th.
It also shows the first measured move from that high. That was about a 47 point move ending on January 8th before the market started moving back up that day.
The first move(swing) in a good sized impulsive move will give good price levels to watch for for the rest of that move. In our case, multiples of 47 points should give us good price levels to watch for resistance. I market those prices with green lines on the chart and then added some more below the chart to indicate price levels that have not been reached yet.
The swing that is market by the red circles indicates a possible low of around 710.
The swing that is market by the green circles indicates a possible low of around 750.
Both of those targets are a nod to koolblue as I used his favorite 1.618 multiple of the swing.
The swing that has the first red circle around it gives targets of 2-19 and 2-26 still.
Look for price to be around one of the price levels on those two days.
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hwsteele
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The 18th had a small bottom with a little retracement back up that ended on the 19th. So the 19th did turn the market back in the direction of the main trend. A good place to add to a short position as the price was not yet in the target zone of 750 to as low as 710. We are there now so we could see the market start a nice move back up soon.
Keep watch on the 26th as the next turn date from my calculations.
If all does not break down soon we may see an up side target of at least 950. Maybe as high as 1100.
Keep watch on the 26th as the next turn date from my calculations.
If all does not break down soon we may see an up side target of at least 950. Maybe as high as 1100.
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welshandy1
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Hey HW,
interested to hear your targets for the coming week?
interested to hear your targets for the coming week?
hwsteele
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As the chart shows next week has three possible pivot dates from my calculations.
March 2nd, 4th, and 5th.
The 26th of February looked to be a day late as the real pivot happened on the 25th.
We may still see 705 or so before we start back up. That is if the world doesn't end or something like that. After that the price areas to look for on the up side are:
740
780
795
After the first leg of the up move has happened more up side targets can be calculated.
March 2nd, 4th, and 5th.
The 26th of February looked to be a day late as the real pivot happened on the 25th.
We may still see 705 or so before we start back up. That is if the world doesn't end or something like that. After that the price areas to look for on the up side are:
740
780
795
After the first leg of the up move has happened more up side targets can be calculated.
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hwsteele
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Well the world isn't ending but at this point 590 is more likely than 795!
The 2nd didn't pan out but the 4th did. Today is the 5th so maybe we will turn back up friday.
If friday is not a VERY large up day then I believe we may be going lower. By my calculations 550 would be the basement(for now).
As for today I believe the market has a chance of turning up for a while at 1:00P.M. central time GMT -6
Another turn at about 1:30-45 looks possible too.
The 2nd didn't pan out but the 4th did. Today is the 5th so maybe we will turn back up friday.
If friday is not a VERY large up day then I believe we may be going lower. By my calculations 550 would be the basement(for now).
As for today I believe the market has a chance of turning up for a while at 1:00P.M. central time GMT -6
Another turn at about 1:30-45 looks possible too.
hwsteele
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I don't normally do this, but I am going to give a possible forecast for the next few months. I like to swing trade so I don't normally forecast to far out.
I believe we will see the market go down til about the end of March. Maybe the very beginning of April.
from there I think we will have a slow climb up 'til at least the end of August. I am looking for the possibility of the large retracements happening in early to middle may, then a big part of June. Then up into July and back down into August. from that august low up into September.
All IMHO
Jason
I believe we will see the market go down til about the end of March. Maybe the very beginning of April.
from there I think we will have a slow climb up 'til at least the end of August. I am looking for the possibility of the large retracements happening in early to middle may, then a big part of June. Then up into July and back down into August. from that august low up into September.
All IMHO
Jason
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hwsteele
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Today was the first day in five days we closed down. If we retrace back to the 720 level and then start to head back up I believe we will see 820. A little longer term I would look for 925 and maybe just a little more.
If we break back down to below 720 for a close we may just retest the bottom again. I don't think that will happen right now but you never know.
I believe we will head up as both the target pivot dates I last listed only made intra-day swings. That shows strength to the up side to me because those were the only two days that even put the breaks on the market just a little.
The 18th and the 20th both show to be pivot days.
431
If we break back down to below 720 for a close we may just retest the bottom again. I don't think that will happen right now but you never know.
I believe we will head up as both the target pivot dates I last listed only made intra-day swings. That shows strength to the up side to me because those were the only two days that even put the breaks on the market just a little.
The 18th and the 20th both show to be pivot days.
431
hwsteele
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Today we had a nice large rally. That made both the 18th and the 20th nice pivot days.
The next pivot days that show up in the calculations are both the 23rd and the 25th.
We will see how those days turn out.
The lowest price target I currently have is about 830 so we may have a short term top around there.
After that we may start charging back up to a medium term high of about 940 or so.
All just guess work at this point, let's see what the market does.
446
The next pivot days that show up in the calculations are both the 23rd and the 25th.
We will see how those days turn out.
The lowest price target I currently have is about 830 so we may have a short term top around there.
After that we may start charging back up to a medium term high of about 940 or so.
All just guess work at this point, let's see what the market does.
