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FUNDAMENTAL NEWS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT - 02 JANUARY​

THE FINANCE MINISTER OF GERMANY FORECASTS 7% INFLATION IN 2023​

Asian stock market closes in green on Friday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.51% at 3073.70. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is flat 0.00% at 288.35. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 0.20% at 19741.14. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is flat 0.00 at 26093.67. While the Topix index is down 0.19% at 1895.27 South Korea’s Kospi is down 0.48% at 2236.40. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.26% at 7020.10.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY:​

Germany’s finance minister expects inflation in Europe’s biggest economy to drop to 7% this year and to continue falling in 2024 and beyond, but believes high energy prices will become the new normal.

“The target remains 2%. This must be a top priority for the European Central Bank and the German government,” Christian Lindner said in an interview with Bild newspaper published on Sunday.

Pushed by spiking energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and falling Russian energy exports, Germany’s year-on-year inflation has slowed slightly in November to 11.3% from a high of 11.6% the month prior.

Lindner said Germany needs an “unbiased” energy policy in order to keep industry ticking, adding that domestic gas and oil fracking and nuclear energy should be considered in the energy sources mix along with renewables.

​

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – BUY AT 1.20759, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.21045, SL AT 1.20586


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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report – 24 January 2023​

THE DOLLAR STRUGGLES AS THE EURO APPROACHES A NINE-MONTH HIGH AND THE YEN RISE.​

Asian stock market closes in green on Monday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.76% at 3264.81. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is up 0.69% at 303.88. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 1.82% at 22044.65. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 1.33 at 26906.04. While the Topix index is up 0.96% at 1945.38 South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.63% at 2395.26. Australia S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.68% at 7457.30.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY:​

The dollar hovered near a nine-month low to the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen on Tuesday, as traders weighed the risks of a U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy.

The U.S. dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, including the euro and yen – slipped 0.12% to 101.89, heading back towards the 7-1/2-month low of 101.51 reached last week.

The euro added 0.08% to $1.0880, taking it closer to Monday’s peak of $1.0927, the strongest since April.

“The U.S. is no longer the cleanest shirt in the global economic laundry,” said Ray Attrill, head of the foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC: NABZY), who expects the dollar index to fall to 100 by end-March and the euro to rise to $1.10.

“That’s integral to our bearish U.S. dollar view, that the U.S. is not going to be the global growth leader.”

Money market traders see only two more quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, with two quarter-point cuts following before year-end. The Fed has insisted 75 basis points of more tightening is likely on the way.

By contrast, Europe’s single currency has been buoyed by comments from European Central Bank officials pointing to further aggressive policy tightening.

The latest was ECB President Christine Lagarde, who on Monday reiterated that the central bank will keep raising interest rates quickly to slow inflation, which remains far too high.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – BUY AT 1.23440, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.24294, SL AT 1.22842

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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report – 26 January 2023​

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THE DOLLAR SWAYS CLOSE TO AN EIGHT-MONTH LOW AHEAD OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS.​

Asian stock market closes in green on Wednesday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.76% at 3264.81. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is down 0.51% at 298.38. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 1.82% at 22044.65. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.35 at 27395.01. While the Topix index is up 0.39% at 1980.69, South Korea’s Kospi is up 1.39% at 2428.57. Australia S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.30% at 7468.30.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY:​

The dollar held close to an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, inched 0.1% higher to 101.65, after falling as low as 101.52 earlier in the session, testing last week’s eight-month trough of 101.51.

Trading was thin, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year.

Downbeat earnings and guidance from U.S. companies and a string of tech sector layoffs have deepened fears of a sharp economic downturn in the United States, leading investors to pare back expectations on how much longer the Federal Reserve will need to aggressively raise interest rates.

“There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner,” said economists at Wells Fargo.

“With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies.”

The Fed’s policy-setting committee will begin a two-day meeting next week, and markets have priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate hike, a step down from the central bank’s 50 bps and 75 bps increases seen last year.

Market Summary as per 25/01/2023:

European equities Wednesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded down 0.08% at 15081.64, CAC 40 futures down 0.09% at 7043.88. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.16 at 7744.87

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed up 0.03% at 33743.84. The S&P 500 down 0.02% at 4016.22 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.18% at 11313.36, NYSE 0.13% closes at 15889.27.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – BUY AT 1.23990, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.24775, SL AT 1.23286

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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report – 27 January 2023​

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BOJ USES THE FUNDS-SUPPLY WEAPON ONCE MORE AS YIELDS BEGIN TO RISE.​

Asian stock market closes in green on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.76% at 3264.81. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is up 0.68% at 308.52. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 2.37% at 22566.78. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 0.12 at 27362.75. While the Topix index is down 0.12% at 1978.40, South Korea’s Kospi is up 1.65% at 2468.65. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.30% at 7468.30.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

The Bank of Japan said on Friday it will extend five-year loans against collateral to financial institutions, the second time it has made such an offer after ramping up the funds-supply operation this month to defend its yield control policy.

The announcement underscores the central bank’s resolve to prevent simmering market speculation of a near-term interest rate hike from pushing up bond yields too much.

