Sang Froid
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RE: Msg 1432
Sangfroid you make some good points some of which have been covered already, but perhaps you need to read a lot of pages to pick them up.
I am one of those who got 50 today and plusses the previous 2 days, all at £2 a pip. But last week was a disaster.
When you read back you will see that some of us - like you with some trading experience - have reservations and use this 'system' accordingly. Notably that you can't beat a trend in the support and resistance. There have been times when the system indicates one should buy for a 50 pip profit, yet looking at the big picture that profit would be above resistance. Taking that approach I have saved money by not trading at all and in the event the 50 pips have not been reached, or often the market has gone down. Its also the case with the rise in MA (which works on 40 only) where if the indicated rise is the minimum 1 pip over the ten candles on which we base our judgement, then there is rarely a good result. Therefore I keep my money in the account on those days too.
I do not know if the MA has altered since Richard Hill published the system. His weekly comments are not ground breaking stuff. They usually reassure people of some of the rules and answer some obvious queries, and no more. (More related to newcomers). He does not offer alternative strategies or figures, except that he has suggested changing stop levels for those who are on a wide spread or guaranteed stop. He reinforces the need to keep to the system and take a long view. On your query on stops, just remember that this system relies on making gains from early trading spikes by 8.30 am., therefore tight stops are inadvisable.
I am delighted that some of our colleagues here have immediately put their sharp minds to the system to make some modifications - especially see the XL posted yesterday. So there is an alternative to hedge one's funds. But I can't see the rewards/risks changing much as this is a purely mechanical system no matter where the market goes. But certainly, making judgements based on experience do help. A late night or early morning look at Wall Street and Asian markets is good preparation before placing the trade. Like yesterday when things dropped late in the day with an obvious result fofr the exchange rate. So a quick look at the charts to see that the sentiment fed through to prices overnight is advisable. In the event the Asian markets brought the rate down so there was a good chance that it would not have an adverse move at start of London trading. so it was, and the market rose nicely for us.
This is not advertised as a way to make a living, but more of a bonus cash income. To make a living one would have to put maybe on £15/pip, though I guess some might try it. The recommended risk is 2% of the pot which is about right. HTH
cheers
mish
Yourself and Melb make some excellent points and this is exactly what I wanted to hear.
I like the fact that some of you have 'tweaked' the system to accommodate for an ever changing market an the ingenuity of this must be congratulated. I use... from what I can gather a very similar system to NT. Without going into too much detail I open trades on the back of the Asian session before London opening using a 60ema and ATR for stops. This NT has really got me intruiged though I must say.
The fact that NT is discretionary while still having elements of a mechanical system appeal to my trading personality. The quotes of yours that I've highlighted I think reflect this.
Melb makes the point that if enough people see the gains to be had with NT.... like any system it will be its downfall, but with constant modification it could overcome this, however how many times will this have to be done until it become the bas**d child of NT I don't know
I'm caught in two minds..... I either carry on with the way I'm trading.... making a bit ... losing a bit, making a bit more, breaking even.........
or go for NT and see what happens.
If I being really really honest with you guys, and please don't take this as any form of insult, the thing that's holding me back is.... I've been trading for three years and to buy a system I will feel like a failure. I can't trade on my own and need someone else's system to tell me when to place trades. That's it laid bare