Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

Phew, a mate just said to me!

Why don't you issue a challenge, anyone trading this system (vanilla Net Trap) a year from today who can show you their profit statement, offer them double their money with the downside that if they pull out within a year or are showing a loss after a year they have to give you double their loss at that point.

Thought I would post to see what the interest is, out of interest!

W
 
gbdru2 said:
Hi Mike,

interesting and I have to say I agree with a lot of what you write, but a few comments questions given your experience

".... although I’m still a little nervous with the 33s"

How would you recommend people place their stops? we've seen big swings and small swings, so any less and people might get stopped out more often.. How or what to do when the majority are not able to, or want to, monitor the trade and adjust manually?

And even then, given the swings we've had and the platform most use *IG Index etc, do you have any suggestion of a better way?

Following on from that

"....A maximum profit of around +63 pips was available at 10.00am."

Again, for those that cant watch, how would you see a way of catch the bigger move?

And as to the 50 pips every day, no you're right, never going to get there. But, how do you best capture those that are available during the time frame.

And lets not forget, even if you dont get the full lot, the system has proven profitable over period its been running (see the other posts for results etc). For people that know nothing about forex, some that dont care even, its a very simple way to 'invest' that's giving returns far better than any bank

In terms of Richard, I actually dont care if he's here or not, or whether people have bought the book. I did because I respect people's intellectual property, but likewise I'm sure I've learned a few systems via the back door over the years.

It doesn't matter really, they come, they go, you try them, you move on etc etc - But I will say this - you have to ask why would you sell and system and then give the signals away free on a forum

All in the spirit of peace love and education

:D
Click to expand...

The 33s may well prove to be a good strategy - I'm still monitoring this setting and so too early tell. It may well protect you from the relatively minor swings at that time of the day. It's just that "on paper", the risk/reward makes me nervous. Time will tell and I haven't done any back-checking as of yet.

As I've said, I personally don't usually go for the big pips but focus on smaller, regular pips eg +10 pips. It's much more realistic and achiveable.

Good day Sir,
Mike
 
MikesDirect said:
The 33s may well prove to be a good strategy - I'm still monitoring this setting and so too early tell. It may well protect you from the relatively minor swings at that time of the day. It's just that "on paper", the risk/reward makes me nervous. Time will tell and I haven't done any back-checking as of yet.

As I've said, I personally don't usually go for the big pips but focus on smaller, regular pips eg +10 pips. It's much more realistic and achiveable.

Good day Sir,
Mike
Click to expand...

yep, its pretty crap in terms of r/r but given the swings then it seems to work so far.
 
For anyone that's interested in learning how to trade for themselves attached is a chart of todays e mini S&P future. The red lines are support and resistance (in this example derived from market profile) and the PIN bars are marked off, there are 3 in all, all were profitable scalps.
 

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On Mark's MNT - he's off having jelly and cake today - the thinking behind it was, that there was a sudden and noticable very early movement (ie just after 6.30) where 10 pips could easily be banked, and this would run alongside NT which then went on to 50 pip target.

I doubt RH envisages a full 50 pips every day anyway, but what many started to notice was that we would get into a good profit position, but those who could watch the screen couldn't do anything about locking it in, as the system promotes set and forget, till 8.30.
Fine if you cannot watch the screen, frustrating if you can. So for those that can came the variants.

My problem with MNT is the big loss when NT loses, ie the R/R.

Question for Mark then. Could you backtest MNT without the stop loss of 30? On the days when the level carries on quickly in the direction of the NT trade, the stop loss level is not troubled, but on the days when you get a reversal upon opening, would a smaller stop loss be better, 15 or 20 perhaps?

Would this have helped you over the last week, where you had double TNT whammies - yes - less loss, but how would it affect days when MNT won? Have there been days when MNT was down by over 15-20 pips, then came back to bank 10, and then NT went on to lose? Complex eh?:eek:
 
pboyles said:
For anyone that's interested in learning how to trade for themselves attached is a chart of todays e mini S&P future. The red lines are support and resistance (in this example derived from market profile) and the PIN bars are marked off, there are 3 in all, all were profitable scalps.
Click to expand...