The BOJ will conduct the funds-supply operation on Tuesday, under which it will offer loans with a five-year duration from Feb. 1, it said in a statement.

The amount of loans to be offered will be announced on Tuesday, it added.

The announcement came after the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield crept up near the BOJ’s 0.5% cap on Friday, partly on data showing core consumer inflation in the capital Tokyo hit a near 42-year high of 4.3% in January.

In the previous offer made on Monday, the BOJ extended five-year loans worth 3.13 trillion yen ($24.09 billion). The minimum bid interest rate was 0.110%.

At this month’s policy meeting, the BOJ amended rules for the funds-supply operation, so it can pump funds extending up to 10 years to financial institutions against collateral.

Market Summary as per 26/01/2023:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.34% at 15132.85, CAC 40 futures up 0.74% at 7095.99. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.21 at 7761.11

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed up 0.61% at 33949.41. The S&P 500 up 1.10% at 4060.43 and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.76% at 11512.41, NYSE 0.61% closes at 15985.87.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – BUY AT 1.24245, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.24800, SL AT 1.23571

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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report – 15 February 2023​

JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SAYS HE HOPES NEW BOJ CHIEF WILL HEED GOVERNMENT GOAL OF HIGHER WAGES​

Asian stock market closes in green on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite is in green 0.28% at 3293.28. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is down 0.05% at 300.95. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is down 0.24% at 21113.76. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.64 at 27602.77. While the Topix index is up 0.78% at 1993.09, South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.53% at 2465.64. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.18% at 7430.90.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday he hoped the central bank’s new leadership will take into account the government’s goal of achieving higher wages and sustained economic growth, in guiding monetary policy.

Kishida also said it was premature to say whether the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) should revise a joint policy statement, which commits the BOJ to achieve its 2% inflation target at the earliest date possible.

“We’d like to achieve structural wage growth and sustainable economic growth. I hope the new BOJ leadership guide policy taking account our policy direction,” Kishida told parliament.

The government on Tuesday named academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor, a surprise choice that could heighten the chance of an end to its unpopular yield control policy.

Market Summary as per 14/02/2023:

European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded down 0.11% at 15380.56, CAC 40 futures up 0.07% at 7213.81. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.08 at 7953.85.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed down 0.46% at 34089.27. The S&P 500 down 0.03% at 4136.13 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.57% at 11960.14, NYSE 0.17% closes down at 16025.11.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.21328, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.20566, SL AT 1.21836

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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report - 17 February 2023​

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WITH HAWKISH FED REMARKS, THE DOLLAR JUMPS TO A SIX-WEEK HIGH​

Asian stock market closes in green on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite is in red 0.96% at 3249.03. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is up 1.41% at 301.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 0.84% at 20987.67. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.71 at 27696.44. While the Topix index is up 0.67% at 2001.09, South Korea’s Kospi is up 1.96% at 2475.48. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.79% at 7410.30.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

The U.S. dollar surged to a six-week high in early European trade Friday, after strong U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers pointed to more interest rate hikes.

At 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% higher at 104.345, on track for a third consecutive week of gains.

Data released Thursday pointed to a resilient U.S. economy, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined unexpectedly last week, while producer prices accelerated in January.

This was followed on from retail sales rebounding sharply in January after two straight monthly declines and consumer inflation coming in stronger than expected earlier in the week.

“The data provides ammunition for the Fed to remain in hawkish mode and for the market to continue to price two to three more 25bp Fed rate hikes by the summer,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Market Summary as per 16/02/2023:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.18% at 15533.64, and CAC 40 futures up 0.89% at 7366.16. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. is up 0.18 at 8012.53.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.26% at 33696.85. The S&P 500 was down 1.38% at 4090.41 and the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.78% at 11855.83, NYSE 0.89% closes at 15873.78.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.20090, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19608, SL AT 1.20262

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Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report - 24 February 2023​

GERMANY’S FOURTH-QUARTER GDP SHRANK BY 0.4%​

Asian stock market closes in red on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite is in red by 0.11% at 3287.48. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is in red 1.01% at 295.15. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is down 0.35% at 20351.35. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 1.34 at 27104.32. While the Topix index is down 1.11% at 1975.25, South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.89% at 2439.09. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.27% at 7304.90.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

The German economy contracted at the end of the year, as inflation and the energy crisis took their toll on household consumption and capital investment.

The German economy shrank by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, the statistics office said on Friday.

Preliminary data from the office had pointed to a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction adjusted for price and calendar effects. In the third quarter of 2022, GDP saw slight growth of 0.5% compared to the three months prior.

After relief measures such as the fuel discount and the 9-euro transport ticket ended, consumers spent less on consumption in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, the statistics office said. Household spending was down 1.0%.

Market Summary as per 23/02/2023:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.49% at 15475.69, and CAC 40 futures up 0.25% at 7317.43. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. is down 0.29 at 7907.72.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.33% at 33153.91. The S&P 500 up 0.53% at 4012.32 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.72% at 11590.40, NYSE is up 0.35% closing at 15584.92.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.20156, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19912, SL AT 1.20366

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

The market started the week quietly yesterday, as many participants had anticipated, with most items trading in well-known ranges. There was little excitement for the Asian open as all the main American indices concluded the day nearly flat. Most of the major currencies continued to trade in very narrow ranges against the dollar, and US government yields concluded the day somewhat higher.

Despite a very dull (and expected) start to the week, traders anticipate ending it in a little more jaded manner due to the onslaught of economic data and central bank releases they will face as the sessions go on. The big event of the day will be Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress, and because the markets have been leaning more hawkish in response to recent US data, every word the Fed Chair says will be heavily scrutinized. Any changes in the recent outlook and language could cause some strong moves across all markets, as benchmark US rates are currently near multiyear highs.

Looking ahead to today’s trade, the RBA starts off for the Asian session with its most recent cash rate announcement and statement. Another 25 bps are largely anticipated from them, but any change in Governor Phillip Lowe’s forward guidance may cause market volatility. Until we hear from the Fed Chair later in the day, it’s rather calm during the European session and into the North American time zone.

HOW DID THE US SESSION GO?​

Ivey PMI for Canada dropped to 51.6 from 60.1, below the predicted value of 55.9. $ Factory Orders m/m declined by 1.6%, less than the previous value of 1.7% but better than the expected -1.8% decrease. The data shows that both currencies’ economic performance has been inconsistent, with a modest negative skew.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE ASIAN SESSION?​

The RBA’s interest rate decision (anticipated to increase by 25 basis points) and its forecast for the rate hike path would take centre stage. The Australian dollar could fall below the five-day range, or about between 0.6700 and 0.6780, in response to a dovish rate statement.

THE DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)​

KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY​

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

Price is being driven lower by a descending resistance line approaching our first support, multiple-swing low support at 1.1923. It’s important to note that the Ichi Moku cloud is also exhibiting negative momentum, which may strengthen our belief that the price will continue to decline.

Our first resistance, which is a multiple swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, is at 1.2144.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 16 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

Credit Suisse loses 25% and crashes the market.

Last night, as the share price of Swiss multinational Credit Suisse plummeted by almost 25% in a single trading session, concerns about contagion in the banking sector came true. Though not to the extent that some investors may have anticipated earlier in the day, American stock indices suffered, with the Dow ending the day down 0.87%, the S&P down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq only managing to finish in the black. On hearing the news, Haven Gold and the USD rose, while the Euro and Swiss fell.

ECB Important Rate Decision

As the European Central Bank is ready to announce its most recent rate decision, the timing of yesterday’s market turbulence could not have been worse. At the start of yesterday’s session, we would have been confidently talking about a rate hike but chances of that dropped dramatically during the day, from 90% chance of a 50bp hike down to 20% by the close. It would be a shock to the market if we see 25bps or even no change, but these are once again unprecedented times for both traders and indeed central banks, so be prepared for more moves in the single currency in the days ahead.

Another Day of Market Chaos Upcoming?

Looking ahead to the rest of the trading day, anticipate once more that investors will be examining each new news on the banking industry. In terms of economic data releases, the Asian session already saw an unexpectedly positive outcome for Australian employment numbers. The regular weekly US employment claims numbers come out later in the day, and the critical ECB rate announcement with its accompanying statement and press conference comes right after.

What does it mean for the Asian Session?

The rebound of risky assets is likely to be constrained by lingering worries about the risks of contagion from the American financial industry. More banks, even those outside the US, might report problems if history is any indication. In this case, it is very likely that investors will seek “safe haven” in the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and gold.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The price of the pound presently could move between the first support level at 1.1927 and the first resistance level at 1.2139 on the GBP/USD chart.

An overlap support level at 1.1927 acts as the first support level and could offer the price significant support if it declines. Moreover, there is an overlap support level at 1.2010 that coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, serving as an intermediate support level.

The initial resistance level, however, which is at 1.2139, is an overlap resistance level. Price may move upward towards the second resistance level at 1.2208 if it were to break through this level.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 27 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

Continued Volatility on the Stock Markets​

As a result of the upheaval in the banking sector and central bank activity, the investor roller coaster persisted on Friday as global market indices remained volatile. At the end of another long week, the US market defied the trend by seeing all three major indices close higher: the Dow rose 0.41%, the S&P gained 0.56%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. There was a sea of red on European and Asian stock exchanges. Fed speakers who all gave the market assurances about the soundness of the banking system supported US markets, and the dollar’s recovery from the post-Fed decline was continued. Treasury’s remained in their current levels, and gold concluded the day marginally lower.

Dollar in Favour: Friday’s gains were 0.5% higher

The dollar suffered a little last week as currency markets focused on the likely end of the FOMC’s rapid tightening cycle after the Federal Reserves raised expectations by 25 basis points. The dollar gained much of its lost territory versus the majors back during the last few trading days of the week, though. As central banks seek confidence in the wake of recent banking sector concerns, traders are currently searching for the next catalyst for currency changes. In terms of interest rate differentials, this appears to be a difficult call in the short term. Greater concerns have mainly overshadowed US statistics for the past few weeks, but at the end of last week we had two stronger prints: the weekly unemployment claims and the PMI numbers. If these readings continue to indicate to higher inflation in the US, anticipate the currency to increase.

This week’s market will be dominated by investor worries.

Apart from the German IFO Business Climate statistics today, there isn’t much scheduled to spook the scoreboard this coming week in terms of economic data releases. Investors will be able to assess the recent weeks’ extraordinary volatility and perhaps begin to anticipate the emergence of a clearer picture as a result. There are, of course, no assurances in this, and there is still a high likelihood of abrupt, aggressive changes, so as we move into what we hope will be slightly more favorable market conditions, traders should anticipate being heavily focused on the newswires.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The general momentum of the GBP/USD chart is currently neutral, indicating that the price may move back and forth between the first resistance and first support levels.

The first support level is located at 1.1630 and is an overlap support that lines up with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This level can serve as a significant region of buying interest. In addition, a pullback support level at 1.1826 is an intermediate support level that might be used if the price were to decline from the current level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level, which is a swing-high resistance, is located at 1.2440. Price could experience selling pressure at this level if it were to rise from its current level. 1.2671 is the second resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 12 April 2023​

FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST​

MARKET UPDATE:​

• As investors awaited critical inflation data and the unofficial start of the first-quarter reporting season, Wall Street equities lost momentum late in the session and ended the day with a mixed performance.
• 
  
• It’s the quiet before the storm, said Detrick. “Traders are adopting a wait-and-see strategy to see how the inflation data comes in, given the importance of tomorrow’s inflation data, the impending release of the Fed minutes, and the impending earnings season.”
• 
  
• Analysts predict that the headline and core CPI will decline to 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, monthly. The core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is anticipated to gather steam, climbing to 5.6% from 5.5%, even though consensus projections call for a considerable decline in the headline number – to 5.2% from 6.0%.
• 
  
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 1.5% to $90.18 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.3% to $94.12 per barrel. Concerns about supply disruptions in important producing nations and growing demand as the world economy keeps improving were the main factors driving the increase in oil prices.
• 
  
• Spot gold rose barely 0.1% to $1,776.25 an ounce, remaining virtually unchanged as investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude in the face of conflicting market sentiment.
• 
  
• The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar’s strength against a basket of other currencies, fell 0.1% to 96.62, showing the dollar’s marginally declining value relative to other important currencies.

​

Technical Outlook​

GBPUSD​

The price of the GBP/USD currency pair has broken below an ascending support line, which may be a sign that a negative move is possible. The chart of the pair is currently displaying bearish momentum.

The first support level, which is located at 1.2349, is an overlap support level, meaning that it has previously served as support and may do so again in the future.

At 1.2274, the second support level—also an overlap support level—is located. At this level, the price might also find support if it were to keep dropping.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the first resistance level, which is an overlap resistance level, are both located at 1.2439. Price might perhaps encounter resistance at this level and start to decline in the direction of the support levels if it were to increase.

The second resistance level is located at 1.2526 and is a multi-swing high resistance level, meaning it has previously served as resistance and might do so again in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 30 May 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

MARKETS BOOSTED BY DEAL OPTIMISM FOR DEBT​

Yesterday’s bullish day for the world’s markets was fuelled by hope for a Washington, DC, debt ceiling agreement. Numerous important financial markets were closed due to bank holidays, but futures markets managed to edge up. The S&P futures were up 0.3%, and the Nasdaq futures moved up by 0.4%. These advances came on top of big gains on Friday when Wall Street was last open. As markets begin to further price in another rate hike from the Fed, Treasury futures have likewise adopted a more aggressive tone. The dollar experienced a rather stagnant session as FX traders took advantage of the holidays to relax, but things might pick up today.

AFTER A LONG WEEKEND, MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE.​

Today’s opening of the financial markets follows a long weekend for several major cities. Although a significant portion of the European and North American markets were closed yesterday, the Asian market was open, and investors anticipate that today’s markets will be more liquid and volatile than usual. The agreement on the debt ceiling was undoubtedly the main news over the weekend coming out of the US, and further reports yesterday have been encouraging, so anticipate that attitude to lead as markets reopen. In the Asian and European sessions, there aren’t many data releases today, but the CB Consumer Confidence data will start the tier 1 figures in the New York session, with the market anticipating a 99.1 print.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

A bearish symmetrical triangle pattern on the GBP/USD chart indicates a bearish momentum now.

A considerable support area, known as overlap support, is provided by the first support level at 1.2279.

A second support level at 1.2192 similarly overlaps support, and it is also present. This level’s usefulness as a possible support region is further supported by prior occurrences of price movement bouncing off it.

On the resistance side, an overlap resistance is represented by the first resistance level at 1.2377. The bearish trend may temporarily stall or retrace because this level acts as a temporary barrier to price increases.

A second resistance level at 1.2470 is also present and is known as an overlap resistance. It has been demonstrated in the past that this level is significant as a price level when selling pressure has developed.

EURUSD​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 06 June 2023​

MARKETS CONSOLIDATE BEFORE CENTRAL BANKS​

After a good week-ending, global markets had a day of consolidation yesterday, albeit at elevated levels. As investors considered next week’s Fed announcement, the major US indices experienced a mixed day, with the Dow losing 0.59%, the S&P declining 0.2%, and the Nasdaq closing just over flat. The ISM Service PMI came out weaker than expected at 50.3 versus the predicted 52.6, which caused the dollar to take a slight dip following the first significant data release of the week from the US. Oil dropped back after its OPEC-inspired spike, and WTI returned to trading around the $72/barrel level. Gold bounced off the $1,940 mark once more.

CENTRAL BANKS AND UPCOMING DATA​

As there were few macroeconomic data releases on the calendar yesterday, the financial markets had a little break. Today, however, there are a few significant events coming up. The Australian market, where the RBA will publish its most recent rate decision, will be the center of attention throughout the Asian session. Investors are divided over their course of action. Major announcements are absent from the European session, but the US session is expected to shift attention to Canada when the Ivey PMI statistics are released as a preview of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart indicates an upward trend.

1.2377 is the initial support level, which is also known as overlap support. Price has already bounced off overlap support, showing that it is an important level where buyers may enter the market.

1.2306 is a swing low support and serves as the second level of support. During the most recent downward price movement, this price level served as support; it may do so once more.

1.2467 is the initial resistance level. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance level both indicate this level.

1.2536 is the second resistance level. As an overlap resistance level that is also at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, this level is further strengthened. Resistance and a significant Fibonacci level together frequently signal a firm price ceiling.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 June 2023​

MARKETS TAKE A DIVERSION BEFORE THE DATA.​

The bulk of the main stock indices had reasonably calm days yesterday, which gave the global financial markets a brief respite. In the US, the major indices all closed slightly higher on the day, with the Dow up 0.03%, the S&P up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq up 0.36%. The RBA’s unexpected rate increase for the second time in a row and news from the US that the SEC is still targeting cryptocurrency companies, this time with Coinbase facing charges, was the day’s major highlights. With the exception of the Australian dollar following the RBA decision, the dollar rose against the majority of the major currencies on the day.

YET ANOTHER CENTRAL BANK, ANOTHER DAY​

Yesterday was a pretty calm day for the markets, and as the trading day goes on, investors will be turning to the event calendar for some new vigor. With the announcement of the most recent GDP figures this morning, the Asian market will once more turn its attention to Australia first. A 0.3% increase in quarter-over-quarter statistics is anticipated. Investors will be watching today’s release of Chinese trade data in hopes of some encouraging results. Again, there aren’t many data releases during the European session, but the Bank of Canada’s most recent rate announcement will shift attention back to Canada at the start of the New York session.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIAN SESSION?​

Australia’s GDP growth for the quarter was 0.2% as opposed to the predicted 0.3% and the prior 0.6%, which is less than anticipated. This slower economic expansion could harm the AUD. Chinese trade balance data are mixed, with a lower USD-denominated trade balance of 65.8 billion dollars (compared to a forecast of 95.2 billion dollars and previous 90.2 billion dollars) and a higher CNY-denominated trade balance of 452 billion dollars (compared to a projection of 676 billion dollars and previous 618 billion dollars), which may indicate AUD volatility.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The price is currently above a significant ascending trend line on the GBP/USD chart, indicating the possibility of additional upward movement.

This momentum suggests that the price may continue to rise in the direction of the first resistance level at 1.2467. The 50% Fibonacci retracement serves as a support for this level, which is designated as an overlap resistance level.

While the second support level at 1.2305 is a swing low support, the first support level at 1.2376 is known as an overlap support.

Furthermore, the second resistance level at 1.2536 is a high resistance with several swings.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 13 June 2023​

STOCK MARKETS ARE UP, WITH THE NASDAQ UP 1.5%.​

On hopes that the Fed will conclude its tightening cycle this week, US stock markets rose sharply once more yesterday. All the main US indices had good days, with the Dow rising 0.53%, the S&P rising 0.93%, and the Nasdaq once more setting the pace, closing 1.53% higher thanks to Apple Inc. reaching a record high. Both the S&P and Nasdaq reached highs not seen since April 2022. In contrast, other markets were far more muted, with Treasuries and FX trading in well-known ranges ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and tomorrow’s inflation data. Another notable example was the decline in the price of oil, with WTI falling more than 4% after a Goldman report was released with a much lower forecast for oil prices over the coming few months as supply appears to be outpacing demand despite production restrictions.

FED AND DATA IN FOCUS​

Before important inflation data is released in the US tonight, investors anticipate rather quiet trading conditions today. The CPI statistic is anticipated to reflect a decreasing rise in inflation, with the monthly increase predicted to be 0.2% rather than 0.4%, down from 4.9% y/y in April to 4.1% in May. Given the sharp swing in US equity markets overnight, traders are understandably apprehensive that a topside surprise in these statistics tonight might have a significant impact on Fed policy. As of right now, the market is pricing in a 77% likelihood that the FOMC won’t change interest rates on Wednesday, but if tonight’s report reveals that US inflation is still very much alive and well, then expect those odds to drop considerably.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIA SESSION?​

The 16.9% decline in visitor arrivals to New Zealand, which exceeded the prior 1.0% decline, may have weakened the NZD because of the decline in foreign inflow.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, has conflicting possibilities; a surprising 0.2% increase in Westpac Consumer Sentiment may boost the AUD, but a dismal -4 in NAB Business Confidence may lower its value.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

A cautious upward turn in price movement is indicated by the weak positive momentum and low confidence now visible on the GBP/USD chart.

A bullish extension towards the first resistance level at 1.2575 is possible. This resistance level is important since it denotes a resistance overlap zone.

On the downside, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the initial support level at 1.2498. It provides potential price support and is at a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Another region of support is the second support level at 1.2448, which also serves as a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap support level.

TRADE SUGGESTION: BUY AT 1.25616, TP AT 1.26252, SL AT 1.25108​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 14 June 2023​

AFTER WEAKER CPI, MARKETS RISE – S&P UP 0.7%.​

The market’s anticipated release of the week’s major economic data last night indicated that the Fed will likely pause today. Equity markets once again reacted strongly when the US CPI data came in slightly below expectations for both the monthly and yearly comparative readings. The Dow lagged once more, rising only 0.43% on the day, while the S&P and Nasdaq both reached new yearly highs, rising 0.69% and 0.83%, respectively. Even so, there were notable outliers, with the USDJPY rising by almost 1% on the day and US treasury rates returning to a somewhat better bid at the day’s close as the fixed income market became more cautious ahead of the Fed statement later today.

THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FED​

In the upcoming trading sessions, the Fed won’t be the only topic of discussion, but let’s be honest, it will be! There aren’t many events scheduled for the Asian markets today, so they will likely continue the day’s strong momentum from the US. However, don’t be shocked if you see some profit-taking in all sessions before the major risk event. On the European Open, attention will once more be on the UK. After stronger job numbers yesterday, there were some significant changes, and today, the most recent GDP data will be announced; an m/m reading of +0.2% is anticipated. Before the FOMC announcement, we still must wait for the latest PPI data from the US session, which is expected to show a 0.2% gain for the Core PPI number and a 0.1% decrease for the PPI.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIA SESSION?​

Recent figures on the New Zealand economy point to an improved scenario. The current account deficit decreased from -10.07 billion NZD to -5.22 billion NZD, outperforming the predicted -6.95 billion NZD performance and perhaps strengthening the NZD. The Food Price Index increased by 0.3%, which is less than the previous 0.5% increase and suggests that inflationary pressure is still present. This could lead to central bank initiatives that could affect the NZD. As a result, these numbers show that the NZD’s future is uncertain.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart at the moment suggests that the market is currently moving upward.

The price could move upward towards the first resistance level at 1.2676 after a bullish bounce off the first support level at 1.2588.

As overlap supports, the first and second support levels at 1.2588 and 1.2543, respectively, are noted for their importance in generating prospective buyer interest.

On the upside, the overlap resistance at the initial resistance level of 1.2676 may serve as a barrier to price movements in the direction of upward.

A probable area of resistance is further supported by the fact that an intermediate resistance level at 1.2651 exhibits Fibonacci confluence with a -27% Fibonacci Expansion and the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection.

TRADE SUGGESTION: BUY AT 1.26107, TP AT 1.26532, SL AT 1.25831​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 16 June 2023​

CENTRAL BANKS DRIVE MARKET SURGE – DOW CLIMBS 1.25%.​

INTRODUCTION​

In an eventful trading day, global indices are set to soar, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. The European Central Bank’s anticipated rate hike has propelled the single currency to levels unseen in over a month, making it the focal point of a bustling day in the financial calendar. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause, stock enthusiasts flocked to the US markets during its first full session, with the Dow leading the way, surging by 1.26%. The S&P and Nasdaq closely followed suit, ending the day up 1.22% and 1.15%, respectively. With mounting positivity, the dollar experienced a notable dip of nearly 0.8%, while gold embarked on a robust rally after initially hitting multi-month lows.

BANK OF JAPAN AND UPCOMING DATA​

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to reveal its latest rate update, accompanied by the customary statement and press conference, further intensifying an already action-packed week on the economic front. Given the considerable volatility witnessed this week, traders are bracing themselves for more sharp movements in the yen surrounding this event. The European session is expected to be relatively calm, but as the US session commences, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s announcements are bound to generate additional market activity.

US SESSION HIGHLIGHTS​

• U.S. Core Retail Sales experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, in contrast to the previous 0.4%.
• The Empire State Manufacturing Index, soaring from -31.8 to 6.6, surpassed projections and indicated a robust resurgence in manufacturing.
• US retail sales showed a modest gain of 0.3%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% decline.
• The number of unemployment claims in the US remained steady at 262K, suggesting a stable job market, albeit without rapid improvement.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASIAN SESSION​

As the Bank of Japan prepares to announce its monetary policy decisions, the USD/JPY pair hovers just above the 140.00 mark. A hawkish outcome would likely push the pair down to 139.30 before reaching 139.00. Conversely, a climb to 141.00, followed by a retest of the recent intra-day highs around 141.50, is conceivable for the Dollar Yen.

