Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[mark120169]

The problem with opening 2 orders is that you cannot have 2 order/deal screens open at the same time so there will always be a delay between entering the 2 orders - which will be ok in a slow moving market... But during a fast paced market it may prove impossible to align the entry price of the 2 orders...

Yes you can with IG index. Go to settings and you can check a tab that allows multiple tickets to be opened on screen at any one time, then you just set them both up and come 6.30am click, click submit both!!

M

 

[yidos1]

Has anyone checked out betfair for a trading account
Let me know what you think havnt had proper look yet
Mark i like the idea of your mini net trap running alongside nt

 

[yidos1]

as i work nights i have time to follow the market between 6 30 and 8 30 is this a advantage or not?

 

[Melb]

Yes you can with IG index. Go to settings and you can check a tab that allows multiple tickets to be opened on screen at any one time, then you just set them both up and come 6.30am click, click submit both!!

M

- Then this maybe a nice route forward... Set and forget with the extra money management protection... Would be interesting to see this approach back tested further... Probably less overall profit than NT on its own... But definitely more consistent under varying market conditions...

I personally would go with 75/25 for guaranteed no overall loss if MNT hits +10 (which is most days)...

 

[Melb]

as i work nights i have time to follow the market between 6 30 and 8 30 is this a advantage or not?

If you like the adrenaline rush :cheesy: - It depends upon whether you want to manually alter the trade (stops etc) during the trade or not... NT (and MNT) were designed to not be followed... To follow the trade (and tweak) you must be disciplined - this is not really what NT / MNT are about... If you are following the markets then you will be able to calculate better entry and exits, again this is not NT/MNT...

 

[mark120169]

- Then this maybe a nice route forward... Set and forget with the extra money management protection... Would be interesting to see this approach back tested further... Probably less overall profit than NT on its own... But definitely more consistent under varying market conditions...

I personally would go with 75/25 for guaranteed no overall loss if MNT hits +10 (which is most days)...

In reality the way to make true extra profit from a combined NT+MNT system is to adjust your NT MM of 2% of pot per trade to NT +MNT MM of 4% of pot per trade.

So if you have a £1500 pot like me and you are trading NT @ £1 pip (2% MM) then you add MNT daily @ £1 pip to make a combined £2 pip (4% MM).

Then you get much greater reward for risk at Steves backtesting shows the extra +376 pips for the combined system fr 2010 todate would be extra £376 profit.

Splitting your stake 50/50 to maintain 2% MM would result in slighlty worse profit for the combined system as you don't more than double the pips of NT alone.

Hopefully we can get full backtesting of the combined system done to look at how it worked in 2009.

As we are now doing "live" trials of the combined system in June 2010 we can maybe make a decision to adopt the dual system in July, for those that are intrigued.

M

 

[peterf1966]

Mark,

I will go with MNT for a week while I have the ETX offer.

So. 2 orders to open at normal NT rules.
Order 1 is for NT opening level, target 10 pips
Order 2 is for NT opening level, target 50 pips
Both have -30 pip stops.
I'm not sure how MelB's split works though, can you explain Mel?

 

[mark120169]

Ok invented combined name now.......Two Net Trap , abbreviated to TNT

Mark,

I will go with TNT for a week while I have the ETX offer.

So. 2 orders to open at normal NT rules.
Order 1 is for NT opening level, target 10 pips = MNT
Order 2 is for NT opening level, target 50 pips = NT
Both have -30 pip stops.
I'm not sure how MelB's split works though, can you explain Mel?

Correct. TNT is NT + MNT combined the two set and forget orders in Parrellel daily.

If I had the ETX £250 loss protection I would just increase MM to 4% and trade NT & MNT @ £1 pip.

Max daily loss = £60, fully covered for 4 days max losses on both which is very unlikely.

M

 

[Melb]

.
Splitting your stake 50/50 to maintain 2% MM would result in slighlty worse profit for the combined system as you don't more than double the pips of NT alone.

50/50 split will soften the blow if NT is -30 and MNT makes +10 - but will not cover the loss... In this scenario assuming £1 a pip on both NT and MNT (50/50) then this would still result in a £20 overall loss (which of course is better than the alternative of the whole £2 a pip on NT which results in £60 loss)...

75/25 assuming MNT = +10pips @£3 per pip = £30 profit... NT -30 @ £1 per pip = £30 loss - overall no loss...

I guess it all depends upon how well NT has performed during the month - on good months you would be better favouring NT in the ratio... On bad NT months you would be better favouring MNT in the ratio...

Then of course it maybe worth considering a trailing stop on the NT part of the trade

 

[mark120169]

50/50 split will soften the blow if NT is -30 and MNT makes +10 - but will not cover the loss... In this scenario assuming £1 a pip on both NT and MNT (50/50) then this would still result in a £20 overall loss (which of course is better than the alternative of the whole £2 a pip on NT which results in £60 loss)...

75/25 assuming MNT = +10pips @£3 per pip = £30 profit... NT -30 @ £1 per pip = £30 loss - overall no loss...

I guess it all depends upon how well NT has performed during the month - on good months you would be better favouring NT in the ratio... On bad NT months you would be better favouring MNT in the ratio...

Then of course it maybe worth considering a trailing stop on the NT part of the trade

Now we might be cooking with Gas! Using TNT with a trailing stop in the NT part after say +30 pips is reached could prove scarily efficient at banking winning weeks / months.

