Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[Melb]

Fooking hell. Can't even get to the garden, swig a slurp of tea and pick up a handsaw without the mobile IG beeping me again.

15280 and 15285 breached now in one go so stopmoved to 15266 (+45) and alert set for 15290.

Try again to cut some wood.

M

Watch out for the US adjusted retail sales (less autos) release at 13:30 - if there is deviation from expected there will be a strong move.... Could be good - Could be bad! Also adjusted retail food and service AND US import price index all out the same time..

 

[Tanguero]

All going to plan now :cheesy:

SL moved to 15231 (+10) and limit now set to 15296 (+75). Alert set for 15280 to up SL to 15260 if it reaches that high.

How you getting on Tang? Back to the day job build custom door frames for a customer! Day rate is £100 labour (cheap know, current market i'm affraid) @ £2 pip this trade is making me more than the day job!!

M

Sneaking in and checking the numbers. Pulled SL up to 1.5245, good enough to be well in black today.

WE ARE ALMOST THERE!!!

 

[mark120169]

Sneaking in and checking the numbers. Pulled SL up to 1.5245, good enough to be well in black today.

WE ARE ALMOST THERE!!!

To MelB..........limit is @ 15296 so should be hit before 1.30 for +75

Tang......another beep on the mobile, 15290 now breached so SL moved to 15271 (+50)

Yes looking good, Today is profit now snatched for the jaws of a TNT loss.

M

 

[peterf1966]

Doh! my fingers hovered on the mouse earlier about to put another long in at 35...and then I hit cancel....ah well..as opposed to Mark the day job is making me more than the trading!

 

[mark120169]

To MelB..........limit is @ 15296 so should be hit before 1.30 for +75

Tang......another beep on the mobile, 15290 now breached so SL moved to 15271 (+50)

Yes looking good, Today is profit now snatched for the jaws of a TNT loss.

M

Awww shucks. Just stopped out for +50, it dropped to 267.6.

Hey ho. Well happy still finished they day @ +20 overall @ £2 pip, scaled +10 @ £4 pip. £40 bank in the pot for tomorrow.

TNT 50/50 +20

NT+D +50

INT -30

Have a good day all. Back to day job now before it poors with rain!

M

 

[Tanguero]

Last moment pulled up to 1.4275 and am now taken out. +70 pip x1.5 regular size, good offset to the -20 pip loss this morning. Phew. And well done Mark, the ducks deserve a treat today!

 

[mark120169]

MNT33S Mini Net Trap 33S lost today for July 2010


MNT33S +30 Wins x 6 loss x 1. Bank Rate July 86%

Buy 15225 Limit 15235 Stop 15195

M

 

[mark120169]

Off topic I just took a 11 month punt on UK house Prices for a laugh.

Took a June 2011 short on UK house prices. Sell 160 (£160000 average price i guess) Limit 140 (£140000 average price) stop 170 (£170000 average price)

Took the minimum which was £10 pip and the spead was 2.8 pips.

So am gambling that UK Average House prices will fall up to 13% within the next 11 months and not rise 6.5%.

Even though I rentered the housing market in March 2009 after going STR in August 2007 I think we are now heading for another drop.

With with the Condem's Austerity cuts, culls in public sector jobs, tightening of the credit markets, the FSA recent annoucment to ban Self Cert mortgages and force lenders not to allow new mortgage approvals based on Interest only without proof of capital repayment system (Just like it was in 96 when I bought my first house) I really can't see any way but down for HPI.

Oh....and HIPS has been scrapped giving rise to a return of 2007 and before practicies of properties being put on the market to "test the water". Rightmove report that there are now more sellers than buyers and as in anything that just sends prices one way.......down.

Should be fun! If i'm wrong I lose £100 but my house makes £1000's. Anyone else doing unusual spreadbets since starting with NT?

M

 

[Tanguero]

Isn't it just ridiculous?! The pound finally hit 1.5298, but only after dipping to just above 1.5200... Besides, those getting Cams off the IG charts indicator, what was today's R4? My numbers gave me 1.5302.