THE JAPANESE YEN (JPY)​

KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY​

• Monetary Policy Statement
• BOJ Policy Rate
• BOJ Press Conference

GBPUSD: BEARISH MOMENTUM SUGGESTS A NEGATIVE MARKET TREND​

INTRODUCTION​

In the world of forex trading, the GBP/USD chart has recently been showing strong bearish momentum, indicating a market trend moving in the negative direction. Traders and investors need to pay close attention to the current market conditions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS​

1. Resistance Level 1: 1.2685

• A potential bearish reaction may occur at this level, possibly leading to a subsequent slide toward the first support level.

1. Support Level 1: 1.26952

• This level holds significance as pullback support, attracting buyers and offering market stabilization.

1. Resistance Level 2: 1.28467

• The presence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection further emphasizes this level’s relevance as a potential resistance region.

TRADE SUGGESTION​

For traders considering a position in GBP/USD, a sell trade can be considered with the following parameters:

• Entry Point: 1.27865
• Take Profit: 1.27358
• Stop Loss: 1.28142

By following this trade suggestion, traders can potentially capitalize on the current bearish momentum in the market.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 June 2023​

Central Bank Decisions And Testimony Drive Market Volatility​

Introduction​

In the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, the US markets experienced a wave of uncertainty. The reaction to Powell’s comments was mixed, with stock markets bearing the brunt of his aggressive stance, while currency markets perceived him as insufficiently hawkish, resulting in a decline in the US dollar. This article examines the repercussions of Powell’s testimony and explores the expected market volatility in the coming days.

Markets React To Powell’s Testimony​

Nasdaq Bears The Brunt Of Powell’s Comments​

Powell’s testimony left a significant impact on the stock markets, with all major US indices closing in the red for the third consecutive day. Among them, the Nasdaq suffered the most, experiencing a daily decline of 1.21%. The decline was further exacerbated by a 5.5% drop in Tesla’s stock price. Meanwhile, the S&P and the Dow also experienced losses, with their values decreasing by 0.3% on the day.

Currency Markets React Differently​

Contrasting with the stock markets’ response, currency markets had a different take on Powell’s testimony. The Euro surged to new monthly highs, marking a 0.63% increase for the day. In contrast, the US dollar index plummeted by 0.43%. This discrepancy highlights the divergent reactions from investors and emphasizes the complex dynamics of the financial markets.

Anticipating Further Volatility​

Factors Contributing To Market Volatility​

The financial markets are bracing for another tumultuous day as investors face crucial central bank decisions, the release of tier 1 data, and additional testimony from Powell. The Asian market started off weakly following a disappointing day on Wall Street. With the absence of significant events on the calendar, the outlook for the Asian market remains pessimistic. However, once the European period begins, the situation may change, driven by significant rate calls from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. The US session is also expected to witness heightened volatility, as the weekly unemployment report and Powell’s hearing before the Senate Banking Committee come into play.

GBPUSD: Strong Movement and Key Levels​

Introduction​

In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD instrument is currently displaying a robust overall movement, indicating significant price action. Traders are observing the possibility of a brief decline followed by a bounce toward the first resistance level. The support and resistance levels play a crucial role in determining the potential trading opportunities for market participants.

Analyzing Support Levels​

First Support Level: Overlap Support And Fibonacci Retracements​

The initial support level at 1.2681 holds great importance due to its combination of overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement. This confluence of technical indicators adds to the level’s significance and trustworthiness. Additionally, the second support level at 1.2536 provides strong overlap support, reinforcing its relevance in the market.

Evaluating Resistance Levels​

First Resistance Level: Swing High Resistance​

On the upside, the first resistance level at 1.2823 acts as a significant barrier for the price. Instead of breaking past this level, it is more likely for the price to experience rejection near it. Traders should closely monitor the price action around this resistance level to identify potential trading opportunities.

Trade Suggestion For GBPUSD​

Considering the technical analysis, a trade suggestion for GBP/USD is as follows:

• SELL at 1.2751
• Take Profit (TP) at 1.2786
• Stop Loss (SL) at 1.2730

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 23 June 2023​

US Markets Display Mixed Sentiment Amid Debt Ceiling Crisis.​

Introduction​

In anticipation of new information regarding the debt ceiling crisis, the US markets experienced a mixed day yesterday. The Nasdaq saw a 0.5% increase, the S&P rose by 0.02%, and the Dow closed with a 0.42% gain. Despite the market’s closure, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy of the Republicans expressed confidence in ongoing negotiations, stating they are “on the right path.” However, he offered a few specific details to appease investors. Meanwhile, as Fed policymakers leaned towards a more hawkish stance, the dollar remained near recent highs, and short-term government rates maintained their strong position.

The First Data Wave Hits The Markets​

The US markets failed to generate much excitement among traders as they sent conflicting signals, adding to the anticipation of a potentially hectic trading week. Today, we can expect to be inundated with several PMI statistics for both manufacturing and services, which will shape market sentiment. The European market will receive data from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone during the first few hours of trading. After the opening of trade in New York, the US Flash PMI numbers will be released. However, as the day progresses, the focus is likely to shift toward the US debt discussions, significantly impacting public opinion.

