Best Thread Potential setups

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Not sure if this will work.....
Nope!
I'll try and fathom it. You can export the charts but it seems to do it in an odd format other than .gif

Try again...
 

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Gold Hourly

There is a pin that has formed on gold on the hourlies.

What are peoples thoughts on this? Just am not sure as it's formed on the first bar of the day between 7 and 8.

It's bouncing off 775 which has been support in Nov 07, Dec 07 and Mid Aug 08. Lines up with 38 fib from may 04 lows to Mar 08 highs.

Be interested in peoples opinion.

Cheers,

Glen
 
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Oil reversal?

Does this count as a head and shoulders reversal pattern?
 

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simoncs said:
Does this count as a head and shoulders reversal pattern?
Click to expand...

That latest bar is a pin now...I am looking a lot more closely at Crude recently. Two months ago I was trying to pick a top, now I'm trying to pick a bottom. It's a market with a lot of potential...to lose your shirt if you get it wrong lol

Personally, I would stay out before inventories. I am not sure whether we are anywhere near a bottom but I do know that I am going to be a buyer at around $98 depending, of course, on PA.
 
trader_dante said:
That latest bar is a pin now...I am looking a lot more closely at Crude recently. Two months ago I was trying to pick a top, now I'm trying to pick a bottom. It's a market with a lot of potential...to lose your shirt if you get it wrong lol

Personally, I would stay out before inventories. I am not sure whether we are anywhere near a bottom but I do know that I am going to be a buyer at around $98 depending, of course, on PA.
Click to expand...


Good idea - 3.35pm it is then - see ya there:LOL:
 
From the sounds of the locals on the floor this morning its going to be a volatile day!!

Stay safe everyone. High probability setups all the way...
 
trader_dante said:
you know I wrote on another thread recently about how people always say "pins are all well and good but if nigerian militants kidnap and kill another 5 oil rig workers, your hourly pin on Crude will mean sweet FA".

Funny thing is, there never seem to be any Nigerian militants around when the disprovers need them ;)
Click to expand...


This is incredibly bizarre, but Crude has just formed a pin bar to go short at a resistance point and just as the pin triggers our squarwk says that "Reports are coming in that Nigerian Militants have hijacked an Oil rig"....you couldn't make this sh*t up.
 
Glenborrell said:
There is a pin that has formed on gold on the hourlies.

What are peoples thoughts on this? Just am not sure as it's formed on the first bar of the day between 7 and 8.

It's bouncing off 775 which has been support in Nov 07, Dec 07 and Mid Aug 08. Lines up with 38 fib from may 04 lows to Mar 08 highs.

Be interested in peoples opinion.

Cheers,

Glen
Click to expand...

My thoughts are to wait for confirmation that the down trend (monthly tf March confirmed pin July) has completed. (I can see support just below 700, I think 774 has been broken through).

If you are entering & monitoring on the hourly I can see there is potential up to 790 or possibly 800, but its outside of my comfort zone!

I don't know if that helps
good trading
Paul
 
options said:
Hey TD.

Squark box. Useful or not?

It's not as stupid a question as it first seems.
Click to expand...

Here at my firm we use Ransquawk. They offer it for free with IG Index but it has a 30 second delay - although I don't think the realtime service is particularly costly.

I think its useful and would certainly use it if I traded from home. Even if you don't trade the news, which I don't, it is useful to get a general feel for what the market is, or will be, focusing on. The analysis is excellent.
 
Hmmmm. May be worthwhile having it on in the background. Works ok for the 'no brainers'

ie Lehmans eps expected at xx. Came out worse. Would have had time to get in short on dow before it dropped.

Beats trying to read the DJ news wires.

Wouldn't use it to try and trade lehmans or such like. Price returned very quick on 'rescue' news etc. Hence, my not so stupid question.

Always been a chart scalper for this sort of thing as it is reflected in the price fairly quickly.
But as I say for the 'no brainer' it could provide an additional edge.

Thanks TD. Never knew any pros that actually used squawks so couldn't form an opionion either way
 
My chart for gold (monthly) has a really nice pin, broken at 892. Price currently at 763. So it goes to show that if you can stomach the wider stops and 'noise' of the lower TFs this strategy can really make you lots of pips.
First support I have on monthly is 700 area with 690 below that, so there could be a lng way to go yet? I'm watching the weekly for a retracement to get back short on the monthly pin maybe. What do others think? Will an oil rebound send gold back up again perhaps??

Good advice on the Gold PaulKing too. Always pays I think to stick with the major TF trends if you are unsure. I have found my least stressful and worry free pin trades are the ones that go with the major TF trends. I'm not saying that counter trend is rubbish, as that's the whole idea of this trading style, trying to catch the major moves that have run out of steam! It's just better for the less frequent trader?