446
hwsteele
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Both the 23rd and 25th turned the market up each in their own turn.
The low on the 20th gives both today and Monday as turn dates.
Today worked out well, we will see how Monday works.
The March 6th low also gives a turn forecast for April 6th.
That same low also gives a turn date of May 12th. A bit out there in time right now but worth watching as it could be a bigger pivot.
456
The low on the 20th gives both today and Monday as turn dates.
Today worked out well, we will see how Monday works.
The March 6th low also gives a turn forecast for April 6th.
That same low also gives a turn date of May 12th. A bit out there in time right now but worth watching as it could be a bigger pivot.
456
hwsteele
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Well the market did turn down for Friday the 27th and then made bottom on Monday the 30th before it started back up a little before the close.
The top on March 26th gives two targets of April 2nd and then the 4th. The 4th is Saturday so we will be looking at the 6th, or Monday. The March 6th low also gives the 6th as a target so that should be a good one.
469
The top on March 26th gives two targets of April 2nd and then the 4th. The 4th is Saturday so we will be looking at the 6th, or Monday. The March 6th low also gives the 6th as a target so that should be a good one.
469
hwsteele
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The 2nd turned out to be the current pivot high although the 3rd did close just a little up from the 2nd's close. Today, the 6th, the market turned down but just a bit so far. If we turn up from here it would show some strength left to move higher.(DUH) If pushed I would lean in the direction of the market going down more first. 800 makes a nice round target.
April 8th and 13th both show to be pivot days.
480
April 8th and 13th both show to be pivot days.
480
hwsteele
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Well The 8th DID turn the market up from it's four days in a row of lower highs. Today was the 13th and looks as though it may have been a high. We will have to wait and see for sure.
The low close on the 7th gives the 14th as a pivot day and also the 16th looks like one.
The low on April 1st also points to the 14th and then the 20th.
The market did close higher today so my guess is down for tomorrow.
The high on the 26th of last month also points to the 14th.
Could it be a big drop or just a drop in the bucket?
We will see!
492
The low close on the 7th gives the 14th as a pivot day and also the 16th looks like one.
The low on April 1st also points to the 14th and then the 20th.
The market did close higher today so my guess is down for tomorrow.
The high on the 26th of last month also points to the 14th.
Could it be a big drop or just a drop in the bucket?
We will see!
492
hwsteele
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We are down for today now lets see how long we keep going down.
The pivots in the SPX have been making higher tops and bottom for some time now. If that keeps up we can't get much lower than 820. If we break 810 then I do believe 780 would be on the table.
The pivots in the SPX have been making higher tops and bottom for some time now. If that keeps up we can't get much lower than 820. If we break 810 then I do believe 780 would be on the table.
hwsteele
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Friday closed just under 870 with a high for the day just under 876.
We are currently right at the price level set back in late January and early February before the market dropped down to its low at around 666. This coupled with the fact that Monday has been calculated to be a pivot day tells me we could see a bit of a downturn this week coming up.
We have not had more than two days in a row close down since the 9th of march so if Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are all down days we could see a 50% retracement of the move up from the 666 low. That would take us down to the 775 area. With the possibility of lower.
The other side of the coin is that we break through this resistance level and then move up to the next ones at 900, 920, and 930. At that point we would have to see what the market does as I do believe it is running out of steam in this up move at least for the time being.
I still believe that we have not seen the final low for this bear market. I also don't see this bull leg of this bear market getting any higher than the 950 price area. Only time will tell for sure.
The 20th and 21st both show to be pivot days from my calculation.
Also, don't forget, the March 6th low points to May the 11th or 12th as a bigger pivot in time. We may work our way up slowly 'til then and then move down for a bigger move, or it may be we start down soon and that leg down ends around the May date.
Until then, happy trading.
We are currently right at the price level set back in late January and early February before the market dropped down to its low at around 666. This coupled with the fact that Monday has been calculated to be a pivot day tells me we could see a bit of a downturn this week coming up.
We have not had more than two days in a row close down since the 9th of march so if Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are all down days we could see a 50% retracement of the move up from the 666 low. That would take us down to the 775 area. With the possibility of lower.
The other side of the coin is that we break through this resistance level and then move up to the next ones at 900, 920, and 930. At that point we would have to see what the market does as I do believe it is running out of steam in this up move at least for the time being.
I still believe that we have not seen the final low for this bear market. I also don't see this bull leg of this bear market getting any higher than the 950 price area. Only time will tell for sure.
The 20th and 21st both show to be pivot days from my calculation.
Also, don't forget, the March 6th low points to May the 11th or 12th as a bigger pivot in time. We may work our way up slowly 'til then and then move down for a bigger move, or it may be we start down soon and that leg down ends around the May date.
Until then, happy trading.
Expecting the bull run to continue? Keep this in mind, “The Wall Street analyst consensus [is] that earnings for S&P 500 companies will drop 37% year/year in Q1 2009 (Thomson Reuters survey).
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