 

[mark120169]

Isn't it just ridiculous?! The pound finally hit 1.5298, but only after dipping to just above 1.5200... Besides, those getting Cams off the IG charts indicator, what was today's R4? My numbers gave me 1.5302.

My R4 was 15310.

M

 

[peterf1966]

Off topic I just took a 11 month punt on UK house Prices for a laugh.

Took a June 2011 short on UK house prices. Sell 160 (£160000 average price i guess) Limit 140 (£140000 average price) stop 170 (£170000 average price)

Took the minimum which was £10 pip and the spead was 2.8 pips.

So am gambling that UK Average House prices will fall up to 13% within the next 11 months and not rise 6.5%.

Even though I rentered the housing market in March 2009 after hoing STR in August 2007 I think we are now heading for another drop.

With with the Condem's Austerity cuts, culls in public sector jobs, tightening of the credit markets, the FSA recent annoucment to ban Self Cert mortgages and force lenders not to allow new mortgage approvals based on Interest only without proof of capital repayment system (Just like it was in 96 when I bought my first house) I really can't see any way but down for HPI.

Oh....and HIPS has been scrapped give rise to a return of 2007 and before practicies of properties being put on the market to "test the water". Rightmove report that there are now more sellers than buyers and as in anything that just sends prices one way.......down.

Should be fun! If i'm wrong I lose £100 but my house makes £1000's. Anyone else doing unusual spreadbets since starting with NT?

M

Not been doing unusual spread bets, but I am getting spammed to **** with offers to play online foxy bingo, or moon bingo, or whatever. Must be ' oh, he gambles, see if £20 of free bingo will tempt him'. Actually it might also be to do with me getting a paddy power account, tbh...I took up their free £25 bet offer, got 7/5 on David Milliband being next Labour leader just before big gay Gord stepped down. Dunno current odds. must check them. Bingo ?

 

[Trader333]

My set up shows R4 at 1.5304

It is interesting though that the weekly R3 is 1.5299


Paul

 

[Trader333]

but I am getting spammed to **** with offers to play online foxy bingo, or moon bingo

Have you subscribed to any female activity groups


Paul

 

[thelurker1]

Mark,

Do you have a full time job as well, as you seem to trade in the day and get all these **bonus** pips?

Just jealous:cheesy:

Was you who mentioned trading silver and goldmans?

I have been looking into trading shares on sb......longer time frame it is but not sure what happens if bet rolls over days/weeks to IG add a bit to the price. Need to look into this

Cheers

Off topic I just took a 11 month punt on UK house Prices for a laugh.

Took a June 2011 short on UK house prices. Sell 160 (£160000 average price i guess) Limit 140 (£140000 average price) stop 170 (£170000 average price)

Took the minimum which was £10 pip and the spead was 2.8 pips.

So am gambling that UK Average House prices will fall up to 13% within the next 11 months and not rise 6.5%.

Even though I rentered the housing market in March 2009 after going STR in August 2007 I think we are now heading for another drop.

With with the Condem's Austerity cuts, culls in public sector jobs, tightening of the credit markets, the FSA recent annoucment to ban Self Cert mortgages and force lenders not to allow new mortgage approvals based on Interest only without proof of capital repayment system (Just like it was in 96 when I bought my first house) I really can't see any way but down for HPI.

Oh....and HIPS has been scrapped giving rise to a return of 2007 and before practicies of properties being put on the market to "test the water". Rightmove report that there are now more sellers than buyers and as in anything that just sends prices one way.......down.

Should be fun! If i'm wrong I lose £100 but my house makes £1000's. Anyone else doing unusual spreadbets since starting with NT?

M

 

[goldfinger777]

Should be fun! If i'm wrong I lose £100 but my house makes £1000's. Anyone else doing unusual spreadbets since starting with NT?

