Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[goldfinger777]

now i'm confused, I thought INT was vanilla NT but you enter the market straight away at 6.30 or just before depending where the price is. So you go in with -30 stop and +50limit

???

You're right about entering the market immediately but the other aspect to INT is that the LIMIT is always set to +25. INT has always been +25.

 

[stacey07]

Hi All INT guys.

I have an observation,would be interested in your comments. Today I believe was very similar to the 28 th June, strong buy signal ( 8 points on MA40 no negative candles ) but line was very flat.

I think it was Mike who posted a link to the camarilla equations at earnforex, so have be calculating them based on 8.00 am to 22.00 hours. If I am calculating right both today and 28 th June was bouncing between R1 and S1 since early morning and then carried on like this till after 9.00 am.

So depending on your entry point you could win like today because 6.30 was close to S1, but I believe some got caught out on the 28 th because we went long close to R1. But on the 28 th if INT guys waited and went in around S1 at around 7.00 am we could have made 40 pips.

My calculation today was S1 15146 ( interesting earlier low today156) and R1 15204 ( earlier high today 199).

Same on 28 th June R1 15063 ( earlier high 15070 ) and S1 15022 ( earlier low 15030)
:?:

I take the camarilla points as a guide not absolute so maybe +/- 10 pips

Cheers

 

[thelurker1]

That's ok. I trying to be clever jumped in @ 6.20 when the 1 min candle appeared to be rising so thought it might be a leg up so entered @ 15158.

6.40 would have been around the same and would have banked by 8.12. You were glued to the screen I can tell and bottled it.


M

Closed out at 8:05

 

[peterf1966]

now i'm confused, I thought INT was vanilla NT but you enter the market straight away at 6.30 or just before depending where the price is. So you go in with -30 stop and +50limit

???

INT has a 25 pip target/30 stop.

INT with the 50 target, is what I jokingly congratulated Big Dunc with inventing this morning, INT(50)

I must admit, INT has alot going for it, eg this morning is scooped 25pips well before we closed Vanilla NT for around 20-23.

 

[peterf1966]

Hi All INT guys.


I take the camarilla points as a guide not absolute so maybe +/- 10 pips

Yes worth looking at, although for me yesterday I suffered from classic Analysis Paraylsis - NT telling me to go short for 50 pips, CAMs telling me support was nearby, and so missed the breakout.

Welcome anyway, although there is an unofficial rule that we don't mention the XXMA figure, we should refer to it as the 'Scottish MA'.

 

[goldfinger777]

INT has a 25 pip target/30 stop.

INT with the 50 target, is what I jokingly congratulated Big Dunc with inventing this morning, INT(50)

INT 50 is nice in theory but in practice it isn't quite so nice unfortunately. For example, in June there were 4 trading days when INT(50) would've bagged the 50 pts. But overall it would've been operating at a loss for the month.

The beauty of INT is that it grabs you 25 points and pulls you out the market before it reverses on you. Another great thing about INT is that it avoids slippage on entry. So many posts in this forum have been about people moaning about the slippage on orders (especially from IG). INT solves that.

NT is greedy with its 50 pt target. And in volatile markets like we're currently experiencing, that target is just too ambitious IMHO. Hence INT.

 

[mark120169]

Mark or goldfinger, whoevers got the stats

how many days has INT won and MNT not? if thats the correct question...

basically, I'm wondering if theres a case for INT with the higher profit target..

eg if MNT enters at the standard +'X' pips with a +10 and INT enters at market with a +10 then what would the result have been if, we combined the 2 and entered at market with a profit target of +10 official over the trigger point.

that wouldnt take the target any higher than MNT but would /may give you extra pips on the bottom side...

All data only back to when I started NT 17/5/10.

For above question one day. Thursday 10/6/10 . Buy order MNT33S & NT both stopped out for -30 pips. INT avoided stop due to lower entry and market rebounded to bank +25 pips.

There have also been three days where MNT33S banked 10 pips and INT missed target and went onto a losses, so -90 pips.

Three days where INT lost and MNT did not tigger as NT,

All other trade Days INT / MNT either bank together or lose together.

MNT33s has higher bank rate, INT has better overall RR profit.

M

 

[Rugby Trader]

INT 50 is nice in theory but in practice it isn't quite so nice unfortunately. For example, in June there were 4 trading days when INT(50) would've bagged the 50 pts. But overall it would've been operating at a loss for the month.

