Charticist
Junior member
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Took a trade, see 10 in chart.
I. Why take the trade? There was a defeat of bulls at the round number level 4, but only after they had gained some ground. There were 3 more rejections at the round number level, 6,7,8. Lower highs at 4,6,7,8,9. I’ll call that a cup and handle at 8,9. Then a clear trend down along with the 20ema developed. After 5 no strong support appears until sideways action in ellipse 3 and 1.3100 round number level, but these are outside target.
II. Why not take the trade? Level 5, the bottom of bull flag, could be support, but this support disappears after the break of the level(of course this is clearer in retrospect). Support at 1 and 2 along with sideways action at that level preceding it, but these levels are mostly washed out by price action through these levels from 3 to 4. US import number coming up but this is a minor number. [ In retrospect I see that it is a medium impact number but also in retrospect 15 min should be at least enough time to lower stop (Foxmajster’s question about news yesterday has me thinking about this, perhaps if you’re in a trade preceding news use more aggressive stops, I tend to use aggressive stops so perhaps not an issue with me).]
At this time, after 9 in the chart, I am looking for an entry into the market and trade the second break. I was looking for a double doji but did not get one, but second breaks are just as good if not better since double doji’s more often than second breaks turn into blocks (at this time this last statement is just opinion, in other words I have no statistics to back this up). Anyway I took the trade and it hit my 10 pip target. Reaching the target may have been assisted by the import number but by that time a break even stop, just above technical levels, was in.
Note that as Mike suggests I asked the second question as well.
Chart
I. Why take the trade? There was a defeat of bulls at the round number level 4, but only after they had gained some ground. There were 3 more rejections at the round number level, 6,7,8. Lower highs at 4,6,7,8,9. I’ll call that a cup and handle at 8,9. Then a clear trend down along with the 20ema developed. After 5 no strong support appears until sideways action in ellipse 3 and 1.3100 round number level, but these are outside target.
II. Why not take the trade? Level 5, the bottom of bull flag, could be support, but this support disappears after the break of the level(of course this is clearer in retrospect). Support at 1 and 2 along with sideways action at that level preceding it, but these levels are mostly washed out by price action through these levels from 3 to 4. US import number coming up but this is a minor number. [ In retrospect I see that it is a medium impact number but also in retrospect 15 min should be at least enough time to lower stop (Foxmajster’s question about news yesterday has me thinking about this, perhaps if you’re in a trade preceding news use more aggressive stops, I tend to use aggressive stops so perhaps not an issue with me).]
At this time, after 9 in the chart, I am looking for an entry into the market and trade the second break. I was looking for a double doji but did not get one, but second breaks are just as good if not better since double doji’s more often than second breaks turn into blocks (at this time this last statement is just opinion, in other words I have no statistics to back this up). Anyway I took the trade and it hit my 10 pip target. Reaching the target may have been assisted by the import number but by that time a break even stop, just above technical levels, was in.
Note that as Mike suggests I asked the second question as well.
Chart