Many thanks pboyles for taking the time for these most informative posts,much appreciated . (please keep them coming - eager audience awaits ) (y)
 
peterf1966 said:
On Mark's MNT - he's off having jelly and cake today - the thinking behind it was, that there was a sudden and noticable very early movement (ie just after 6.30) where 10 pips could easily be banked, and this would run alongside NT which then went on to 50 pip target.

I doubt RH envisages a full 50 pips every day anyway, but what many started to notice was that we would get into a good profit position, but those who could watch the screen couldn't do anything about locking it in, as the system promotes set and forget, till 8.30.
Fine if you cannot watch the screen, frustrating if you can. So for those that can came the variants.

My problem with MNT is the big loss when NT loses, ie the R/R.

Question for Mark then. Could you backtest MNT without the stop loss of 30? On the days when the level carries on quickly in the direction of the NT trade, the stop loss level is not troubled, but on the days when you get a reversal upon opening, would a smaller stop loss be better, 15 or 20 perhaps?

Would this have helped you over the last week, where you had double TNT whammies - yes - less loss, but how would it affect days when MNT won? Have there been days when MNT was down by over 15-20 pips, then came back to bank 10, and then NT went on to lose? Complex eh?:eek:
Click to expand...

What I would like to know is how successful would it be if you just used a 10 stop loss on MNT and MINT
 
pboyles said:
For anyone that's interested in learning how to trade for themselves attached is a chart of todays e mini S&P future. The red lines are support and resistance (in this example derived from market profile) and the PIN bars are marked off, there are 3 in all, all were profitable scalps.
Click to expand...

A few questions for a fellow newbie....

So when it hits the top line we go short and when hits the bottom line we go long?

How do you plot this stuff live on IG index........ Is this possible?

Can we enter numbers into a calculator to create the S+R levels and how long does it take to set up?

Is this sort of analysis similar to the Camarilla equation and do you use previous days/hours/15 mins highs/lows etc?

Thanks:)
 
thelurker1 said:
A few questions for a fellow newbie....

So when it hits the top line we go short and when hits the bottom line we go long?

How do you plot this stuff live on IG index........ Is this possible?

Can we enter numbers into a calculator to create the S+R levels and how long does it take to set up?

Is this sort of analysis similar to the Camarilla equation and do you use previous days/hours/15 mins highs/lows etc?

Thanks:)
Click to expand...

Not exactly, when it got to the upper line I looked for a PIN bar to go short, then when it got to the lower line I looked for a PIN bar to go long. The lines themselves in this instance were calculated from market profile but the same principle applies to any other support and resistance level including pivot points.

I use weekly pivot points so I only have to add them to my chart on a Saturday as they are good for the whole week. At the weekends I will also look for other support and resistance levels and plot them, then at the end of every day I look for any new support and resistance levels and plot them. The market profile changes every day but I think you should concentrate on simpler stuff to begin with.

These are just lines I have drawn so any platform can do it, you can calculate your weekly pivots using the pivot point calculator on mypivots.com for other support and resistance you need to look at a 4 hour and daily chart and see where price turned around previously, they should be apparent, if you have to think is it or isnt it a level then you should ignore it.
 
kpk said:
Me Too :) , due to the resistance around the 1.50 i am only using MNT also i don't wait till 6.30 , this morning i placed at 6.26am and got 48.
Click to expand...

Sorry yes I cheated slightly and placed a MINT before 6.30 at a higher level which banked. But I was in a rush today and left the house @ 7.20am.

So when I saw the MINT banked I posted MNT had banked as the chart showed it going below 32 ,MNT entry was NT @ 42.

But others may be right, forgot about spread so infact MNT would not have banked until Ask got to 32, not sure if it did?

Will check the ask chart. Apologies If i called a false MNT, dont want to do a RH on ya :LOL:

M
 
So my mate was right, No one confidently believes they will be trading Net Trap in 12 months time and that they will be making a profit. An interesting exercise nevertheless.

W
 
wilczek said:
So my mate was right, No one confidently believes they will be trading Net Trap in 12 months time and that they will be making a profit. An interesting exercise nevertheless.

W
Click to expand...