M

 

[peterf1966]

50/50 split will soften the blow if NT is -30 and MNT makes +10 - but will not cover the loss... In this scenario assuming £1 a pip on both NT and MNT (50/50) then this would still result in a £20 overall loss (which of course is better than the alternative of the whole £2 a pip on NT which results in £60 loss)...

75/25 assuming MNT = +10pips @£3 per pip = £30 profit... NT -30 @ £1 per pip = £30 loss - overall no loss...

I guess it all depends upon how well NT has performed during the month - on good months you would be better favouring NT in the ratio... On bad NT months you would be better favouring MNT in the ratio...

Then of course it maybe worth considering a trailing stop on the NT part of the trade

M[/QUOTE]


Ok Mark/Mel, I understand now.

See spreadsheet. The yellow boxes you can enter your own bank, %age stake and what %age of the stake you want to put into MNT and NT.

As Mel suggests, doing 75% MNT and 25% NT, guarantees break even if MNT gets it's 10 pips and -30 happens for NT.

Col 1 (blue) shows profits for all closing values for both trades, and Col2 (green) shows all profit combinations, if +10 is banked by MNT, and NT carries on to 8.30, or Limit or Stop.

AND trailing the stop on the NT part of the trade...Oh my NED, I can just imagine the 400 page manual for that!

The systems detractors will point out the obvious, that the Risk/Reward ratio is 60/40 against you......

 

[mark120169]

M

The systems detractors will point out the obvious, that the Risk/Reward ratio is 60/40 against you......[/QUOTE]

True, TNT using 4% MM equal trades on NT + MNT would have a R/R of 60/60..........or 1/1. Still not great but we shall see what the results are by the end of the month.

One good thing about your 60/40 system is that it also fits in with vanilla NT philosophy of good MM, because as soon as you know MNT has banked 10 pips you also know that that days trade is impossible to lose money even if NT falls all the way back to -30 pips. But.........you also know it is also a possibility that NT can still get 50 pips giving you a 1:1 total win of 40 pips for 2% MM.

Interesting. throw in trailing stops occasionally for NT side for even better MM.

M

 

[peterf1966]

The systems detractors will point out the obvious, that the Risk/Reward ratio is 60/40 against you......

True, TNT using 4% MM equal trades on NT + MNT would have a R/R of 60/60..........or 1/1. Still not great but we shall see what the results are by the end of the month.

One good thing about your 60/40 system is that it also fits in with vanilla NT philosophy of good MM, because as soon as you know MNT has banked 10 pips you also know that that days trade is impossible to lose money even if NT falls all the way back to -30 pips. But.........you also know it is also a possibility that NT can still get 50 pips giving you a 1:1 total win of 40 pips for 2% MM.

Interesting. throw in trailing stops occasionally for NT side for even better MM.

M[/QUOTE]

It will need watchng, conditions could change which make NT the better option again, but while this market move of 10-20 pips after 6.30, then falls back, is happening, it may be well wotrth it.

BTW, I 'm not definitely sure about using the ETX fund to do this....one idea I did have was to bob along as I have been until next Monday or Tuesday, whichever day looks right for it, then using my whole £250 bank on one Net Trap trade, which would be a stake of £8.33 per pip...if it wins cool, if it hits +50, thats over £400, and if it loses anything, ETX will refund me anyway.

another btw, my attempt to cash in on the bounce back died at lunch time, I was up +32, so trailed stop to be +15 over entry - and it went back through this, still £15 better than a poke in the eye.

 

[mark120169]

It will need watchng, conditions could change which make NT the better option again, but while this market move of 10-20 pips after 6.30, then falls back, is happening, it may be well wotrth it.

BTW, I 'm not definitely sure about using the ETX fund to do this....one idea I did have was to bob along as I have been until next Monday or Tuesday, whichever day looks right for it, then using my whole £250 bank on one Net Trap trade, which would be a stake of £8.33 per pip...if it wins cool, if it hits +50, thats over £400, and if it loses anything, ETX will refund me anyway.

another btw, my attempt to cash in on the bounce back died at lunch time, I was up +32, so trailed stop to be +15 over entry - and it went back through this, still £15 better than a poke in the eye.[/QUOTE]


Ok I agree, am feeling brave so from tomorrow will try the new TNT 60/40 , but for sure if markets calm and NT throws out winners regularly again then will switch the TNT 1/1.

Will set a rule though now that if either TNT depleat bank by 20% (£300) and NT would have not also done the same alone, will switch back to NT on it's own.

M

 

[Melb]

Don't forget that although R:R maybe 60/60 or 60/40 - you have to take into account that it is likely this system will win <-> break even most days a trade is on... The winning percentage is a factor here also in terms of overall profitability...

 

[langmeadman]

Another difficult trade set up this morning: Clear buy signal but we are trading in quite a tight range since yesterday and market seems to want to move lower at this moment...

 

[SA Trader]

Do we agree on a BUY at 14425 ?

 

[langmeadman]

Do we agree on a BUY at 14425 ?

Yes, we're a long way away though...

 

[mark120169]

Do we agree on a BUY at 14425 ?

I got Buy 14426, thought round up on a buy round down on a sell to ensure entry direction is in your favour as best as possible? Unless you only have a 2 pip spread of course, then 14425.

M

 

[BigBrassBalls]

I got Buy 14426, thought round up on a buy round down on a sell to ensure entry direction is in your favour as best as possible? Unless you only have a 2 pip spread of course, then 14425.

M

Same, i'm buying at 14426. You in today, looks like he's cresting!