The beauty of INT is that it grabs you 25 points and pulls you out the market before it reverses on you. Another great thing about INT is that it avoids slippage on entry. So many posts in this forum have been about people moaning about the slippage on orders (especially from IG). INT solves that.

NT is greedy with its 50 pt target. And in volatile markets like we're currently experiencing, that target is just too ambitious IMHO. Hence INT.

I certainly don't think it is greedy with a 50 pt target, it's just using sensible Risk:Reward ratio, unlike MNT and MINT (no offence Mark).

Plus the aim isn't to get 50 pips everyday, that's impossible. The aim is to generate a positive return which in general it has been doing. It limits losses but allows for greater returns.

I must say though I do find INT very interesting, even if the R:R is skewed. I think I'm going to papertrade it for a 2 or 3 months to see how it goes.

 

[goldfinger777]

I certainly don't think it is greedy with a 50 pt target, it's just using sensible Risk:Reward ratio, unlike MNT and MINT (no offence Mark).

Plus the aim isn't to get 50 pips everyday, that's impossible. The aim is to generate a positive return which in general it has been doing. It limits losses but allows for greater returns.

I must say though I do find INT very interesting, even if the R:R is skewed. I think I'm going to papertrade it for a 2 or 3 months to see how it goes.

Fair point. I would LOVE to know how well INT would've done on all those months last year when NT performed well. For example, in those months where NT was grabbing 300+ points (according to RH). The theoretical maximum for INT is 500 pts a month. Of course, this will never happen, but would it, for example, have banked 400 pts in months when NT got 150 to 450 points?

Can anyone back test this? Has anyone got a non-trial version of that Forextester software that was discussed recently on this forum?

 

[mark120169]

INT 50 is nice in theory but in practice it isn't quite so nice unfortunately. For example, in June there were 4 trading days when INT(50) would've bagged the 50 pts. But overall it would've been operating at a loss for the month.

The beauty of INT is that it grabs you 25 points and pulls you out the market before it reverses on you. Another great thing about INT is that it avoids slippage on entry. So many posts in this forum have been about people moaning about the slippage on orders (especially from IG). INT solves that.

NT is greedy with its 50 pt target. And in volatile markets like we're currently experiencing, that target is just too ambitious IMHO. Hence INT.

Agree. Due to the removal of the 2nd tier safety stop with INT any higher limit will lower the bank rate make the RR ratio more vunerable, any lower limit will higher the bank rate but increase the RR ratio.

For sure their is an optimum on a back test. But the live market has no respect for what happened in the past.

But as GF777 has no doubt played with this in June data and I confirm his INT data as it is then I recomend sticking with it until it appears to faulter then maybe make a few pips tweak up or down.

Just as some people trade MNT now with 15 pips, anyone can try a different INT limit if they want.

For the record INT has a better profit record than MINT by 92.5 pips since 17/5/10. So I guess this may prove the point.

M

 

[peterf1966]

I certainly don't think it is greedy with a 50 pt target, it's just using sensible Risk:Reward ratio, unlike MNT and MINT (no offence Mark).

Plus the aim isn't to get 50 pips everyday, that's impossible. The aim is to generate a positive return which in general it has been doing. It limits losses but allows for greater returns.

I must say though I do find INT very interesting, even if the R:R is skewed. I think I'm going to papertrade it for a 2 or 3 months to see how it goes.

Correct on the aim, 50 pips is not the target every day, I think that would require a breakthrough of a few S or R levels every day. What is does do on days like yesterday, is boost the average pip count up, which is what it's all about.

I'm fairly sure that back in the day, RH must have run all the variants we have come up with here, to arrive at -30/50..but that was then, and the volatility increase has lead to INT proving more profitable at this time - a 2-3 month paper trade is sensible of course, but doesn't mean INT will remain profitable over NT in the long run. Might do, might not, only time will tell.

 

[mark120169]

I must say though I do find INT very interesting, even if the R:R is skewed. I think I'm going to papertrade it for a 2 or 3 months to see how it goes.

If you want June 2010 results daily matched to RH trade days PM me and I will email you the data on a spreadsheet..

M

 

[goldfinger777]

a 2-3 month paper trade is sensible of course, but doesn't mean INT will remain profitable over NT in the long run. Might do, might not, only time will tell.

Very true. INT is not for everyone, depends on your attitude to risk. But hopefully the fact that it retains the "Set and Forget" nature of NT will be beneficial for some people. Definitely needs proving out over a longer period. I continue to paper trade vanilla NT. As soon as I get a month where NT is in overall profit for the month but INT records an overall loss for the month, I will seriously reconsider.