M

I too believe that house prices are going down but I wouldn't like to put a timeframe on it. I think the recent Capital Gains Tax increase to 28% is the government trying to put a little bit of pressure on house prices without having to raise the base rate. Of course the CGT rise is for other reasons too (like increased tax revenue) but I think one of the main aims of the rise is to help bring house prices down to more affordable levels.

Regarding unusual spreadbets, my spreadbets on US stocks have really saved my behind this week, and offset most of my NT losses. I made 200pts on Monsanto in one day this week, that's as much as I made in the entire MONTH of June with NT/INT LOL!

Kind of puts NT in perspective really. For example, Google moved 1500 points yesterday. Thats 1500 pts in ONE DAY! Isn't that what NT makes in, like, one YEAR? LOL! So I'm trying to keep NT as my backup plan, and aiming to get much better at technical analysis and trading the trends on daily or weekly trades for proper triple digit pip gains.

 

[mark120169]

Mark,

Do you have a full time job as well, as you seem to trade in the day and get all these **bonus** pips?

Just jealous:cheesy:

Was you who mentioned trading silver and goldmans?

I have been looking into trading shares on sb......longer time frame it is but not sure what happens if bet rolls over days/weeks to IG add a bit to the price. Need to look into this

Cheers

Self employed and am developing a Ltd startup business since Novemeber, still building the website and applying to local district council and econonic gov thingys for start up grants. Products developed and business plan sorted though.

Self employed thing is small simple property conversions (void cupboards, alcove cupboards, car port / garage mezzanine conversions etc) in Newbuild houses, of which there have been thousands built in my local area the last 3 years and thousands more (another 15000) planned for the next 15 years.

I bought one of the 5 bed newbuilds and converted all the wasted space into storage last summer, then got requests from other local owners and turned it into small business. Nothing crazy, materials charged at 5% on cost and day rate labour is £100 day. started im March and average £1000 - £1500 a month. But have slack periods then three jobs all come at once. Fit this all round doing the school run for the kiddy every morning at after school care @ 3.30pm every day.

Wife does the good pay 9-5 job now! Hence NT, was looking for something easy to learn trading someting liquid and constant in my spare time, and stumbled on this via my moneyweek subscription a few months back.

Apart from getting moaned at by the wife about the house not being tidy enough life is ok. If I can build the NT pot up to £10 pip next 18 months or so will suprise the wife with it as it is my secret ATM. She is just impressed I get up @ 6.15 every day for my businesses!

Certainly a lot more laid back than when I had the £50k p/a sales managers job in the past. In fact redundancy in Mid 2009 was ok. Took time out to look at doing other things with the payout.

If you are smart and handy, and into financial things and the markets there is no excuse in the UK to not earn money somehow. I know of unemployed tradesmen in the local area who could have developed my simple conversions business but just could not see the "products" developed.

If you want a laugh go to Youtube and search on HP199DF. You will find all my e-marketing videos for the business "BP Conversions". Simple plan. Makes money even in 2010 tough times.

The Ltd business is more complex but low capital costs so we shall see.

M

 

[Trader333]

I think the recent Capital Gains Tax increase to 28% is the government trying to put a little bit of pressure on house prices without having to raise the base rate. Of course the CGT rise is for other reasons too (like increased tax revenue) but I think one of the main aims of the rise is to help bring house prices down to more affordable levels.

There is no logical reasoning behind this. For a start the government is not involved in interest rate levels as it is now determined by the BOE. CGT at 28% only applies to higher rate tax payers which is not the majority of house owners.

If prices drop by any significant amount the end result will be disastrous with the new deposit requirements that are going to come in. It appears likely that there will be a requirement for 25% deposit to get a mortgage which will immediately kill off 40% of first time buyers. If you then add all those who have a mortgage that do not have 25% net equity in their house then they will be unable to move. I don't disagree that prices will start to fall but this will be highly polarised. Those who have property with high net equity will just hang onto what they have and it is those wanting to get on the ladder or are in their first home who will get shafted by this which is why it makes no sense as a policy in my view.


Paul

 

[goldfinger777]

There is no logical reasoning behind this. For a start the government is not involved in interest rate levels as it is now determined by the BOE. CGT at 28% only applies to higher rate tax payers which is not the majority of house owners.
Paul

There is a very logical reason behind it. I'm referring to CGT for people that own second homes. By increasing the amount people get taxed when they sell additional properties it will discourage property speculation and buy to let, 2 things that have contributed to sky-high property prices.

Regarding your comment about government having no involvement in setting interest rates. Do you really believe that? Seriously? IN THEORY it's a purely BOE decision but in reality it's a little more complicated than that. For example, raising the base rate impacts the rest of the yield curve and therefore the amount of interest that the government pays on its debt. So the government and BOE work very closely together to ensure that the base rate is accommodative for all interested parties.

Of course, when you're running £200 billion of quantitative easing you want to keep the base rate low to make monetary policy as accommodative as possible. The banks benefit because they get to recapitalise after the 2008 crash by borrowing money from the BOE at 0% and then buying government debt at the steep end of the yield curve and getting nearly 4% interest. That's a 4% spread for the banks for doing nothing. And the government gets a guaranteed buyer of its debt in the form of the banks. Everyone's a winner as they say (apart from the tax payer). Of course, such accommodative monetary policy also encourages capital flight out of the UK on the carry trades, but that's another matter...

 

[mark120169]

There is no logical reasoning behind this. For a start the government is not involved in interest rate levels as it is now determined by the BOE. CGT at 28% only applies to higher rate tax payers which is not the majority of house owners.

If prices drop by any significant amount the end result will be disastrous with the new deposit requirements that are going to come in. It appears likely that there will be a requirement for 25% deposit to get a mortgage which will immediately kill off 40% of first time buyers. If you then add all those who have a mortgage that do not have 25% net equity in their house then they will be unable to move. I don't disagree that prices will start to fall but this will be highly polarised. Those who have property with high net equity will just hang onto what they have and it is those wanting to get on the ladder or are in their first home who will get shafted by this which is why it makes no sense as a policy in my view.


Paul

I disagee........prices will adjust downwards to meet the new constraints. HPI is a ponzi scheme ands cant go on for ever. The problem was not the deposit since 1999 but the income multiples, they have not sought to restrict this. There are two choices to deflate an vastly overpriced housing market that we have, increase deposit requirements to slow demand but leave higher income mutiples available (X4 X 5 joint income) or leave 10%deposits on the table but enforce strict income multiples of X3 joint salary max.

The effect is the same, credit will not be able to fund the full purchase price of the current house prices so prices will universaly fall.

My family house has 50% equity (untapped , i'm a good boy). This is paper money, it matters not if my house falls in price 40%, as long as all others fall 40% too.

Like all over priced assets someone has to have bought at the wrong time and gets caught for a loss, thats the free market. My sister bought a 1 bed house in 1988 and it took her until 1999 for it to be worth what she paid for it so she could sell it. Same thing will happen this time.

M

edit. Actually by banning self cert mortgages for those with out a few years of audited accounts they have seriously restricted borrowing multiples becasue even with a 25% deposit loads of people need to overstate the family income to X 6 X7 to get the mortgage for the other 75%. It's these suckers I feel sorry for. And aplogies if anyone here is someone who did this, I have a best mate who did this in 2006 despite my warnings and lives his overcrowed family life on a knife edge now. It is not pleasant to see people doing this to themselves becasue they think prices can rise 8%=10% p/a for ever. They have no understanding of compounding!

 

[goldfinger777]

I disagee........prices will adjust downwards to meet the new constaints. HPI is a ponzi scheme ands cant go on for ever. The problem was not the deposit since 1999 but the income multiples, they have not sought to restrict this. There are two choices to deflate an vastly overpriced housing market that we have, increase deposit requirements to slow demand but leave higher income mutiples available (X4 X 5 joint income) or leave 10%deposits on the table but enforce strict income multiples of X3 joint salary max.

The effect is the same, credit will not be able to fund the full purchase price of the current house prices so prices will univerally fall.

M

I agree, spot-on. Affordability is the key.