INSIGHTS FROM THE ASIAN SESSION​

During the Asian session, Australia’s Manufacturing PMI matched expectations at 48.0. However, the Services PMI missed forecasts, declining from 53.7 to 51.8 compared to the previous reading of 53.7. The JPY Manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, surpassing expectations. Additionally, the Core CPI y/y for the Bank of Japan rose to 3.0%, exceeding both the expected value of 2.8% and the previous recording of 2.9%. These findings indicate the weakness of the Australian dollar and the strength of the Japanese yen.

Implications For The European & US Sessions​

If the PMIs from Europe, the UK, and the US turn out to be significantly worse than anticipated, the Euro and the Cable may trade within a range prior to the release of corresponding manufacturing and services data. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations is likely to prevent any decline in the EUR or GBP caused by the data.

GBPUSD: Possibility of Additional Higher Movement​

Introduction​

In the realm of currency trading, the GBP/USD chart is currently displaying an intriguing pattern. The price of this currency pair is positioned above a significant ascending trend line as well as the bullish Ichi Moku cloud. Such a configuration indicates the potential for additional upward movement, catching the attention of traders.

Factors Pointing Towards A Bullish Bounce​

Several factors contribute to the likelihood of a bullish bounce off the initial support level at 1.2698. Firstly, there is a Fibonacci confluence, which denotes the convergence of various Fibonacci levels. This confluence is further supported by overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Collectively, these elements present a strong case for a bullish scenario.

Journey Towards The First Barrier​

Traders anticipate a possible surge in price towards the first barrier at 1.2726. This particular level holds significance as it is characterized by a multi-swing high resistance. When combined with the aforementioned circumstances, the presence of this barrier strengthens the overall outlook for a bullish trend.

Trade Suggestion​

Based on the analysis and observations made, a prudent trade suggestion for traders would be to consider buying at 1.2703. Establishing a take-profit level at 1.2725 and setting a stop-loss order at 1.2689 would be advisable in order to manage potential risks effectively.

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EURUSD: Potential for Upward Growth​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 July 2023​

Wall Street Faces Losses Amid Labor Market Strength and Rate-Hike Concerns.​

Introduction​

In a recent turn of events, Wall Street has witnessed a significant decline as concerns about a potential interest rate hike intensified. The strong performance of the labor market has led to an increase in bond yields, fueling these apprehensions. This article delves into the details of the market downturn and sheds light on the implications of the robust labor market for the economy.

Wall Street’s Sharp Decline​

Labor Market Strength Amplifies Worries​

The major indexes of Wall Street experienced a widespread sell-off on Thursday. This decline can be attributed to data that unveiled a robust labor market, surpassing expectations. The surge in private payrolls during June indicated a stable job market amid looming recession concerns. However, this positive report also amplified fears of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Historical Declines In The S&P 500 And Dow​

The repercussions of this data were evident as the S&P 500 registered its largest daily percentage decline since May 23. Similarly, the Dow faced its most substantial daily decline since May 2. These downward trends indicate the market’s response to the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Implications Of Labor Market Strength​

Stability Amid Recession Threats​

Despite concerns about a potential recession, the labor market has remained remarkably stable. The unexpectedly high growth in private payrolls during June has provided reassurance. It is worth noting that while there were fewer job postings in May, they were still at a relatively high level. These observations suggest that the job market continues to hold its ground amidst the prevailing economic uncertainties.

The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma​

At its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates. However, there is an expectation that the interest rates will be revised during their July meeting. The case for a rate hike was presented by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. The market’s reaction to this prospect was reflected in the increased bond yields and the subsequent sell-off.

GBPUSD: Bullish Momentum Remains Strong​

Introduction​

In the current market scenario, the GBP/USD chart demonstrates a bullish momentum, with the price positioned above a significant ascending trend line. Additionally, the ascending trend line acts as a strong support level, further confirming the positive outlook.

Ascending Trend Line Provides Support​

Support Level 1: 1.2682​

The first support level at 1.2682 serves as pullback support, indicating a potential recovery in the near term. Traders and investors should closely monitor this level as it may offer a favorable buying opportunity.

Support Level 2: 1.2605​

Located at 1.2605, the second support level coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. This convergence of support levels enhances its significance and reinforces its role as a strong support zone.

Resistance Levels Indicate Potential Barriers​

Resistance Level 1: 1.2750​

The first resistance level at 1.2750 is challenged by a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement on the upside. This level presents a hurdle for the price to overcome and may slow down the bullish momentum temporarily.

Resistance Level 2: 1.2847​

Positioned at 1.2847, the second resistance level is characterized by high resistance with multiple swings. It represents a formidable barrier to the price and should be closely monitored by market participants.

Trade Suggestion​

For traders considering potential trades in the GBP/USD market, a compelling suggestion is to initiate a buy position at 1.2745, with a take profit (TP) level set at 1.2819. To manage risk, a stop loss (SL) order can be placed at 1.2690.

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