Until then, I trade as follows:

* INT on NT trade days, UNLESS the MA Spread is 1.
* When it is an NT trade day but MA Spread is only 1, I trade MINT instead.
* On "no-trade" NT days I apply MINT to the EUR/USD market instead.

This approach worked really well in June. Of course, that's not to say it will continue to do so, but as you so rightly say, only time will tell.

 

[gbdru2]

Yes there is a case to justify aiming for +25 with INT. As far as I can tell in June, MNT would've banked +140pts, whereas INT banked approx +225 pips. Oh, and you would have to run a 33pt stop with MNT on sell days as advised by Mark, otherwise MNT would've been poor in June. So you have to risk more on your stop with MNT.

you are running with the standard -30 ?

what about as you are entering lower, matching the stop with the official -30 point, should put yours at say at 20-25 which makes the R/R much nicer?

 

[mark120169]

you are running with the standard -30 ?

what about as you are entering lower, matching the stop with the official -30 point, should put yours at say at 20-25 which makes the R/R much nicer?

It depends on how often the event of 10/6/10 happens. As it is a stop of 25 on this day would have also taken INT into a -30 loss. This would make a -55 pips difference to the June INT result, which is alot.

Sorry edit. Scratch this middle bit I am being thick! Start again properly.

OK INT has 4 max loss days in June, so a stop at 25 would have saved you +20 pips. But you would have lost the above trade and gained -55 pips. So you would have been -30 pips worse off.

So apart from making you feel good about having a positive or even RR ratio this is infact todate a negative for profit return.

M

p.s Thanks for defending us a bit on the SFT forum. I agree with you. They are waining with the purity, soon as Peter would say " They will turn to the dark side of the Net Trap Force"

 

[goldfinger777]

you are running with the standard -30 ?

what about as you are entering lower, matching the stop with the official -30 point, should put yours at say at 20-25 which makes the R/R much nicer?

I don't know, it needs back testing.

Personally I'm very comfortable with the R:R I get from a 30pt stop and 25pt limit. Many traders would be very unhappy with this ratio, but certainly in the case of June the results speak for themselves.

Ultimately, it all depends on your personal attitude to risk.

An INT loss only puts you back a little over 1 day's worth of profit. If you are running sensible risk management on your trading account (i.e. ideally 1% MM, but certainly no more than 2% MM), then with INT's average win rate I would say the risk is actually pretty low.

As myself and others on this forum have said several times, only time will tell. And only you know what your personal attitude to risk is, and whether it matches the INT approach.

If you personally consider the INT strategy to be too risky, then you shouldn't trade it. Simple as that.

 

[pseudo straddle]

Welcome anyway, although there is an unofficial rule that we don't mention the XXMA figure, we should refer to it as the 'Scottish MA'.

Ah yes, but that doesn't go anywhere near High Wycombe or Beaconsfield!



PS - It's being so daft that keeps me going - although Senapods do help!!

 

[peterf1966]

Very true. INT is not for everyone, depends on your attitude to risk. But hopefully the fact that it retains the "Set and Forget" nature of NT will be beneficial for some people. Definitely needs proving out over a longer period. I continue to paper trade vanilla NT. As soon as I get a month where NT is in overall profit for the month but INT records an overall loss for the month, I will seriously reconsider.

Until then, I trade as follows:

* INT on NT trade days, UNLESS the MA Spread is 1.
* When it is an NT trade day but MA Spread is only 1, I trade MINT instead.
* On "no-trade" NT days I apply MINT to the EUR/USD market instead.

This approach worked really well in June. Of course, that's not to say it will continue to do so, but as you so rightly say, only time will tell.

INT has a variable across different people, that you enter at a level that will vary depending whether its 6.25, 6.28, 6.31 or whatever. Should you (just to compare like for like each day, and not with vanilla NT) enter the market bang on 6.30 every day, or am I being pedantic? As we know, a few pips difference could be the difference between -30 and +25.

 

[BigDunc]

* On "no-trade" NT days I apply MINT to the EUR/USD market instead.

What's your criteria for this? Aren't they an hour ahead of us so you're effectively dealing at a different time of day?

 

[peterf1966]

Ah yes, but that doesn't go anywhere near High Wycombe or Beaconsfield!



PS - It's being so daft that keeps me going - although Senapods do help!!

Doh, he's given it away again....London Orbital MA then, near enough? :cheesy: