Quelle surprise, UK still in recession

[Trader333]

do not see the scores of unemployed people

I am not sure where you live but I have never known so many skilled people out of work and unable to find anything other than cleaning and Burger bar work and from almost all parts of the UK. I have a friend who works in my local Job Centre where they have 11 applicants for every position on their books. I lived through the 80s recession as Chairman of a Union and this one is making it look like a walk in the park by comparison. The figures are completely fabricated as we know that there are over 1 million of those aged 18 to 24 out of work but in many cases are re-classed and so are not included.


Paul

 

[Black Swan]

i'm still very bearish on the whole recovery to be honest. i don't think we have seen anythling like the impact we should from unemployment and these current good numbers from corporates is not a result of better sales, more like cost cutting measures-eventually this has to feed through. all this liquidity ahs to come out sometime and it feels like the economy is on life support.

Each recession is v. different, there is no text book format. however, this one feels 'weird'...I'm a laissez faire Austrian scholar, this mixture of paradoxical state intervention/free market when it suits our polite version of the politburo, is deeply disturbing..

You mention boarded up shops not being as noticeable, don't forget the pre-packaged rescues, vat reductions and the invitation to defer vat returns (btw, have you ever known a time when, as opposed to getting a prison sentence, you were invited to stiff the vat man?)..I'd suggest a lot of small retailers are going to look upon this last quarter as their last.

 

[gooseman]

recession time and the trade unions are starting to gain traction again. just what we need.

 

[gamma]

...and?

can't we just find this stuff out ourselves on the newswires rather than clutter up the boards...

Maybe the sheiks have access to all types of up to the minute news and have analysts working for them.
Us lesser mortals like to hear other views and opinions.

 

[Black Swan]

I am not sure where you live but I have never known so many skilled people out of work and unable to find anything other than cleaning and Burger bar work and from almost all parts of the UK. I have a friend who works in my local Job Centre where they have 11 applicants for every position on their books. I lived through the 80s recession as Chairman of a Union and this one is making it look like a walk in the park by comparison. The figures are completely fabricated as we know that there are over 1 million of those aged 18 to 24 out of work but in many cases are re-classed and so are not included.


Paul

Good points Paul, we've lost a million private sector jobs inside 14 months, I believe that's a record loss. However, 300K public sector jobs have been created in the same time. Cameron is suggesting a cull on the public sector of circa 700K in order to attempt to balance the books asap, and most estimates suggest the private sector will lose another million jobs..not good..

Also, a point often missed in reports/surveys is the fact that with so much cash washing around the economy during the past five years, particularly in the 'professional'/exectutive classes, job losses in that sector are not showing...yet.
Having a small cash pile and or shares prevents lots of the recent unemployed getting benefits, thay have to deplete their cash and asset value to the threshold in order to comply. Estimates suggest a lot of families have just enough savings to last a year...

 

[gooseman]

so then why are stocks rallying still given that most people i know and speak to (and opinions thus far on here) are bearish on the economy. the pound and the long end of the curve seem to be the only things indicating trouble.

 

[Trader333]

so then why are stocks rallying still given that most people i know and speak to (and opinions thus far on here) are bearish on the economy. the pound and the long end of the curve seem to be the only things indicating trouble.

Markets rarely follow logic in my view.


Paul

 

[gamma]

And what about this
Recession? What recession? More than a thousand shoppers queue around the block for opening of new John Lewis store | Mail Online

 

[gooseman]

this is more of a rhetorical question than anything. i am still bearish stocks but have given up after being stopped out so many bloody times 🙂

 

[theSheik]

with FTSE 100 trading either well in, or trading near to, overbought territory over the last three months and with over half FTSE 350 close to 12 month highs - you're lookout for a selloff "soon" gooseman

your time will come - just need those stops wider

 

[Black Swan]

so then why are stocks rallying still given that most people i know and speak to (and opinions thus far on here) are bearish on the economy. the pound and the long end of the curve seem to be the only things indicating trouble.

Remember those dark days when ordinary folk were scared stiff of their banks being the next Northern Rock/Ice Save? Those same folk have piled into the less risky world of equities "'cos the banks only pay 1% interest"...😆 There is data I've read on the 'pile in' by retail investors into equities over the past six months, it's frightenting TBH. Totally led by the nose of specialist arms of banks, pension fund, the hedgies etc and whipped into a frenzy by the vested interest mainstream media.

Piling into/ramping, for example, mining and retail stocks thereby creating a bubble works for the pros and if/when they dump it'll be the retail punter who will lose his shirt. Remember these are the same folk who believe property is always a one way bet, no research, no thought, just herd following to the cliff edge.

Railtrack playing coy on 13,000 job losses, Land Registry culling 1,500 jobs, despite the apparent rise in property transactions, - tells you what they know is/or isn't in the pipeline.

 

[gooseman]

with FTSE 100 trading either well in, or trading near to, overbought territory over the last three months and with over half FTSE 350 close to 12 month highs - you're lookout for a selloff "soon" gooseman

your time will come - just need those stops wider

whole heap of averaging 😉

 

[N Rothschild]

omg what happn ed to the green shoots im so shocked??

 

[N Rothschild]

Smoke And Mirrors Everywhere | zero hedge

 

[Dio]

Thaks for starting this thread, Black Swan. This has been called the 'worst' recession in terms of length of time it has lasted... although as others have pointed out it does not feel or look as bad as the previous recessions. It has been said that the economic recovery will be protracted because of the the QE and I fear the effects on the unknown unregistered middle classes will become more apparent when they spend all their reserves. (unofficially unemplyment is much worse) On the other hand, are we to believe the figures from France and Germany, perhaps this QE has helped their economy (although I wonder if they share exactly the same root cause of the recession as UK and USA), however the generational debt created by QE is likely to lower standard of living for some time.😕

 

[N Rothschild]

where is mr green shoots atilla now

 

[gooseman]

Thaks for starting this thread, Black Swan. This has been called the 'worst' recession in terms of length of time it has lasted... although as others have pointed out it does not feel or look as bad as the previous recessions. It has been said that the economic recovery will be protracted because of the the QE and I fear the effects on the unknown unregistered middle classes will become more apparent when they spend all their reserves. (unofficially unemplyment is much worse) On the other hand, are we to believe the figures from France and Germany, perhaps this QE has helped their economy (although I wonder if they share exactly the same root cause of the recession as UK and USA), however the generational debt created by QE is likely to lower standard of living for some time.😕

the european asset purchase programme is nothing like the US and UK (i.e. buying large amounts of govt paper) so i don't think the economies are comparable on that front.

 

[Martinghoul]

Thaks for starting this thread, Black Swan. This has been called the 'worst' recession in terms of length of time it has lasted... although as others have pointed out it does not feel or look as bad as the previous recessions. It has been said that the economic recovery will be protracted because of the the QE and I fear the effects on the unknown unregistered middle classes will become more apparent when they spend all their reserves. (unofficially unemplyment is much worse) On the other hand, are we to believe the figures from France and Germany, perhaps this QE has helped their economy (although I wonder if they share exactly the same root cause of the recession as UK and USA), however the generational debt created by QE is likely to lower standard of living for some time.😕

Whoooo, you're all confused, that's for sure... France and Germany have nothing to do with BoE QE program. Moreover, how do you figure that QE actually creates debt?

 

[chump]

so then why are stocks rallying still given that most people i know and speak to (and opinions thus far on here) are bearish on the economy. the pound and the long end of the curve seem to be the only things indicating trouble.

the stock market is not the uk economy.simple as that. Phase 1 this year ..vacuum..sellers all flushed out so where can price go anyway ,but up.Phase 2 this year idiots trying to go short far too early mainly based upon their fundamental economic beliefs...phase 3 this year now that the idiots have about given up they're getting ever more likely to be right ..the fundamentals absolutely suck...uk consumer hasn't got a pot to psii in to lead us out of this ..only way home is very weak £ driving exports and at least thank god we do have that option...now all we need is Merv The Mouth to keep his mouth shut ..pump up that old QE song ..flush that £ down the toilet and away we go.
LOL..I did buy gilts again 😉 ..come on Merv if GS in the US can get the inside track then do me the same favour.

 

[zambuck]

I really don't know why the current recession is referred to as the worst in history.
I do not see half the hight street boarded up as it was in the 90's recession, do not see the scores of unemployed people and countless auctions where reposessed propertiesw were being sold as low as 5000 pounds and this was in the south.
And what I read about the 30's recession it would appear we are nowhere near as bad as they had it then.

....The intellectual expertise to have ability to decipher as to what is happening now, and how to report it, is relatively lower this time than it was last time...!

...So when in doubt, print the worst...!