TD..
You are right on the Nigerian oil thing! Do you have a crystal ball LOL!! Can you recommend some lottery numbers for this week? :)
Grim
 
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Gold - with the benefit of hindsight!

grimweasel said:
My chart for gold (monthly) has a really nice pin, broken at 892. Price currently at 763. So it goes to show that if you can stomach the wider stops and 'noise' of the lower TFs this strategy can really make you lots of pips.
First support I have on monthly is 700 area with 690 below that, so there could be a lng way to go yet? I'm watching the weekly for a retracement to get back short on the monthly pin maybe. What do others think? Will an oil rebound send gold back up again perhaps??

Good advice on the Gold PaulKing too. Always pays I think to stick with the major TF trends if you are unsure. I have found my least stressful and worry free pin trades are the ones that go with the major TF trends. I'm not saying that counter trend is rubbish, as that's the whole idea of this trading style, trying to catch the major moves that have run out of steam! It's just better for the less frequent trader?

Grim
Click to expand...

Hi Grim

Is your monthly pin July (990 stop, 890 entry)?
The retracement got to 920, but thats still a large stop
On the weekly there is a pin at the end of the month too (990 stop, 950 entry), still pretty large and scarily it then had a much greater retracement

I'd be interested to know where you had your problem areas set for this one (T1 850, T2 750, T3 690 can we forecast 600 T4 or even 550 T5; or has the down trend 'run out of steam'?)

Also how far did you keep your stop back - would you still be at 850 level at the moment, looking at the weekly timeframe?

I'd be interested in getting in on the short side too from above 800 - stop at just over 820. Where are you looking for?

Is there a close relationship between gold & oil then?
If so, given TDs terrorism will gold chase oil back up!


good trading all
Paul
 
PaulKing said:
Hi Grim

Is your monthly pin July (990 stop, 890 entry)?
The retracement got to 920, but thats still a large stop
On the weekly there is a pin at the end of the month too (990 stop, 950 entry), still pretty large and scarily it then had a much greater retracement

I'd be interested to know where you had your problem areas set for this one (T1 850, T2 750, T3 690 can we forecast 600 T4 or even 550 T5; or has the down trend 'run out of steam'?)

Also how far did you keep your stop back - would you still be at 850 level at the moment, looking at the weekly timeframe?

I'd be interested in getting in on the short side too from above 800 - stop at just over 820. Where are you looking for?

Is there a close relationship between gold & oil then?
If so, given TDs terrorism will gold chase oil back up!


good trading all
Paul
Click to expand...

Hi Paul,
Yes, the pin is the same as the one you are looking at. I'm not in this trade either. I've been sodding about on the 1hr and not getting anywhere. It's only recently since I have come out to the larger TF's that I've seen the huge moves standing out!

I have the next problem area as where the PA is now ,at 755 ish, on an ascending TL on the weekly starting from 415 area. Below that is the 700 SR area and Fib 61% from monthly low to high at 729. ( but with no SR).

There may be a retrace to the SR at 845 ish. Looking at a line chart of the monthly is there are very large H&S pattern forming? If the right shoulder needs to form could we see a move to the 50% fib at 642?? Too early to prejudge but something to keep an eyey on!!

I'd have my stop at 850 as I think this is an important SR and double Fib level Paul!

Trend Lines and SR Levels.
Something else I have been doing of late is drawing my S/R on the LINE charts and not the candles. I find that the pivots really stand out better; as the lines use closing prices are they are better way than the tops/bottoms of bars/candles? I read once that closing prices are where the pros have left prices with good reason and that bar tops/bottoms are rejected prices?? The odd thing is that using this method the Fibs seem to line up with greater accuracy?

What's your take on this TD and others?
Grim
 
grimweasel said:
Hi Paul,
Yes, the pin is the same as the one you are looking at. I'm not in this trade either. I've been sodding about on the 1hr and not getting anywhere. It's only recently since I have come out to the larger TF's that I've seen the huge moves standing out!

I have the next problem area as where the PA is now ,at 755 ish, on an ascending TL on the weekly starting from 415 area. Below that is the 700 SR area and Fib 61% from monthly low to high at 729. ( but with no SR).

There may be a retrace to the SR at 845 ish. Looking at a line chart of the monthly is there are very large H&S pattern forming? If the right shoulder needs to form could we see a move to the 50% fib at 642?? Too early to prejudge but something to keep an eyey on!!

I'd have my stop at 850 as I think this is an important SR and double Fib level Paul!

Trend Lines and SR Levels.
Something else I have been doing of late is drawing my S/R on the LINE charts and not the candles. I find that the pivots really stand out better; as the lines use closing prices are they are better way than the tops/bottoms of bars/candles? I read once that closing prices are where the pros have left prices with good reason and that bar tops/bottoms are rejected prices?? The odd thing is that using this method the Fibs seem to line up with greater accuracy?

What's your take on this TD and others?
Grim
Click to expand...

Yep.You can still use candles. Just use the bodies though. The rest is just noise and testing for supply and demand.
 
I also look at the direction Crude is trading as it runs the whole show. Its smack bang on the weekly 50sma now. Can anyone really see it going to 70-80$ I just can't. Anyone have any other idea's
 
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