My backtesting has shown it works well over several years, so I can't see any reason not to be trading it in 12 months. Bad runs like this month are inevitable with a system with this win rate, which have happened before and will happen again.
 
peterf1966 said:
On Mark's MNT - he's off having jelly and cake today - the thinking behind it was, that there was a sudden and noticable very early movement (ie just after 6.30) where 10 pips could easily be banked, and this would run alongside NT which then went on to 50 pip target.

I doubt RH envisages a full 50 pips every day anyway, but what many started to notice was that we would get into a good profit position, but those who could watch the screen couldn't do anything about locking it in, as the system promotes set and forget, till 8.30.
Fine if you cannot watch the screen, frustrating if you can. So for those that can came the variants.

My problem with MNT is the big loss when NT loses, ie the R/R.

Question for Mark then. Could you backtest MNT without the stop loss of 30? On the days when the level carries on quickly in the direction of the NT trade, the stop loss level is not troubled, but on the days when you get a reversal upon opening, would a smaller stop loss be better, 15 or 20 perhaps?

Would this have helped you over the last week, where you had double TNT whammies - yes - less loss, but how would it affect days when MNT won? Have there been days when MNT was down by over 15-20 pips, then came back to bank 10, and then NT went on to lose? Complex eh?:eek:
Click to expand...

Peter, I've tested MNT but with a target of 15 rather than 10 but still with a 30 stop, and with this negative R:R it made a tiny profit compared to regular NT. Obviously though 10 target will have a higher hit rate, but with this R:R needs 75%+ win rate which has always bothered me. That said, trading with negative edge can work. I trade a pivot system of my own, which has a stop which is double the limit, but has a win rate of well over 80% so works well.

I'll try some testing tomorrow of 10 target, 20 stop (if the markets are quiet) and report back.

W.
 
Wagtail said:
Peter, I've tested MNT but with a target of 15 rather than 10 but still with a 30 stop, and with this negative R:R it made a tiny profit compared to regular NT. Obviously though 10 target will have a higher hit rate, but with this R:R needs 75%+ win rate which has always bothered me. That said, trading with negative edge can work. I trade a pivot system of my own, which has a stop which is double the limit, but has a win rate of well over 80% so works well.

I'll try some testing tomorrow of 10 target, 20 stop (if the markets are quiet) and report back.

W.
Click to expand...

Just quickly tested July-September 09 with 10 target, 20 stop, and it is profitable, but win rate is just 72% (needs to be at least 67% to break even) and profit factor is 1.25, so nothing to get excited about, and nothing yet to tempt me out of regular NT.

Hope you find this helpful.

W.
 
Wagtail said:
Peter, I've tested MNT but with a target of 15 rather than 10 but still with a 30 stop, and with this negative R:R it made a tiny profit compared to regular NT. Obviously though 10 target will have a higher hit rate, but with this R:R needs 75%+ win rate which has always bothered me. That said, trading with negative edge can work. I trade a pivot system of my own, which has a stop which is double the limit, but has a win rate of well over 80% so works well.

I'll try some testing tomorrow of 10 target, 20 stop (if the markets are quiet) and report back.

W.
Click to expand...

Last I checked MNT33S had a win rate of 91% for the live testing june and back testing early june to mid May. But that was before last week happened so will have to check my spreadsheet and update.

MNT is only running a few pips better than NT for June, would not really recommend using it on sell orders, the 27 pip stop travel causes it issues.

As for MNT bigger limit or smaller stop, have not tested it but my gut tells me neither will work, one will not bank enough, one will get stopped out to often .If anyone has accurate back test facilities and can find a better solution the MNT33S please tell.

M
 
mark120169 said:
Last I checked MNT33S had a win rate of 91% for the live testing june and back testing early june to mid May. But that was before last week happened so will have to check my spreadsheet and update.

MNT is only running a few pips better than NT for June, would not really recommend using it on sell orders, the 27 pip stop travel causes it issues.

As for MNT bigger limit or smaller stop, have not tested it but my gut tells me neither will work, one will not bank enough, one will get stopped out to often .If anyone has accurate back test facilities and can find a better solution the MNT33S please tell.

M
Click to expand...

A link for accurate back testing facilties: www.forextester.com
 
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